Given that university term is over I am, inevitably, aware of the approach of Christmas (not that the work stops, just for the record). I have a strong suspicion that Theresa May might well have the same feeling. With the parliamentary recess looming and another revolt seemingly averted by her backdown on the stupid idea of making the Brexit date legally binding she must be looking forward to a few days of reduced stress. And I rather hope she gets it: my charitable spirit extends that far, and way beyond.
There is good reason for thinking she will need the respite. I believe she, and we, need to brace ourselves for the new year. This is not the moment for reviews of the year past (no doubt I will do that in due course) or even for making predictions for the year to come (which I may, or may not, do). Rather this is about simple contingency planning to survive what is going to happen.
The EU will be a lot harder to deal with in 2018 than it was in 2017. That's because the round two Brexit talks will be much harder than round one. This is unarguable
And as a matter of fact the UK has to secure a Brexit transition agreement because it has no arrangements in place for anything else. In that case since, as Philip Hammond has (unusually for him) correctly said, the UK will have to apply all EU rules during this transition however long it lasts whilst having no say on them, the Brexiteers will be going ballistic sometime soon.
Add to this the fact that the House of Lords will be empowered by the now obvious fragility of May's Common's majority and there is no doubt that in the new year May is going to be under the most enormous pressure on all sides.
If (and it's a big 'if') Labour could set out a plausible soft Brexit negotiating strategy that showed lip service to the Lisbon Treaty whilst using the rules on migration as they are actually written and the same regard on issues such as nationalisation, state aid and other such issues as most states show (i.e. limited compliance to suit their own needs) then her position would become nigh on impossible.
For the sake of the country I rather hope this impossibility develops. But I'm not going to deny her best wishes for a decent Christmas break starting this week despite that fact.
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Even if Labour do come forward with a credible alternative, they still have to devolve immigration among other things, to Scotland. If we in Scotland don’t get differentiation on the brexit package, then I’m afraid Scotland, as a country who voted remain, will be off.
You are more charitable than me Richard – it does you credit.
I’m beginning to see homeless people in my small Derbyshire town now who have been sleeping rough in this severe weather. We haven’t seen this for years.
The Tories are human beings too I suppose……………I suppose?
See Barbara Ellen in the Observer today
When we have homeless nurses something is profoundly wrong
That is a very sad state of affairs and why your work is so important. You have my full support. Please get yourself onto BBC Question Time and highlight why this situation must end.
I appear to have fallen off their list….
I’m afraid at the risk of not sounding like one of the men of ‘good will’ I would wish Theresa May a Christmas of the deepest remorse and self-searching and possibly even a mini-breakdown to awaken a re-evaluation o her values:
1) For staunchly supporting a cruel, vindictive reform of welfare, stigmatising and destroying (in some cases, the lives of some of our most vulnerable citizens:
‘Nearly 90 people a month are dying after being declared fit for work, according to new data that has prompted campaigners
and Labour leadership contenders to call for an overhaul of the government’s welfare regime.
Statistics released by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) revealed that during the period December 2011 and
February 2014 2,380 people died after their claim for employment and support allowance (ESA) ended because a work
capability assessment (WCA) found they were found fit for work. (2015)’
2) Form lying to the public that she would ‘help’ those struggling and claiming that finance could be found for infrastructure projects when it wasn’t
3) For presiding over a real decline in funding for our schools, putting in jeopardy a whole generation of children
4) For backing the Naylor Report, a disgraceful plan to flog off yet more public assets while Ministers and ex-ministers benefit from their private health industry connections.
5) For not saying a thing against Osborne’s illiterate plan to have a structural budget surplus -then saying , when leader, ‘that’s all over now’ without even acknowledging the suffering such thinking has caused our citizens.
6) For saying that Corbyn would ‘bankrupt the country’ when she must know full well that that isn’t possible, thereby lying and deliberately misleading the public for political gain.
7) For saying that Corbyn is on ‘planet Venezuela’ while knowing full well that there is no valid comparison of the two monetary systems, thereby using it s a scare tactic to frighten the public and hold back from them the true economic possibilities that exist.
8)For using, whilst being Home Secretary, the most hideous tactics that have contributed towards tension between different communities in our country.
