This article, or something very like it, was in the Scottish Sunday Herald last weekend:
When I was giving evidence to the Finance and Constitution Committee at Holyrood earlier this year I said that I had never come across a country more interested in national income accounting than Scotland. The debate on GERS - the decidedly oddly named Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland statement - proves this. The latest version was published this week.
My argument on GERS is that the data it provides is what I have technically described as ‘crap', which, as I also explained to the parliament, is a term that I use when teaching on economic data quality to students to describe ‘completely rubbish approximations'. It's my contention that this is what Scotland has had to deal with for many years. This needs to be explained.
GERS has two sides to it, as its name implies. On income until 2016 twenty-five of the twenty six figures that made up the data were estimated. I am pleased to say that this ratio has improved slightly this year because better, Scottish sourced, data is now available on some locally devolved taxes. However, let's not get too carried away: they make up a quite small part of total income, and even the team preparing GERS are candid enough to admit they cannot state with any confidence the degree of accuracy to which over a third of the income is stated. This includes some pretty significant figure, like corporation tax income, whilst oil estimates, which have been revised this year, still look open to question as well. The reality is that not nearly enough tax data is collected in Scotland as yet to be confident about many of the figures in GERS. I actually go further in my criticism than that though: I have suggested that this failure to collect data is deliberate. Politicians in Westminster are likely, in my opinion, to want the wriggle room that this creates for them.
Many argue that the expenditure figures in GERS are more reliable than the income data because a significant part of that spend is devolved to Scottish government control. This, of course, is true. But that's not the whole story there either. The parameters in which the spending arises are set in London in many cases, and they too provide the money, setting out what Scotland can pretty much do as a result.
And then in very many parts of GERS Scotland is simply attributed with a part of total UK spending. In many cases, however, such as defence, foreign affairs, and quite possibly many other policy areas where this attribution arises, Scottish public pinion clearly indicates that if it had the chance Scotland would make very different spending decisions to those for which it is currently charged. GERS, however, does not allow for that: as the Fraser of Allender Institute have acknowledged, GERS assumes Scotland is a mini-part of the U.K. and no compensation for its higher levels of spending in some areas is reflected in other costs apportioned from the rest of the U.K., meaning that the supposed Scottish deficit may be seriously overstated as a result. It is also possible that the tax revenue generated by the spend outside Scotland deemed in GERS to be for Scottish benefit should also be, but is not, credited to the GERS revenue account. If that's the case then there is a serious accounting flaw in the whole GERS process that undermines all the data it supplies.
What is the net consequence of all this? It's that in my opinion three things. The first is that a lot of time and effort is now spent discussing a report that's full of cobbled together data, however will meaning the statisticians who prepare it might be. Second, that statement suggests, on pretty unsound economic and accounting foundations, that Scotland remains dependent on the UK when that might not be true and when Scotland is, according to regional trade data, the only part of the U.K. that is currently running a trade surplus with the rest of the world. But perhaps most important of all, the GERS data leaves the Scottish Parliament completely in the dark in the real impact of the decisions they have taken and have to take.
My suggestion is that this is deliberate. Scotland has been given want look like devolved powers but has little relevant, reliable or usable data on which to decide what to do with them. That's a recipe for hit and miss government and if in occasion that's what Scotland has has got that's firstly what Westminster wants and, second, Holyrood is not to blame.
But what really surprises me is that we do not hear Scottish ministers making a fuss about this. Nor do I see them queuing up to demand the better quality data Scotland could and should have on which to make decisions if only the political will to create it existed. That is a mistake by all Scottish politicians that they alone can correct.
But what they can't do is put GERS right. That's because it hardly recognises Scotland's right to decide on almost any issue of consequence. As a result what is really needed now is a whole new system of national accounting for Scotland, whether devolved or independent, that is in charge of its own decision-making. Discussing GERS in detail is, then, a waste of time because it's not designed to be meaningful, and isn't, in my opinion. And that's the issue to be addressed.
PS: I am giving evidence in Holyrood again on 19 September
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I think it has got to the stage, an outside body, from abroad, to calculate the finance of Scotland, which is independent and objective, and whose numbers will be accepted without question.
Until the fundamental problem of poor/no data being collected in Scotland is addressed it’s pointless getting anyone to calculate it.
The Scottish government could solve that problem by paying for a system to collect that data and as of today ten years in aren’t proposing to do so. Odd that a possible resolution and it’s never occurred to them.
I will be suggesting it
No one has ever answered the question “if Scotland is such a basket case, why is London so reluctant to let us go?” I think you are going towards answering. We need to show Scots how much London benefits from Scotland.
Hear! Hear! It IS deliberate. You just have to look at McCrone over oil, put on the secret list and UK govt used to collect country specific data for Scotland, it stopped pretty much coincidental with the SNP achieving a permanent presence at Westminster and thus able to ask searching questions as Alex Salmond did over McCrone.
If there is no information, no data then no inconvenient questions can be asked, in the House, by the Scottish government, by the Scottish people and lastly and very unlikely the Scottish Press.
Can you imagine the debate we could have had in the last indyref if we had actual hard figures? We were called fantasists because we couldn’t prove the economic case. That failure was deliberate on the UK’s behalf. It will not be fixed this side of Independence.
I expect it will take about five years and company execs in Barlinnie on tax charges and international companies threatened with a withdrawal of license to trade if they don’t play ball to get a true figure.
Last time i just kept hammering the positive balance of payments issue. If we are earning more than we are spending as a country then we are quids in AND we will have a decent currency. You want to buy whisky Mr Foreign Importer? Payment in Scotpounds please.