Carney’s message: don’t hope too much

Posted on August 4 2017

Mark Carney is hedging his bets. Interest rates remain on hold. But the threat is that they might rise.

On the other hand he says Brexit is a threat. And he adds that the risk of downturn is real.

Despite this he argues that banks are robust. At the same time he warns of deregulation.

So where is the real opinion? Or is this fence-sitting his real view?

I very much doubt prevarication is his style. But he knows he's sitting on an economy on the brink of disaster where seemingly every political move makes things worse at present and where the chance of the fiscal stimulus the economy needs is as remote as making Christmas 2019 with 75 trade deals in place. In the circumstances all he's got left to him is the prayer that he won't be the one to tip the whole thing over. So prevaricate he will. That might save his skin. But it also tells us not to hope too much for anything.

But maybe that's the real message he's imparting anyway.

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5 Responses

  1. Sean Danaher says:
    August 4 2017 at 10:07 am

    I think it is difficult for him. I fear many of the Brexit politicians suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect and simply wont listen to reason:

    The Dunning-Kruger effect named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, occurs where people fail to adequately assess their level of competence – or specifically, their incompetence – at a task and thus consider themselves much more competent than everyone else. This lack of awareness is attributed to their lower level of competence robbing them of the ability to critically analyse their performance, leading to a significant overestimation of themselves.

    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

    • Robin Stafford says:
      August 5 2017 at 1:25 pm

      Sounds to me like the old 2×2 conscious vs competence matrix, in which the most dangerous combination is unconscious incompetence, leading to arrogance and complacency. Seems to be a lot of it about.
      Those who are consciously competent know the limits to their competence and are always open to learning. All too few of them…

  2. Robert Meredith says:
    August 4 2017 at 10:38 am

    Well worth his £879k a year….

    http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248785/mark-carney-pay-bank-of-england

    I think for that amount of money I could do some quality fence sitting!

  3. Pilgrim Slight Return says:
    August 6 2017 at 10:01 pm

    I’m coming to the end of Professor Michael Hudson’s ‘Killing the Host’ and he identifies the problem that we see in today’s statesmen and other key posts of Government that could actually do something to end the economic malaise (do something for the people rather than just the 1%) as ‘learned incapacity’.

    The whole concept is designed to (1) retard any alternatives to TINA, (2) make the State look incompetent, out of touch and useless (undermine the notion of democracy) and (3) ensure that 1% continues to benefit from increases in debt (money production by banks) and increased privatisation of the commons).

    For some time I thought that this was just stupidity but since 2008 (the big crash which should have been an epiphany really) and the way in which the current mode of unbridled capitalism has marched on regardless now tells me that there is something more deliberate going on.

    BTW – I have just returned from holiday and must compliment you on the new look blog Richard – it’s really dynamic. Congratulations.