For two years Theresa May has sought to kick the Brexit can down the road, hoping rather than expecting that something might come up that might resolve the irreconcilable demands of the various parties she faces.
Nothing has come up.
The Chequers Deal felt like her last gasp attempt to solve this problem and appease all parties.
It has failed. It has not appeased the Tory right and now, entirely predictably, it has been resoundingly rejected by the EU.
So now May goes on a walking holiday knowing she faces a decision.
She could, of course, resign, saying she has done her best and now others must have a go. She would go down miserably in history, but she may get her life back. She will be tempted.
She could call an election. It is hard to see how that helps her beleaguered party. I don't think she will choose that option. Others may yet do it for her.
She could say we will go over the cliff. Forty MPs could drive the country to Hard Brexit and the now appreciated almost unimaginable difficulties that will create.
Or she could say she accepts the EU's offer of a customs union. They say it is on the table. Labour will support it.
Her life expectancy as PM is limited in this case. Many Tories will hate her for it. The country would not forgive her for reaching this position. Her legacy will still be grim in political terms. But the country would gain. And for that her party might just gain.
You could argue there are more options. At this juncture I don't think there are many more in reality.
And there is only one viable one.
Will May see the true path whilst walking in the Alps? Time will tell. But for now May has to realise her Can has been crushed. She's out of road. She has to decide. That is what PM's are paid to do. And in reality she really has only one viable choice. She has to finally tell the Tory right that they cannot have their way. But that does not mean she will, based on past precedent.
Supposedly politics now goes into its summer break. I can't see that happening this year. Not entirely. There's far too much to do. And far too much that can still go wrong for that to happen.
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There’s always the possibility that this constant changing of decisions is just a smoke screen for a planned hard Brexit?
Possibly
Probably
Probably – it’s what the hard Right, ESG gang who drive today’s Tories want, along with the aging socially conservative Tory membership.
No doubt the Mogg-Johnson faction wish it were so and endeavour to make it so, but given the fractures within the Tories, this can’t be seriously accepted as party policy, because, simply, there is no Tory party any more, and no common policy which could be ascribed to it either.
I don’t think it is what May wanted, but it may be what she lands us with. In which case she will have been outmanoeuvred by the ‘conspirators’ who don’t exist (?)
They are there you know…. they are hiding behind the arras. Where they always were; while poor players strut and fret their hour upon the stage and then are heard (of) no more.
She should just abandon the whole stupid thing and let people get on with their live to try and recover from the damage that has already been done to peoples savings and future prospects.
Theresa May is not the first politician in history to kick the can down the road (just like other PMs since time immemorial); only to find that she has unexpectedly reached the end of the road. Who knew that would happen? Everybody. May’s peculiarly abject failure is that she is the person who very deliberately marked the end of the road on the map, when she date-stamped Article 50. She only has herself to blame.
The Government has taken two years to negotiate EU withdrawal. Two years for the Conservative Party, very carefully and deliberately to negotiate, exclusively with itself; and fail. Two years of utterly wasted time, pointless argument, and systematic folly. Let us be clear; only the Conservative Party interest has even registered in that purely internal negotiation: nothin else, not British interests, still less any consideration of the EU response or interest in the future of Europe. Virtuallt the only effort of the British Government has not been to negotiate with the EU, but fly around European capitals in a crude and crass attempt to divide the EU, and feed off the divisions. Divide and rule; the grim stirrings of the politics of a long dead, unforgiven and unmissed, toxic Europe of the past is being shaken into new life – by Britain.
Let us be quite clear. There has been no real negotiation with the EU. The Conservative Government has continually presented proposals that it must have known would prove unacceptable to the EU. Typically each key proposal has taken only a few hours for the EU to reject Conservative proposals, so far have they been from serious, negotiable consideration; and typically, the failure is outright: back to the drawing-board. We must presume this is deliberate British Government purpose; whether the corollary of this outcome is ‘deliberate’ – No Deal – is harder to tell; because the Conservatives do not know what they want; save staying permanently in office, perhaps even in power. The problem is that the Conservative Party and Government has continually fed the British people the lie that Brexit means Brexit: meaning, you can have your cake and eat it: and the compliant, complicit Britsh media have nurtured the toxic popular belief that if you cannot have you cake and eat it, the fault rests solely with the EU. We are drowning in a fetid sewer of our own making.
The inability of the British Government to find not even a solution, but simply a credible proposal that might work for both communities in Ireland, is merely symptomatic; though the popular undercurrent of Brexiteer indifference to the plight of Ireland in this predicament, compared with the supposed ‘liberty’ of Britain is uncomfortably telling.
