The Brexit truth that needs to be spoken was stated on the World at One yesterday by former Tory MP Matthew Parris, who said:
The right of the Conservative party — the hardline Brexiteers — certainly want to keep her in place, because they have her as a sort of captive in Downing Street and they don't know who they will get otherwise.
Brexit is dying, Brexit is in terrible trouble — and with every month that passes, the difficulties become clearer, and the Remain side of the argument becomes stronger.
The last thing Brexiteers want is a new leader of the Conservative party and a fresh approach to these negotiations, that would be very far from Mrs May's Lancaster House speech.
For once I had to agree with him. I think Brexit is dying precisely because it is in terrible trouble. But I stress it is not the logistical nightmare of the issue that is killing it, however hard that issue might be. It is the consequences of the attempt to Brexit that are causing the problems.
People are realising we live in a world where integration is essential, and where mutual safety on vast numbers of issues demands it.
And they are realising that being out of the EU imposes very real costs that they will bear.
What is more, they now can't see what the proposed benefits of those additional costs are.
In the meantime few like living in a country where one of the biggest changes in our modern history is being managed by a government that so very obviously does not have the authority to deliver it.
Brexit is now a total shambles, and it can only get worse. Parris was right to say so. And sometime someone is going to have to say it's time to stop it. And that, I suspect, is the reason why May will have to go, sooner than she wishes.
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thats going to upset all the people who voted to leave.
I agree
But I also think many are now seeing how disastrous leave will be
It’s already showing in their pockets
The polls are increasingly showing a huge swing to remain. Yes, the hardline brexiters, the xenophobic and reprobate,element among the leavers, will be angry and disaffected if it doesn’t go ahead. But I think most people would like an end to the calamity that is brexit.
Sorry… I said huge swing. I meant to say substantial. Huge is just me indulging wishful thinking!
I wouldn’t be too hard on yourself. I’ve spent over a year being told by a lot of loudmouths that 52% is the ‘vast’ majority.
I dont trust the polls they dont seem to get things right.
i have never been asked who to vote for so i cant see how they can get things right.
I am sure that most people have ever been asked
This does not stop small samples having been quite accurate over time, if not of late
Dear Richard,
A few questions if I may, along two slightly different,if related, lines.
First, if May is to go, who is going to push her? The Tory party knows that to do so would push the party further into crisis, and it doesn’t look like, for the moment, any of her major rivals have the confidence to play Brutus. Also, who would replace her? David Davis, the front-runner (for what that is worth) is very similar in outlook to May. It seems unlikely that in the event of a leadership contest a leader that advocated slowing or stopping Brexit would be acceptable to the party.
On Brexit, it is difficult to so how in practice it can be stopped. Apart from Jo Maugham, almost no-one thinks that A50 can be revoked. At the very least, it would require the EU27 to support such a move, and what would be their price for doing so? Loss of rebate? Agreement to join the Euro at some later date? How would that be sold to the public, given that public opinion on the Leave/Remain question has not shifted significantly since the referendum. And there is no support for such a move in Brussels. Who in the Tory party, which barring a political earthquake is the ruling party for the next five years, has the will and the capacity to ‘stop’ Brexit?
I just don’t see a path whereby Brexit can be stopped. For better or for worse, the clock is ticking. Of course this is completely different to the argument over what sort of Brexit we enact, which is still very much open.
I suspect Brexit will not be stopped but a Norway style deal will be agreed, with a long transition during which a return will be negotiated
The EU does not want us to go
We will not want hard Brexit: it’s already too obvious how bad it will be
And what will happen to May? She will go: events will force it. And it is likely either a general election or a national government will follow
I think a national government is possible. That will worry me: it will deliver many policies I do not like. But I think it increasingly likely.
agree.
I was 100% for remain. I live in Manila. If the UK thinks it can go it alone it is in a total dream world. A “Norway” solution is far from ideal. at least it is a holding position for the future. How is the EU going to evolve etc.