9) For telling a Nurse, during the election campaign that there was ‘no magic money tree’ when she knows full well that there cannot be a financial restraint on a sovereign currency, only a resource one.
10) Her repeated inability to address the grotesque suffering created by the absurd Universal Credit payment arrangements which are cuasing suffering on a huge scale.
The list could go on. SO I would wish that, Dicken’s like, she is visited by a ghastly ghoul that spirits her around the country and pushes here head into the ‘S-bend’ of the cruel, ideological and meaningless suffering that her ‘value’ system has created.
I’m trying to separate the sin and the sinner Simon
Trying….
I respect that, Richard! I’ve always been drawn to the 17th Century fiery Quakers that encouraged people to go through the pain of seeing their own ‘darkness’ – but it has to be tempered by Love and free from self-righteousness ( the latter a foible of mine that I need to look out for!).
I don’t think we should worry about May’ health too much – politicians have double-thick rhino hide and people like her have fabulous levels of wealth and access to support systems that many of our citizens could barely imagine. These people are masters (sic) of dissimulation and probably know that politics is a bit of a game these days -so I suspect most of the stuff coming at them is water off a duck’s back. It is interesting to note that one rarely sees politicians ill or suffering a nervous breakdown. This is significant itself, in my view. I’ve often suspected that politics draws in people with walnut-shelled egos abounding in excess self-esteem-too much vulnerability and you would fall. it’s a shame it is like that. There are some notable exceptions-but not many I think. But I’d go along with Varoufakis when he said that politicians on the whole were not ‘well meaning.’
In confessional mode, I should say that I have shocked myself with the level of anger, ill will and desire for retribution that I have felt towards some Tories over the last few years. Never in my life did I imagine a bunch of thugs so vile as these to come into power particularly the malevolent homunculus Osborne, whose public school ‘fag’ bashing mentality was applied to the poor and vulnerable.
Still -in order to appreciate the light you have to see the darkness as well – I thank the Tories for helping me see my own whilst viewing theirs!
You’re right about needing to see the darkness
Although I think we have seen too much of it of late
Right on Brother, Simon, Right on.
She should definitely get some quality rest. Her 2018 schedule will be punishing and place a lot of pressure on her health. One often overlooks how the quality of decision-making is influenced by a person’s physical and mental well-being. The Trump presidency has re-focussed attention on this factor. 30 years ago the wonderfully irreverent Osho made this point re. Reagan when he suggested every President (and in fact all major politicians) should be psycho-analysed prior to assuming office, and thereafter to have a resident ‘Meditation Manager’! (Only for the curious! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGaYLUqI5Do).
In May’s case I’d assume the main threat to her health, especially as a diabetic, would be simply exhaustion – from travelling at unsociable hours to Bruxelles, to keeping her loony right at bay – the latter probably being the more stressful. The same observations apply to the LP. If he’s going to up his game as required then Jeremy Corbyn also needs to reinvigorate his physical and mental energy.
So I endorse your sentiments …. a Happy & Healthy Christmas to them both!
Tories, May included, don’t wish ordinary people any goodwill at all, and I’m happy to return the favour.
In fact, I’d suggest that, rather be subject to our goodwill wishes, they should be tried for crimes against humanity:
https://www.ageuk.org.uk/lambeth/about-us/news/articles/2017/study-warns-of-100-excess-deaths-a-day-if-nhs-funding-is-not-increased/
Indeed they should, along with several others, like Blair, Brown, Straw and co. I wish the Tories, large and small, nothing but ill will. It’s not as if we have minor disagreements over the means, while agreeing broadly with the ends. It’s as fundamental as it gets: Tories are, as in the US a la Buffet, engaged in class warfare and they are winning. And the recent Labour government were no better. They both have eviscerated hard won protections for working people and collective bargaining; introduced draconian legislation affecting civil liberties, divided the country into so-called strivers and scivers reducing those they consider to be liabilities to poverty, created xenophobic and racist ferment and making bigotry respectable, stealing the commons and handing it over to their chums in business and finance …..and then as the culmination of their appalling behaviour, making the biggest political mistake since Munich.
Nothing short of a peoples’ revolution will answer, but it won’t happen – they have the money and the weaponry and the people are supine.