The latest British customs proposal in the May Chequers fudge (the UK to collect EU taxes) is so obviously unacceptable – quite, quite ludicrous – it should never have seen the light of day. Ever. It speaks of desperation, only nobody can be that desperate; so it presumably was intended to fail …..
John S Warren :
Can’t see much to argue with in your assessment of the last two years and where we are now.
The only thing wrong is that having failed abjectly to achieve a viable Brexit deal (‘No Deal’ is quite simply not a logically available option) we are not in a position to revert to where we started. Staus quo ante the beginning of the charade.
That really should always have been the default position in case of failure to negotiate a settlement.
The mistake therefore goes right back to the signing of article fifty: a divorce agreement with no case law and no precedents. Madness.
The crushed can is le mot juste! Well turned indeed.
IF May is the seriously minded vicar’s daughter…. perhaps the path of courage and selflessness might ocurr to her on some sylvan ramble. Come back, do the courageous thing, confront her Party and the slavering tabloids, call out the Referendum for the shabby, suborned advisory, dodgily foreign funded fake that it really was – and withdraw Article 50, take a still united UK back into Europe and dare the Commons to vote for chaos and mayhem in the face of popular common sense. …… IF…. – but I fear not. She has a long and ignoble track record of talking big and acting small and of self-regard trumping (can one still use the word?) every other consideration.
Perhaps our only hope in that quarter – and a thin one at that – is that she seeks to share the crushed can round with the rabble multitude and pass the crumpled tin to a two stage referendum. But I actaually fear she’ll do neither but return grimly determined to take us all down with her – over the cliff.
Nigel, I wholeheartedly agree with your view as to what a courageous May should do but she is not courageous and the dark forces behind a hard Brexit should not be underestimated. I genuinely fear a violent uprising if government or parliament disobeys the people’s instruction to leave.
A more realistic hope is that once the decision is made and passed by parliament (whether that be deal or no deal) it is put to a people’s vote. This is wholly justifiable on the basis that:
– we heard what you said in 2016 and have done the best that can be done to do what you said
– but we all now know that dodgy money, foreign interference and bare-faced lies were applied by both sides so nobody was really sure what they were voting for
– we now know so please decide, do we (a) withdraw our Article 50 notification and go back to where we were 30 months ago or (b) leave on the basis set out.
I don’t like this idea any more than you do but I dislike it less than a violent revolution, the break-up of the UK and/or a black-shirt government.
PS: Apologies to any grammar buffs who think parliament and/or government should start with capital letters but right now, I don’t think either of them deserve it.
I fear a violent rising when they do follow the instruction to leave
Which violent rising is the better one?
I guess that is why EURef2 is the best outcome now
I’d second Richard’s take on the more probable origins of such violent disturbance as might occur. As a long-time supporter of Scotland’s independence within Europe (the EU), I feel that my country, at least, may escape the disaster, but I have no desire at all to see the rest of Britain so debased and isolated. Scotland’s repeated pleas for the mildest of ‘Brexits’ have been a genuine search for the least damaging way forward – but we all know that this has been utterly ignored and the disaster – bar that slender EU Ref 2 hope – seems now to be the only likely outcome. These are definitely NOT the circumstances we would have wanted to surround our independence.
Taking into account under-18s somewhat less than a third of the British people as a whole actively voted Leave. This is hardly an ‘instruction’ by the ‘people’ let alone anything approaching moderately robust ‘advice’, especially given polls now suggest that less than a quarter of the UK population would actively vote or be eligible to vote Leave in a second EU referendum. If, following a car crash Brexit next March, supermarkets ration food, I fear riots by the two thirds of the UK population that didn’t vote Leave.
George says:
“…… I genuinely fear a violent uprising if government or parliament disobeys the people’s instruction to leave…..”
That, of course is an interpretation of a flawed referendum process, a narrative ‘meme’ which politicians of both main parties have cravenly succumbed to and signally failed to challenge.
A general election in a functional democracy would see well over half the seats in parliament occupied by different posteriors. On both sides of the house.
(The appropriate ‘capital’ for government and parliament precedes ‘punishment’.) 🙂
Nigel Mace says:
“…..These are definitely NOT the circumstances we would have wanted to surround our independence.”
Indeed not. Scotland needs an unruly socially deprived, next-door neighbour, basket case like it needs a hole in the head.