As for deals outside. I looked in detail at a proposed deal with South Korea that was analyzed
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-southkorea-fta-idUKKCN0ZC01X
The LSE article had its doubts:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
Why would the major car companies invest or even stay in the UK if they faced tariffs and other difficulties.
The world is very joined up now.
How have other European countries managed their immigration? I never see that reported.
Was the game all along for a super off sea tax heaven plus property holdings for the super rich and hang all the rest? I wonder? Yes, I pick up from programmes like Question Time that attitudes still seem entrenched. When will the scales fall from their eyes?
China and India will happily get their own back by asset stripping what is left of the British Empire.
May be reality is breaking out back there. And Jeremy Corbyn needs to get real about this to.
Well, as Simon says below, Lord Kerr is with Jolyon – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39291512 – “You can change your mind while the process is going on … They might try to extract a political price … but legally they couldn’t insist that you leave.”
I think it would be correct to say that Article 50 leaves it unclear whether a notification is irrevocable or not, so there could well be litigation of the UK sought to withdraw its notification unilaterally.
But I think it is obviously correct the EU27 could decide as a political matter to allow the UK’s notification to be withdrawn, and I suspect the other member states would willingly and enthusiastically accept the UK’s decision to remain after all. (David Allen Green has said something similar in an FT blog, and there is plenty of discussion along those lines in other places.)
Prediction: if we leave and then return, the readmission terms will be much less favourable than the terms we enjoy now.
On the positive side, BoJo’s pathetic pantomime performance as Foreign Secretary underlines how inadequate he would be as Prime Minister. For all the faults of Mrs May, we dodged a bullet there.
Your prediction is sound
But the realpolitik is A50 is cancellable and the readmission terms won’t be as good as now but not as harsh as they might be
Someone else who’s dodged a bullet is Cameron. We should be asking him, forcefully and repeatedly, for his advice on this matter. After all, he who got us into this. It’s not right at all he should be allowed to simply wash his hands of the matter and sashay off to a worry-free and lucrative future.
Parliament voted on having the vote not DC by himself.
The whole thing is self inflicted. The EU have been predictable, open, methodical, consistent and professional. The consistency is such in fact that its position is almost exactly what many of us predicted when the Brexit referendum was called. Any change has largely been filling in the dots.
The UK position has been erratic, secretive, inconsistent, amateurish and fantastical.
I was appalled on the night of the 2015 GE; I thought a Tory majority would be a disaster but never predicted how shambolic it would be.
I agree with all that
This ridiculous state of affairs started because it was an ill conceived plan in the first place to pacify the right wing conservatives who just want to line their pockets. We all ridiculed Brussels for years and if the government had gone through the motions of telling us what our options were rather than playing the hysterical immigration card and being told blatant lies we might have a more unified approach. As it is, it is painful to watch the mismanagement of this so called ‘easy’ process and at the diminishment of our great nation on the world wide political platform. Better to be part of a bigger more unified ideology than be a small inconsequential powerless island which plays into Putin’s plans (separate the UK from the EU and disband NATO). The European Union’s official response to triggering Brexit states that Article 50 can be reversed, meaning the UK could, in theory, change its mind at some point in the two-year negotiation process. A leaked European Parliament resolution says that the UK will be able to revoke Article 50 before it expires. The resolution states that the UK will be able to revoke its Article 50 notification but this process must be “subject to conditions set by all EU27 so they cannot be used as a procedural device or abused in an attempt to improve the actual terms of the United Kingdom’s membership.” However, the resolution makes clear that Britain cannot use the revocability of Article 50 as a means of improving the Brexit package it agrees with EU or for any other tactical purpose. So, May needs to go, some new blood in the interim (NOT David Davies or Boris or anyone else who pushes the Remain agenda) and we need to get on with it.
Given the way our politics seems to work these days, when The Remainers finally win to stay will be just before the Euro collapses to be replaced by the rupee and Poland rejoins The Russian Empire.
