A quick screenshot from The Times Red Box email this morning:
If evidence that irrationality is alive and well and living in the UK is required, this is it.
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What would the chart of a rational electorate look like, given the parties are what they are?
must be because the Tories are “so good” at running the economy :-S
Companies House/Govt take action with a first successful prosecution for false company information!!
Sorry if this is not really the right place for this, although ‘neck and neck’ strikes me as a possibly appropriate title for the sequence of events.
The story behind this prosecution is a sorry tale of an activist who has drawn attention to the CH scandal and, as is typical, he has been prosecuted while the scandal which he vividly demonstrated remains unaddressed:
https://twitter.com/OliverBullough/status/985574754420654080
No doubt you can work this into your next article about CH.
On the blog today
Thanks
I guess all those Corbyn smears and a bit of jingoistic lets bomb ’em is having the desired affect.
I’m not surprised in the least. Manufactured consent – thanks largely to a compliant and dissembling MSM.
Me neither. Remember what the polls said in May 2017 before Labour had the chance to get any decent exposure?
This is fine as far as it goes, but you also need to know how the vote has moved in these seats as the type of seat can skew the result eg. If these were all by elections in formerly Labour held seats, this would be bad for Labour and vice versa.
From some of the analysis I’ve seen I suspect the Tories have been doing worse overall.
It was just a curiosity: I would not extrapolate it too far
“It was just a curiosity: I would not extrapolate it too far”
No, but I don’t think Ben has done that. He has merely added the obvious and necessary proviso.
The only safe conclusion that I can see is that there is something to be said for the potential of a full Progressive Alliance.
I was at a literary festival at the weekend, and attending a Maybot – John Crace review and one of the most popular comments made was by David Runciman who said that “as we all know, the polls are pretty useless, aren’t they”.
Quite so. So don’t worry.
Paul
To not ‘worry’ would be naive & complacent. While public opinion polling is a sophisticated marketing tool it’s not a precise science. There are too many variables – quantitative & qualitative aspects of the sample, methodology, geography, wording of the questionnaire, timing, etc. etc. Hence to expect a result that always accurately predicts the future is unrealistic, and not what the pollsters themselves would sign up for. Unfortunately the media, as per usual, simplistically headline results to get a knee-jerk reaction. However, taking into consideration a statistical margin of error, as a whole and in the absence of anything else, the polls offer some indication as to the direction of public opinion which would be foolish to ignore.
Given the appallingly bad management of the country by this administration it would not be unreasonable to expect Labour to be significantly (i.e. over and above any margin of error) ahead in the polls. The fact that they’re not should be troubling for Corbyn as clearly his messages are not resonating with enough people to the extent that they should. He knows the MSM is hostile so by now should’ve figured out another communication route to influence voters. Although the LP does well on Social Media – its reach isn’t sufficient to win additional votes beyond its ‘soft’ audience.
However, quite reassuring to see the Greens at almost 5%. But they too could and should be scoring a lot better.
Can’t imagine why the SNP and Plaid Cymru did so poorly in the by-elections for the English local authorities among the 227.
A quick session with a calculator shows that the total of the vote for Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru is 57.4%; the Tories and Ukip total 35.1%. (You can argue that some Lib Dem voters lean more towards regressive than progressive views, but not many I think).
So over 50% of the UK electorate hold what could be said progressive views, just over 1/3 hold regressive views. And yet, thanks to FPTP, a product of Labour tribalism as much as unprincipled Tory opportunism, we have a right wing government.
When is Labour going to wake up and unequivocally back PR?
FK, as some might say
Exactly Richard. Labour’s stupidity on this, and their refusal to oppose Brexit properly is ridiculous.
This is a quote from someone in the comments section of a popular blog about UK defence issues.
‘…….What is REALLY sickening is that the Peacenick, CND Luvvie and Commie card carrying idiot that is the Leader of Her Majesty’s (not so) Loyal Opposition simply cannot stop looking for every party political point scoring opportunity and is even now banging on like some 18 year old student at Aldermaston. It is utterly frightening to think this man seeks to have HIS finger on that big red nuclear button so he can say ‘NO!’. That we have had to to do this at all can be squarely blamed on Corbyn’s immediate predecessor who also played party politics with the Nation’s security when he should have stood behind the PM. (For those who may have forgotten his name was Milliband)……’
These opinions are one of the reason why Labour fails to do better. Its difficult to know where to start with these particular views. My guess is that they are far from unique.