It is hard to believe that those who make decisions on behalf of the electorate, well-educated people by all accounts, can be so singularly stupid. Surely a fundamental aspect of negotiating is understanding the position of the other party. I have known, amongst many thousands of other people (experts and non-experts) that a cherry picked Brexit was never going to fly. Never. So basically our government has pissed away the best part of two years trying to negotiated the un-negotiable and consequently leaves the nation on the edge of a precipice. The willingness of conservative politicians (not all, I assume) to sacrifice any kind of dignity and self-respect to stay in power is not just unedifying, it is destructive of our social fabric. Things work because we have some expectations of decorum from our ‘leaders’. What we see on a daily basis is a complete abrogation of responsibility and naked ambition. I hope to God that the Conservatives as a political party are destroyed on the back of Brexit.
“I fear a violent rising when they do follow the instruction to leave”
I find it difficult to imagine mobs storming through the streets of Accrington or Bognor to be confronted by the massed riot shields of the local constabularies, or the city centres of Leeds and Bristol taken over by “Peoples’ Committees of Public Safety”. There will be few supermarkets in Bexleyheath or Didsbury plundered by starving angry impromtu rioters, and I think it unlikely that popular militias will form in Stockton or Plymouth. Perhaps there will be marches in London, movint towards Parliament, but only a few hotheads will smash shop windows and hurl excrement at the police. Nor is it likely the military will charge the protestors sabres drawn to resurrect Peterloo. A violent rising would need to be organised – er – who has the ruthlessness and cunning and ideological conviction and fierce energy to organise some British equivalent to the Dublin Easter Rising or the storming of the Bastille or the Winter Palace? Not Farrago, not Banks, not Rees Mogg (Robespierre????!!!), not Fatty Fox nor Bonkers Boris nor puff cheeked Gove- nor indeed Corbyn nor McDonnell nor any of the other would be heroes of the hard left. The British do not have the stomach for a true hot blooded revolution. When the chaos comes they will be singing Bluebirds Over the White Cliffs of Dover and We’ll Meet Again and queuing for blue ration cards and saying Mustn’t Grumble……….No, there will be no serious violence and no massacres in the streets and no smoking ruined buildings.
Mikie
You’re ignoring food shortages
Tgat’s When violence will happen
The government already knows it
That’s when they’ll call in the mercenaries. What else can they do after so diminishing both the police and the army? Which in turn will give them the problem of getting rid of said mercs when things eventually calm down…
Bill Kruse says:
“That’s when they’ll call in the mercenaries. What else can they do after so diminishing both the police and the army? ”
You have rather missed the point of the ‘War on Terror’ Bill.
The police force is now a lethally armed paramilitary rganisation (for our protection) and has electronic surveillance everywhere. You can’t walk more than a hundred yards or drive a mile without being observed….and it can all be done retrospectively with facial recognition software and the numbers may be small, but how many makes an effective snatch squad? Have you not noticed that the standard police vehicle is no longer a panda car, but a panel van ?
Join the dots.
The American guy who has designed a 3D printable firearm has done so for citizens to protect themselves ….against the forces of ‘law’.
I continue to have more faith in the police than that
Why?
I think they may not side with a government that turns against its own people
I quite like Thomas Palley’s paper on the failure of Neoliberal ideology after 70 years, especially in reference to the EU, although Palley fails to see how MMT is part of his anti-Neoliberalism campaign:-
https://www.peri.umass.edu/component/k2/item/1096-globalization-checkmated-political-and-geopolitical-contradictions-coming-home-to-roost
Your point about MMT is well made. Nevertheless Palley understands the nature of the flaw in neoliberalism, whether economic or political: “Economists’ thinking rests on the ideal of competitive general equilibrium which frames modern economic theory. That theory justifies the neoliberal economic paradigm, and trade theory extends the paradigm into the international sphere via application of the principle of comparative advantage which supposedly determines the pattern of specialization and trade. Given this framework, globalization is presented as inevitable and unstoppable owing to the forces of technology and mutually beneficial gains from trade.” (Palley, p.3)
As far as it goes, that will do!
Raab and ERG maniacs will continue to not negotiate, demand impossible into October.
We’ll then be in no deal territory.
Grieve, Soubry and saner people will know by that time that no deal can’t happen.
(food would run out in 2 days, especially with panic buying, the supply chain is all JIT and industry doesn’t have storage capacity = there is not stock piling option, it’s impossible)
National government (moderates peel off leaving Tories as rump of ERG fantatics and Labour as rump of Lexiters).
Article 50 extension.
Soft brexit.
Election laws fixed up.
*pipe dream moment* PR – since 2.5 party FPTP now dead.
National govt dissolves.
General election.
That’s maybe what should happen
But will it?
I’m not at all sure now
My observation, whenever Tory rebels want to rebel is they ultimately cave if it is a vote that would bring down the government… it is always in mind of a general election and Corbyn in No 10.
I once read a comment from a journlist that said there are Tories who *actively fear* him becoming elected – agree or not that is some of their thinking.