It will be a brave poltico who attempts to cancel Brexit (I’d be very happy to see it cancelled btw). I guess the question is – who would try & what would the reaction be? Doubtless Ree-smog would plumily foam at the mouth – ditto assorted Tory MPs – it might also give a fresh lease of life to Far-rage/UKIP and other assorted rabble rousers/harlots.
I have the sense that the country has been without any sort of government (that is one that knows where it would like to go) for more than 1 year & there is no prospect of one with Mrs May still sitting in No 10. A while back Richard, you noted that the Tories are only interested in power & retaining it – the current situation – a non-government of talentless individuals – with no ideas, is reflective of this.
I think a new Tory led national government will now emerge to negotiate a soft Brexit
And if it dies?
Will we have a welcoming and magnanimous EU, ready to have us back on board and to listen attentively to the issues that led to the leave vote?
Just as, if not much more, likely would be an emboldened ‘centre’ – with the tiller now more firmly strapped in the direction of travel of the last 40 years.
Be careful what you wish for.
Of course there will be fights to come
And I suspect we will lose our rebate
But better fight within Europe than fight Europe
That has much worse precedents
The tiller has been well guided and influenced by British diploants and beurocrats these past 40 yewars !!
SIlly to have climbed into the lifeboat believing that a sole hand on such a small boat was a better solution 🙁
Can’t really argue with the ‘May has to go’ thesis (she is just playing for time to me). For me the whole Tory party has to go.
But who will replace her? An even more dangerously dogmatic personality? The Tory party is full of them. That is what worries me Richard.
Remaining is the only reasonable option. But a serious renegotiation of the treaties, to remove all the neoliberal nonsense, and to allow governments to pursue reasonable economic policies and options, such as the Labour manifesto is an absolute must. For that, I would willingly sacrifice the Callaghan/Hattersley rebate that Maggie activated.
Getting Draghi out of the ECB should be a priority too. It’s high time they stopped their appalling treatment of Greece.
What would prompt the EU to entertain amending/removing the ordo/neo liberal ideology embedded within the maastrict, lisbon and other treaties?
The electorate
Recession
I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me one single specific benefit to be gained from Brexit,
Bojo lectured us, in his longwinded and rambling manner, about the potential for increasing exports of boomerangs to Australia, frilly knickers to France and the untapped potentials of the British jam and cake industry,
it sounded to me more like claims for the wisdom of sending more coals to Newcastle or selling refridgerators to Eskimos,
I voted Remain because, although not deliriously infatuated with the EU, I thought that over the years Britain had wrangled a series of concessions that made the relationship pretty tolerable,
we’ve retained our currency and not had to adopt the Euro, yet the City of London has continued to be a major clearing hub for Euro transactions,
we have the considerable rebate that was negotiated in the Thatcher era, arguably to mollify the sceptics of the time,
we aren’t in the Schengen zone and actually have physical national borders by virtue of being an island,
over 40 years we have negotiated and harmonised standards, customs rules and laws to achieve the easiest possible free movement of goods, services, finance and labour within the community whilst forming a large trading bloc with a formidable bulk purchasing power capable of forming group trading arrangements with any other large trading bloc on the planet,
to give up on an arrangement like this you would have to be offering something pretty significant as an alternative,
so what does Brexit offer, I’m damned if I can discern anything except uncertainty, vast expenditure of bureaucratic effort, instability and the looming prospect of an ultra neo-liberal, unregulated, low wage, fully privatised, tax haven state shackled to our only remaining ‘friend’ America,
this week a Tory MP used an arcane figure of speech that contained an offensive word,
I looked up this figure of speech to ascertain the origin of it,
if you were a 19th century American slave hunter searching someones property for an escaped slave to return to his/her master for a bounty you would seach their woodpile as a likely hiding place,
it was a tactless and insensitive use of language,
but it did bring me back to the thought of ‘what is it that the Brexiteers have hiding under their Brexit woodpile that they don’t want us to discover?’
flim flam about boomerangs, frilly knickers and jam lacks credibility and is a diversion,
I’m not enthused about a resurgence of the English pomposity towards literally anyone who simply isn’t British enough,
if animosity to levels of immigration were so problematic why in 7 years has no effort been made to accurately record or regulate immigration using existing mechanisms,
has immigration been allowed to continue unabated and used as a political lever?
