I am aware that there are those who say I have predicted seven of the last four downturns, but by and large that has only been because my forecasts have tended to be premature: I often spot these things sooner than they happen.
And I have been saying the UK has been heading for a downturn for a while, I agree, but there are two further signs today.
First, the Bank of England seriously considered increasing interest rates in May. If that happens the proverbial will be mingling with the fan faster than you can imagine: the UK is sitting on a mountain of private debt that many can barely afford.
And people are already under enormous pressure. Retail sales volumes fell by 1.2% in May as rising prices depressed consumer spending growth.
It's not just that austerity mixed with Brexit does not work: it is now an outright disaster.
Bring on the Green New Deal: it was designed for situations like these.