It is slightly scary that reports this morning suggest that Tony Blair and Richard Branson are both investing in efforts to overturn Brexit.
Let me be honest and say I increasingly think Brexit is unlikely to happen. I may be wrong, but there are three reasons for thinking this.
First, I simply cannot see the buffoons in charge of negotiating the UK's departure from the EU actually being capable of undertaking that task. The range of incompetence on view from those supposedly dedicated to this cause is staggering, from the Prime Minister (whose honeymoon is long over and whose impression of a headless chicken is becoming increasingly realistic) downwards.
Second, I think it may well be found that in the myriad of claims by Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland there are good legal reasons why they can demand a veto ion Brexit, and might exercise it. This is a union of four nations, after all.
Third, I suspect the European Court of Justice will become involved in this issue, because EU law on Article 50 is so unclear, and the result will be that Article 50 will be found to be revocable, in which case a vote of the Commons, another referendum or a general election will be required to actually leave, by which time it will be so apparent what a mess this whole scenario is that we will gratefully remain.
For these three reasons I am not wholly sure we need the help of Blair, Branson & Co right now. But I would doubt that in any event. Like it or not these two have to accept their particular blame for the mess we're in. Blair delivered vacuous politics and an appearance of prosperity based on rising personal debt. Branson delivered opaque global business based on tax haven ownership and a lack of accountability. They are faces of the problems we now have, not the solution.
Why do they think they have a chance then? That's because Labour has decided in its lack of wisdom not to undertake the task given to it in our constitution, which is the duty to oppose the government.
At most the British people voted, after being blatantly lied to, to suggest they might be happy to leave the EU. They never voted to leave the single market or the Customs Union. They did not vote on migration. Labour should be saying all three things and be saying it is upholding the referendum result by doing so, as it would be. Because they aren't, using the lame excuse that a non-binding referendum meant to advise the only sovereign decision making body we have (which is parliament) requires them to support virtually anything the government says, Labour are failing not just all those who voted against leaving, but all those who were lied to and now realise it and all those who voted to leave the EU and nothing else. In other words, they're choosing to fail a large majority.
And the danger of that is obvious. When Labour could be putting together a cross party coalition for common sense to prevail, with strong support available from the SNP, LibDems, Greens, Plaid and some MPs in Northern Ireland, it is instead leaving space for Blair to swagger back in. That really is staggering incompetence on the Labour leadership's part.
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There isn’t a constitution is there?
The job of the opposition is to scrutinise the government and hold them to account, not simply to oppose for the sake of opposing
Didn’t a majority of labour constituencies vote to leave? That does make it tricky to go hard against the government on Brexit doesn’t it?
The last thing anyone needs is Blair ‘helping’ them, it’s interventions like that that solidified the Leave vote – like when Obama intervened and told the British what he thought they should do
It’s Blair’s war crimes in the middle east that set in motion the chain of events causing the refugee crisis, which is a large factor in why the EU is in crisis. He needs to bow out of politics. Preferably by means of a war crimes prosecution.
Didn’t a majority of Labour constituencies vote to leave? That does make it tricky to go hard against the government on Brexit doesn’t it?
Were a majority of any party’s constituencies to favour the return of the death penalty in a referendum, the Government would rightly say that international commitments meant that such a policy was impossible, and the matter would drop. This is no different. Politicians have every right (and occasionally an absolute duty) to tell public opinion that it is wrong.
Well and appropriately said
It is well said — except that no government (one hopes) would be stupid enough to ask the public for advice in a referendum! If one ever did and the public (whipped on by a stream of inflammatory nonsense from the tabloids) voted to bring back hanging, it might be a bit more difficult for MPs to stand their moral ground — given that that seems to be something they find hard to do anyway.
Even if the very same politicians voted 6:1 to hold a referendum on the death penalty?
Yes
Thank you, I will be re-using that argument.
If Brexit sucks the Tories take the hit and lose the election in 2020.
The government have a majority of MPS voting for Remain, same with Labour. The problem is the Tory voters had a 58% to 42% majority for Brexit. SO how the hell are they going to resolve that? The government is trying to placate them whilst making it look like they cannot achieve Brexit.
“This is no different. Politicians have every right (and occasionally an absolute duty) to tell public opinion that it is wrong.”
Stopping Brexit is very wrong indeed.
I am not sure why stopping Brexit is very wrong indeed
Feel sorry for Keir Starmer and the other pro EU Labour MP’s.
They, and all the members and supporters who voted to remain, have basically been sold out by Corbyn who didnt want to remain in the EU from the outset.
The party should be properly performing its role to hold the Govt to account, but expecting that to happen under Corbyn and McDonnell is optimistic.
The leadership is incompetent. Worse, I actually believe it to be malign.
Labour never wanted to join the EA anyway. From the start they were opposed to it. Tony Benn effectively stated that in his 1975 letter about the referendum in that year: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/a-lesson-from-the-1975-referendum/
The only thing that changed was that the labour party became a neo-conservative “socialist” party under a certain Mr Blair.
Now we have him back again. Obviously he has not caused enough death and disaster, so has come back to increase the general level of misery existing.
And Branson…carpetbagger extraordinaire….now busy setting English general practitioners up for the “sale of the century”.
Two people who should never be associated with socialism….
Predictive text…for EA read EU
Some reaching out is needed to create that effective opposition platform.
If Blair were to commit himself to a post-neoliberal, centrist, tax justice agenda:
a. Could you support him ?
b. What do you think would be a workable policy / red-line basis for your support ?
Blair is too tainted to work with
Some careers should not be revived
Labour is in a dance of death with itself.