I don’t like the woodpile analogy, I would prefer to take one from Cold Comfort Farm,
I think the Brexiteers have ‘something nasty in the woodshed’ and we should shine a light on it,
I don’t think they’re harbouring a vulnerable fugitive that they are trying to set free,
I suspect they are cultivating a monster in their woodshed that they intend to release upon us,
if Brexit is the new Arthurian quest I can only see it as tinged heavily with Pythonesque farce,
to quote from the historical epic ‘Monty Python and the Holy Grail’
BEDEMIR: And that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana-shaped.
ARTHUR: This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedemir. Explain again how
sheeps’ bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.
BEDEMIR: Oh, certainly, sir.
LAUNCELOT: Look, my liege!
ARTHUR: Camelot!
GALAHAD: Camelot!
LAUNCELOT: Camelot!
PATSY: It’s only a model.
ARTHUR: Shhh! Knights, I bid you welcome to your new home. Let us
ride… to Camelot.
and after many lengthy and fruitless negotiations….
ARTHUR: Well, on second thought, let’s not go to Camelot — it is
a silly place.
P.S. apologies for the long post, I will abstain for a week or so as penance,
Here’s a benefit.
“There is no greater example in the whole of the treaty why the EU has become a creditor’s protection club. It supports private creditors who then extract money from sovereign states for nothing in return. For example, without this Article [Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty] the Greek government could have popped down to the Hellenic Central Bank in Athens, ran a simple overdraft and none of the disaster unfolding in Greece would ever have happened.”
https://medium.com/modern-money-matters/the-other-240m-per-week-contribution-due-to-the-eu-c54e4eb0a763
erm… but we use sterling so although Greece is effected in this manner we aren’t,
Great post! We rarely take time to consider the advantages we already have.
I think that there must be another electoral consultation – GE or Referendum, where Remain is an option.
When there is, part of the deal must be that the EU will be much more transparent, much more visibly accountable. I know that if you look hard enough, you can find out how decisions are arrived at, who is responsible and how to properly influence them, but it doesn’t look like that to the average British voter.
Voters in every country must be able to *see* who actually takes decisions, who is responsible, and how to influence them. People need absolutely clear accountability from the EU.
It seems to me that a great amount of the perceived lack of transparency is a product of both our politicians and media failing to transmit information regarding the EU in any kind of of open and objective way. The press here are remarkably national in their focus and politicians have used the EU as a scapegoat rather than trying to clearly communicate both its plusses and failings.
my feelings exactly,
Britains ignorance of the EU is entirely down to ignoring everything that happens there,
brings to mind “Fog in Channel, Continent Cut Off”
Three points in response to Adam:
– On A50: politics will trump the law; if the EU27 say it can be revoked, it will be. Most of the EU still want us back. In any case there is quite a body of legal opinion that thinks it can be revoked, including the opinion of the man who drafted A50.
– I doubt we would be forced to join the Euro as the price of cancelling A50 before we leave. Most serious European politicians now regard the Euro as a mistake. They will persist with it, of course, but I doubt they will force other countries to join it.
– Public opinion: see the New European of the week before last for a graph suggesting that public opinion has indeed shifted. If a referendum were to be held today, Remain would win by 54:46. That slow rebalancing in favour of Remain can only accelerate over the coming months as the economy worsens and the talks run into severe problems.
