I am in Copenhagen this morning, and was all yesterday. I am attending a meeting of the EU funded Horizon 2020 project that I have been working as part of for the last two years. It has been interesting to gauge the mood on Brexit, because it seems to me to have changed quite fundamentally over the last few months.
Until recently the mood was always bemusement as to why the UK wanted to leave the EU. Now that has moved. The mood is one of boredom with the issue. And there is even intolerance as a result of the UK's utter inability to decide what it wants. The desire is to move on from the irritation and distraction that the UK is continually causing. And to also move on from the barrage of anti-EU sentiment that is directed at those from the other member states by those
In the Leave movement who seem to have no idea about our inter-dependencies.
The feeling is that if we are daft enough to have voted to leave, and have not had the wit to change that by now, then we deserve the consequences, and must live with them. And that they will now do too. They have suffered enough abuse. Us leaving is a price worth paying for recovery of their ability to work together in harmony again.
So where there was once tolerance and sympathy there is now only frustration.
Where there was once a desire to see us realise our error there is now little desire to find common ground: that commonality has been destroyed and the memory of so much disruption from the UK has come to the fore.
And when I suggested there might be revocation of Article 50 there was almost a horror expressed that this might simply perpetuate their suffering of UK membership when that could only mean they could not address the more fundamental questions to which we are now only a perpetual obstacle.
I was amongst friends last night. But their friendship for the UK has run out. We are simply a pain now. And they ere entirely sympathetic with their leaders only offering a short deadline extension to a UK prime minister who they revile because of her complete incompetence.
I was asked what I felt would happen now. It was agreed by all that the options were no deal, revocation, May's Deal (about which there was bafflement as to the reasons for rejection) and, maybe, a long delay because the ‘red lines' had been torn up.
I suggested that there was little chance of agreement on alternative red lines now. I felt a long delay was off the table. Most Tories, at least, are not listening or looking for that.
I think May's deal has no chance. Politically it satisfies no one now.
Revocation does have a chance. It now has the best alternative chance, in my opinion. But much as I would like to believe it I cannot see it happening.
And that leaves no deal. I said a few weeks ago that I thought this had the highest chance. I would now rank that as high as 90%.
And if it happens it is the end for the UK. This will no longer be a United Kingdom.
There will instead be the demise of a once great nation that will sink to having the status of a minor state on the geographic periphery of Europe, isolated from all its neighbours, left struggling to survive and meet the demands of those who live within it whose expectations will be so sorely mismatched with the reality that they have created.
Whether it will be able to contain the resulting stresses is anyone's guess. It's not hard to imagine turmoil.
And this is what we are letting May walk us towards because no one will apparently stop her.
And our Opposition appears to be as without a plan as to what to do as May is, a point noted by all I discussed this with, all of whom are astute political observers.
To describe my mood as sombre is to be kind to it.
I never thought I would live through a crisis like this, where the chance of dismemberment and failure of the country in which I have lived throughout my life has become so high that I can almost now sense the ball is rolling and has become unstoppable. And yet that is the way it is.
I will always live in hope.
But my hope has been reduced now to a desire that this national self destruction might at last be peaceful. That is because it cannot be successful against any known criteria. But let's at least hope that we can tear ourselves apart politically, economically and socially without a greater harm being unleashed. That is a massive hope that it may be unreasonable to have. But that is as good as my hope now gets to be.
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We seem to be in thrall to our history, why is it we are ruled by rememberances to the good old days? The right demand that Britain can again rule the waves and the left are led by a dogma that determines an us and them attitude.
I see no prospect of this changing until we abandon the two party system and the die-hard zealots are dead.
I don’t expect the rest of the world will wait for us while we sort this out.
At the eleventh hour their is no hope. In the words of the amazing Swedish schoolgirl climate activist “we don’t want your hope, we want action”.
I’m with you Bob
The issue with abandoning the 2 party system, though I do see the attraction, is that the zealots on the fringes have even more power and influence. As centrelef/centre right politicians look to cobble together coalitions!!
Neill says:
“The issue with abandoning the 2 party system, though I do see the attraction, is that the zealots on the fringes have even more power and influence. ”
I’m inclined to disagree. The right fringe of UKIP obtained undue influence because of David Cameron’s fear of them, despite that they were probably doing more damage amongst the ‘hangers and floggers’ of Labour voters.