Paul ….
offers a scenario…. Ending with ‘General election’ as the consequence.
That could be forced by the principled resignation of Conservative remainers or just their refusal to support a suicidal government. If they could rely on the backing of a Labour party so determined to keep aside the fray that they would probably support a Tory Brexit.
So it will grind on inexorably into a shambles until no options are left and our ignoble representatives don’t have to make any decision.
One thing Theresa May has in spades is determination. She will carry on doing her duty (as she see it) to the bitter end, whether or not that is a good idea.
She won’t resign, unless leant upon to do so for the good of the party; but it is about 9 months early for that; I expect to see a lot of jockeying for position by the end of this year. And she won’t call an election; look what happened last time, and this time would not be any better).
So she is left with trying to cobble together a new proposal; but given the failure of the Chequers compromise, which it seems was not acceptable to either side, it is difficult to see what new proposal could be found. Or to veer towards “hard Brexit”, blaming it on the inflexibility of the EU, of course; or to veer towards continued EU entanglement for the foreseeable future, and risk being branded a traitor, enemy of the people, etc.
It will not end well.
I’ve long been a supporter of a second referendum. “This is what we have negotiated. Is this really what you want? Final answer?” And if we vote to leave again, we deserve whatever we get.
Andrew says:
“One thing Theresa May has in spades is determination. She will carry on doing her duty (as she see it) to the bitter end, whether or not that is a good idea.
She won’t resign, unless leant upon to do so for the good of the party….”
I agree with that assessment of May.
What we call perseverance in ourselves we call stubbornness in others. I cannot imagine she will step aside from choice. She has the hallmarks of a mule.
This was always about the Conservative Party, and it is less and less about Mrs May.
It may well be that a mediocrity, with no ability or willingness to lead, and a modest talent for switching positions and kicking the can down the road, was and is the ‘least worst’ leader the Conservative party could get.
They deserved either better, or far, far worse.
Anyone else, good, bad, or terrible, would’ve ended up with the bus in a ditch, to the left or the right and split apart; or they themselves would have been ditched.
In any case, no-one was stupid enough, or brave enough, to try and seize the wheel.
So here we are. Mrs May is still Prime Minister and the wheels haven’t fallen off the bus: they are firmly nailed onto the sides of the ramshackle charabanc, rattling and screeching down the steepening precipice, with Mrs May at the steering wheel, white knuckles and eyes firmly shut, and hooting lunatics cheering “Faster! Faster!” in the back.
The odious Mr. Osborne showed a surprising adroitness in getting off the bus: it disturbs me that so many members of the Labour Party willingly jumped on.
As for “Will we, Won’t we”, so much damage has already been done – not least, to the democratic process and our electorate’s ability to get the truth and to discuss it without ‘help’ from an extremely effective machine for injecting lies into our conversations – that the rational actions and precautions of all major people conomic actors, in response to the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’, are effectively a Brexit in themselves.
In short: it no longer matters whether anyone or no-one – or a nobody who played to racists and authoritarians at the Home Office – is pretending to be ‘driving’. We are already clattering down the cliff, and we can already see the rocks at the bottom.
At times, I loathe the ‘helpful’ contributions of autocorrect.
This was always about the Conservative Party, and it is less and less about Mrs May.
It may well be that a mediocrity, with no ability or willingness to lead, and a modest talent for switching positions and kicking the can down the road, was and is the ‘least worst’ leader the Conservative party could get.
They deserved either better, or far, far worse.
Anyone else, good, bad, or terrible, would’ve ended up with the bus in a ditch, to the left or the right and split apart; or they themselves would have been ditched.
In any case, no-one was stupid enough, or brave enough, to try and seize the wheel.
So here we are. Mrs May is still Prime Minister and the wheels haven’t fallen off the bus: they are firmly nailed onto the sides of the ramshackle charabanc, rattling and screeching down the steepening precipice, with Mrs May at the steering wheel, white knuckles and eyes firmly shut, and hooting lunatics cheering “Faster! Faster!” in the back.
The odious Mr. Osborne showed a surprising adroitness in getting off the bus: it disturbs me that so many members of the Labour Party willingly got on.
As for “Will we, Won’t we”, so much damage has already been done – not least, to the democratic process and our electorate’s ability to get the truth and to discuss it without ‘help’ from an extremely effective machine for injecting lies into our conversations – that the rational actions and precautions of all major economic actors, in response to the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’, are effectively a Brexit in themselves.
In short: it no longer matters whether anyone or no-one – or a nobody who played to racists and authoritarians at the Home Office – is pretending to be ‘driving’. We are already clattering down the cliff, and we can already see the rocks at the bottom.