Conclusion? Time is on our side and I believe we will stay in the EU. There, I’ve said it! (The more people say it, with increasing confidence, the more likely it is to come true)
While it is true the downside of Brexit was concealed, the smallest of research would have enlightened any inquirer as to the negatives. It is more than clear that Brexit is a poisoned chalice no one wants to embrace, so we are lumbered with all the inadequacies of May and, hopefully, are spared the buffoonry and incompetence of Boris. We can only hope that the implementation of Article 50 is successfully challenged in court as illegal. Prices have already risen, not inconsiderably, and this will be the mere tip of a very deep iceberg. Our head is well and truly in the noose and we will blindly hang ourselves if we proceed. I thought the Government was supposed to operate for the good of the people and the good of the country.
buffoonery. The most basic research…
Have people noticed how much the products we buy in store are shrinking? I bought a jar of mint sauce this week that had shrunk by about 30% since the last one I bought. Everything is getting smaller but remaining the same price.
That started before Bexit, the raw costs will still go up regardless. Maybe make your own mint sauce.
I do worry that the price to pay for re-entry would be to accept the euro as our currency. Look what it’s done for Greece. Not that our own economy is doing much better.
Tories are economic vandals who thrive on chaos and destruction, and the sooner we can get rid of them the better.
I think that incredibly unlikely
I doubt Germany wants the UK in the eurozone…
Imagine the City of London in the Eurozone… the horror! The horror! 🙂 I think they’d declare independence if that loomed.
Your answer reminded me of this little gem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE
Remaining is the only reasonable option. But a serious renegotiation of the treaties, to remove all the neoliberal nonsense, and to allow governments to pursue reasonable economic policies and options, such as the Labour manifesto is an abssilute must.
“But a serious renegotiation of the treaties, to remove all the neoliberal nonsense, and to allow governments to pursue reasonable economic policies and options, such as the Labour manifesto is an abssilute must.”
But how is that ever going to actually happen?
This was in the Independent today, and makes for unhappy reading:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lexit-brexit-why-i-voted-leave-left-wing-progressive-eu-parliament-regressive-conservative-a7836746.html
“Two out of every three parliaments in the European Union are classed as ‘conservative’ — there is no way to reform a movement that is dominated by right-wingers”
Yes, it’s a lightweight article, and a pessimistic view, but from what direction, and by what *actual mechanism*, will the 27 nations abandon those neo-liberal EU treaties?
Because they do not work and people realise it
Britain has always been the most neo-liberal and economically right wing member of the EU,
with Britain leaving and the Washington consensus crumbling under Trumps reverse Midas touch I expect Europe will head back towards it’s social democratic alignment,
I think it entirely valid
Even with Macron in town
I agree that they certainly don’t work in the best interests of the majority of the EU population, but which ‘people’ realise it?
And again, I’ll repeat my question that I asked Carl above: From which direction, and by what mechanism will 27 countries abandon, or let’s say even re-negotiate, those treaties?
I’m genuinely interested; but I’m unaware of any campaign in the EU to do this, let alone any information as to how it would be likely to come about.
I’m all ears if you have that information?
They have said it is possible (that is, the main negotiators have) but have implied it gets harder as time goes on, and I am sure that is true
absolute
In time-honoured fashion the British government will muddle through 😉
All of this presupposes that Government will be proactive rather than reactive in the process of leaving the EU. Thus far Govt. has only been reactive with the excuse that it must follow the Referendum and ‘will of the people’ with the motivation of remaining in office at all costs. On that basis they have not had to justify leaving the EU with any rational or objective assessment and of course they couldn’t if they had to. The British people of course have the right to change their mind and they will and Government (whatever Govt. may be in place) will act reactively to that as well; when the change of mind becomes fully apparent. We will stay in the EU.
Brexit is dying from the inside and from the outside. From the outside because the EU are taking exactly the approach they said they would, refusing to weaken the EU to keep the Brits happy or to make it attractive for any other EU member to leave. It is dying from the inside because we have a completely inadequate Brexit team and the way that we were shamelessly lied to (see: http://outsidethebubble.net/2017/06/21/democratic-lies/) and the real economic consequences of Leaving becoming ever more obvious.