Had UKIP been a Party in their own right with electoral chances under PR they would have had to have had more coherent policies and defend them. As it was they prompted the Tory party to move towards being something worse than it had been. (From my admittedly partisan view point). The corollary would have been a chance for the Greens to develop a distinctive and growing platform on the ‘liberal’ and progressive left. I think we’d have had a much more healthy polity than the two split broad churches we have now which have served us so ill over Brexit whilst doing precious little to address what have been real concerns for the country and still are.
History may well judge the failure of the Lib Dems pathetic attempt to win PR, scuppered by Tory deceit, to have been the turning point that led inexorably to Brexit.
In the UK we have an abundance low-browed knuckle-draggers whose intellectual limitations mean they are always being put upon. They are too dim to understand why this is, but not so dim that they can’t grasp it’s happening. It’s the how and the why which elude them. They understand only that they are nobodies, and never can be anything else, thanks to… well. to what, exactly? That’s beyond them. The Tories both create this class by denying them opportunity and manipulate their resulting frustrations into hatred towards the enemies of the Tory’s choice. With Brexit, the idea of some former (and obviously to the rest of us, imaginary) golden age is created, and the dim-witted are encouraged to bath themselves in reflected glory by association with this fantasy era. Thus, those who’ve had it drummed into them all their miserable lives that they’re nobodies are suddenly somebodies. They now have identity! They’re British, in their tiny minds, and this is precious to them because it’s the first time in their lives they’ve been able to feel good about themselves, even by association (apart from football, which I’d think does something very similar). This is why the obvious nonsense of Brexit has such appeal to a certain demographic. Nothing wrong with mob rule if you can control the mob, some would say, and the Tories do exactly that. Bernays comes to mind here. O course, these people would be even worse off if no deal Brexit happened and we were effectively invaded by American finance, but no doubt the Tories would find a way to deflect anger away from the real causes. I hope it becomes doubly apparent now why education and the law are under such heavy attack and have been since the Tories regained power. They cannot prosper against an educated majority with access to justice.
I think that the Tories already have deflected the blame, it is the will of the people.
You know, reading through your response about dim witted nobodies with tiny minds, I can see why and how we have become so polarised as a country. Intelligence is not a prerequisite of kindness.
Quite obviously, the majority of people are not experts which is precisely why we need expert opinion, to offer us advice and guidance to enable us to make better decisions – especially ones that concern our future economic stability and prospects. However, we also need experts and leaders whom we can trust who recognise that vulnerable people need to be protected and cared for, not misled in order to be put down, punished and blamed for the ensuing chaos.
Reference feedback from the EU that the UK is essentially seen as a pain – it would be sweet justice for A50 to be revoked, and for the UK to remain in the UK.
Boredom?
I watched Junker and Barnier being interviewed last night and you know, people were laughing during questions being asked. It was worse than being bored. We were being laughed at I felt (although it was from exasperation and maybe not contempt). And why not?
What has been happening has been rather farcical. The mother of parliaments is an unfit mother we find.
Back in 2016 when the result came through I ruminated then that we would have to come out and only then would we learn that there had been a mistake. So I concur with you above on that one.
At least when and if we come out, maybe the old circus portraying our latest spat with the EU will come to an end (all though there is still plenty of scope for a residual blame game to be played out yet). I will not miss that and the opportunity it has given to ‘programme’ our people to see Europe as a ball and chain.
Going forward, having read a lot about the history of the UK in the EU, I think that it is even better if we stay out but maybe somehow get a Norway style foothold in the Single Market. That is the deal I would settle for to be honest and best suits the English temperament at least in my view.
As for the country as it is now, it seems that we are as divided about Europe as we were in 16th century over religion. The only way things can remain peaceful is if we realise that those advocating Leave for the most part have been led astray by dark forces who are cunning and know how to manipulate. And remember, we saw our Prime Minister delivering a shocking speech the other night that crystallised all that has been wrong with the way in which we have been governed since 2010. Divided and conquered by English Fascism.
What did that bloke Jesus say on the cross?
For years the EU has been portrayed as an enemy. During the referendumb, lies were told, some based on racist dogma in a period of some of the harshest austerity in recent British history.
People have been deliberately wound up Richard. How can reason rule in that context?
So when/if it all goes to shite, lets have no ‘I told you so’ eh? When people tell you about their problems as a result of a possible crash out, give them your empathy and your ears instead.
Listen, nod, say soothing words, hear them out and then move on and retain your hope that one day they will understand. But do not hold your breath.
I was talking to two colleagues the other day who just wanted us to come out. A vote had been taken and there was a winner so it was simple as they saw it. The referendumb was being interpreted as a GE. They had no concept of time or other information that had come to light.