How the juggernaut is stopped is another matter. Eventually public opinion will turn more overtly against what is going on particularly as people’s real standards of living decline under the shambolic Tory government. Parliament, given a free vote, can be relied upon to vote against Brexit if popular opinion is also against it. Another referendum, much more carefully worded, may be necessary.
Then what about Article 50? It’s not at all clear that it cannot simply be rescinded. Several very senior EU figures have hinted that it might be. However if we simply swallow our pride and say that we simply got it wrong and want to stay in the EU then what will happen? Yes, considerable loss of face but most of our face has already gone. We screwed up and we should admit it. But then what will the EU do?
If the UK says let’s scrub the whole business then the EU cannot do very much about it. They know that both they and us will be harmed significantly if they try to punish the UK. Losing the rebate? We simply continue to pay on the same basis has always.
We mustn’t think that there has to be a ver formal procedure for making this happen. It is true that most treaties don’t have a procedure for saying “sorry we were wrong, we’ve changed our mind”, but does there need to be any more than this? We should concentrate on the realities and not unnecessarily about the legalities.
Hear, hear! It’s our prerogative to change our minds.
Reading all the above, I’m struck again that the majority of those who write (almost all intelligently) are anti-brexit (as am I). But, 52% of those who voted on 23rd June 2016 chose to vote to leave the EU. Leaving aside the LEGALITIES (eg the absence of the normal criteria in a referendum) is it moral or immoral now to “change our mind”? OUGHT we to attempt to overturn what was, on 23rd June 2016, the “will of the people”, whether or not the people were misinformed?
Democracy always includes the right to change opinion
In fact, democracy is dependent upon the right to do so
Hear hear, a point that should be made repeatedly.
It was clear to me from the outset that the referendum was no more than a power grab by the right wing of the Tory party, desperate to inflict its malevolent shrink the state and exist as a tax haven agenda on all of us.
The mistake was that Remain allowed Leave to paint the result as a huge victory when it really wasn’t. They were helped in this by the BBC who jumped onto the agenda set by Farage, Murdoch, Sullivan and Dacre with bizarre glee.
As the horrendous consequences of ‘No Deal’ become ever clearer, and the various options of ‘Partial Deal’ appear to offer no benefit over full membership, it really is time to offer the public a choice between real rather than fantasy options.
As an aside I’ve just returned from Czechia and Austria. Both countries only serve to illustrate starkly how the hard right neoliberalism we’ve suffered since 1980 has hurt the fabric, industrial base and social cohesion of our own country.
Nicholas
referenda are too easily hijacked, there is a reason why they are banned in Germany as Hitler made such good use of them. For me the “will of the people” has chilling Nazi undertones.
This might be a legal technicality, but it seems the Article 50 Bill is flawed.
It doesn’t state that we have “decided” to leave the EU, which is apparently a legal requirement. It only states our “intention” to leave.
Whether our “decision” was left out by mistake or deliberately I don’t know but this article explains it and the ramifications:
https://waitingfortax.com/2017/06/14/on-whether-and-why-the-article-50-bill-is-flawed/
As a retired lifelong chartered logistician (MCILT) I can tell you that the impending logistical chaos will be far worse than outsiders imagine or even can imagine. Manufacturing industry outsources many vital components Europe wide (diagonal integration) on a “just in time” basis (very small buffer stores). Politicians are talking about the market for whole cars, the vast and intricate supply chain will surely be Broken into smithereens.
And there is no functioning customs system that can handle the data….
Nor can there be till it’s decided, by negotiation (which has not yet even begun), what that data might need to be and do. The system currently being designed is being designed in a dark room by blind men, by guesswork as much as anything, as no-one knows what any negotiated outcome might consist of nor when it might arrive. I say again, Brexit won’t happen. It can’t, there’s no mechanism for implementing it. If it had been seriously anticipated then from day one of anyone’s membership there would have had to be designed and maintained a coherent and available alternative to switch to, a huge and probably impossible task in itself. No, these days, when you’re in, you’re in, and the only way forward is to seek better conditions from within. It’s time people started facing up to this.