One of them wondered why the Government had not made a plan to leave and then held a referendumb to enact it straight away. I have to say it was a good question. I told him that no-one expected that result or had not considered it. He thought that that was stupid because in his line of work you always have to have a Plan A, B, C etc. His estimation of those in Westminster went down a few more notches.
I mention this because no matter how angry we get with ordinary people, make no mistake where the blame lies OK? We are governed by …….well, I am running out of words to describe the lack of required quality of leadership and creativity we have to endure from our so-called elite (should they be called the ‘eshite’?).
The only way to solve that is that we need PR – we need more people to become involved in governing this country because the checks and balances on executive power are there within this country’s people – look at the quality of regular commentators (supporters?) here for example. Look a the the over 2 million signing the A50 petition. Good people abound this nation. They just need a route to affect policy intent and outcomes.
We just need to find a way to weave this/them/us into our governance. That is the long ball game we need to keep playing – no matter what.
Will it be such a bad thing if the UK breaks up? I am not convinced. There is ZERO chance the Irish would give up their autonomy, and no Irish person believes the Scots would not be better off as an independent nation in the EU. The truth is that the UK has been a protection racket for a privileged few forever.
On almost every metric of human welfare Ireland is ahead of every UK nation. And the single most important reason for it is proportional representation. It’s a fairer, more equal country.
Pj says:
“Will it be such a bad thing if the UK breaks up? I am not convinced. ”
I don’t think it would be at all bad for Scotland. Though I’m sure Westminster unionists would make it as painful a process as they can get away with.
“… and no Irish person believes the Scots would not be better off as an independent nation in the EU. ”
There is still a significant number of Scots who don’t see it that way. I’m not sure what they think they get from the current union, but they believe it is still serving them well. After three years of the Brexit shambles, and nearly a decade of declared austerity, it’s surely not in good governance ….either political or economic (?) Mind you they totally discount the extent to which the current Holyrood government has sheltered Scots from the worst of Westminster policies.
Bad for England and Wales ? Short term probably bad, yes. Longer term it ought to be good as they learn to be self sufficient, and self reliant.
I have spent a lot of time in Ireland over the years and the historical lack of investment – a lot of actual recent investment is due to the EU BTW – is still evident in the country even though I find much to like about it. I have two brothers living there and I can assure you, Ireland has its problems. No rose tinted spectacles here please.
I’m not particularly keen on their low tax regime for inward investment either which makes the EU grants seem as if they are subsidising the low tax regime when the tax regime should be used for re-investment.
And if you’re over there, take a look at some of the social housing. When I went over there in the late 90’s the estate I saw when leaving Dublin’s main station to go to Tipperary looked as bad as any of the many housing estates in the UK after years of Thatcherism – if not worse. Every Irishman I bought Guinness for and shared a packet of Tayto’s with was eager to tell me how ‘shite’ Ireland was before the EU.
As for breaking up the UK? Ask any right wing, nationalist faction first and then think about consequences after that.
Think hard.
Nationalism and fascism are in the ascendant. Just as we are supposed to be drawing closer together in the face of environmental, economic and resource collapse, we are instead putting up barriers everywhere in the world it seems.
Great! Just great!
You will find that the independentists of Scotland are majority NOT right wing. Most would also not describe themselves as nationalist, in the sense you use. We just want to be a normal country, making decisions within our country, not the bigger population next door. We want to interact with our neighbours in friendly concord, wherever they live.
Toni
Please be reassured that my criticism of nationalism is based on what I see of English nationalism and not the Scottish version which I have always seen as a reaction to English arrogance and racism. In many ways, such nationalism is acceptable and understandable to a large degree given that Scotland has been treated as a chattel of England.
But the nationalism I see in England – based as it is on the lies and misunderstandings about Europe is not acceptable to me.
For too many people in England, the wars with Scotland and the wars with France and Germany – it’s as though they have never stopped. It’s bizarre. It’s a sickness.
Anyhow – I hope that clears that up.
EAS. Thanks for your reply and the sentiments in it. It comes as a relief that Scotland’s people are seen as reasonable!
much of your description of the harm is equally applicable to what will befall the Eurozone….
Teflon Don says:
“……much of your description of the harm is equally applicable to what will befall the Eurozone…. ” (Query: do you mean Eurozone as opposed to EU ?)
And either way …..does that make it OK in someway ?
Even if were to be true, which I doubt.