The PLP – who let us not forget love the ‘vacuous’ policies that Blair promoted and are really also neo-liberals – are up against Corbyn and his supporters who it seems genuinely want to move left and be more progressive (despite an out of his depth Shadow Chancellor) and want to (are being made to?) defend their foothold in the party.
This is remember the same party that supported one of the worst American administrations in recent living memory (Bush Jnr) and paved the way for greater privatisiation of our schools and the NHS. It is the party that promoted the ‘Third Way’ which as it turned out was just a nice flowery, poetic way of promoting neo-liberalism.
ALL of Labour are incompetent in my view including those who cheered on Benn Jnr during the Syria debate – not just the leadership.
Speaking for myself the whole party is beneath contempt. We speak of silos today. Well the Labour party is one big silo.
The Tories don’t care about anything but money. The Liberals care too much about personal freedom but not enough about personal responsibility to others. And Labour are too interested in each other to care about the likes of you and me.
And into the vacuum comes………………?
Richard: would you please explain why you think a) will lead necessarily to b) in para 5 of your statement.See below.
‘I suspect the European Court of Justice will become involved in this issue, because EU law on Article 50 is so unclear, and the result will be that
a) Article 50 will be found to be revocable, in which case
b) a vote of the Commons, another referendum or a general election will be required to actually leave’
Because if it is revocable I forsee see parliament demanding a chance to review the outcome of negotiations
It is already revocable in practice because the Council of Europe are willing to allow it, according to Donald Tusk. The only legal issue is whether we could force revocability against their wishes, however this is more or less irrelevant.
I have lived and worked in a number of countries but two at opposite extremes regarding referenda are the Federal Republic of Germany and the Republic of Ireland:
In Germany referenda at the federal level are not allowed under the constitution. This is because they were used so effectively by right wing populists in the 1930s to subvert democracy. It did not end well.
In Ireland there are referenda on a very regular basis. Indeed the term neverenda is often used. In terms of the EU any new treaty will require an amendment to the written constitution and by law the change can only be made by holding a referendum. The Irish experience is that no matter what the issue there is always 5-10% of the population which will use the referendum as an opportunity to give the government/establishment a vote of no confidence. The tactic is to hold the referendum; let people blow off steam by voting NO; go back to the EU and get concessions and hold the referendum again. This tactic works very well. Sufficient NO voters have let off steam and Ireland normally gets significant concessions. A guaranteed Irish EU commissioner swung it in one referendum cycle.
Of course the UK is different. There was no possibility that right wing populists could have a very seductive effect on certain strata of the UK public or that 5-10% of the population will vote against the government/establishment, just because they were completely hacked off. I do know the Irish government was sufficiently worried to offer help and advice to the UK government but were politely ignored. What could go wrong?
Well we are where we are. The Remain campaign was cringe-worthingly negative, naive and uninspiring. The Leave campaign was very effective. No need of a propaganda newspaper such as Der Sturmer; the Express, Mail and Sun were equally effective and loved the Boris Johnson Breitbart school of journalism; a cartoon version of the EU which bore no relationship to reality but was lapped up by a certain type of Englishman/woman. Together with the worst refugee crisis for a generation.
Roll forward 5 months. England seems to be going far more populist right wing. The Trump election in the US has my friends over there scared shitless. The rhetoric coming from the Brexiteers is increasingly at odds with reality and the EUs position is hardening dramatically.
Are May, Johnson, Fox and Davis deliberately lying when they say they can get access to the single market without free movement of people and a significant EU contribution? I think Fox and Davis are sufficiently blinkered (these are the two whom I assume Varoufakis meant when he hinted at low IQ). Boris is smart (in some ways) but a serial liar and opportunist. What is May up to?
I’m nor sure about Wales but Scotland and to a lesser extent NI voted strongly to stay in the EU. My experience or referenda is that anything less than a 10-15% margin should be taken with a grain of salt. The overall 52-48% result is too close to call,especially on an advisory referendum, but politicians in the UK are running about like headless chickens or zombies.
We live in a United Kingdom. Sadly however it is imbalanced. Prior to 1922 both Scotland and Ireland could make legitimate flames to being no 2 but there is little question that England has been no 1 since the Norman Conquest.
If I were May I would want to keep the UK in the EU; but I couldn’t be seen to do it overtly. Send the case to the Supreme Court with the likelihood that Scotland or NI can legitimately torpedo Brexit by having a vote in their respective parliaments in a cunning plan.
On Blair and Branson I could add something but the post is already getting too long; definitely time for a new generation to step up.
I think you have rumbled May
“Well we are where we are. The Remain campaign was cringe-worthingly negative, naive and uninspiring. The Leave campaign was very effective. No need of a propaganda newspaper such as Der Sturmer; the Express, Mail and Sun were equally effective and loved the Boris Johnson Breitbart school of journalism; a cartoon version of the EU which bore no relationship to reality but was lapped up by a certain type of Englishman/woman. Together with the worst refugee crisis for a generation”
Sean, take a bow. That is the best summary I’ve seen of this whole wretched saga. It should be compulsory reading for every single Leave voter, and every single politician in the UK.
The problem is it is impossible to actually improve things significantly in the Single Market.
John Harris in The Guardian today https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/23/eu-brexit-labour-leadership-article-50?CMP=share_btn_tw
“Meanwhile, as the gaping hole in Labour politics leaves room for the rumoured comeback of that ghoulish irrelevance Tony Blair, one gets the sense from the Labour leadership that Brexit — and hard Brexit at that — is exactly what they want. Strange that these people stand at the head of a movement said to be powered by the young”
I’ve reached exactly the same conclusion.
I resigned from the Labour party last week for the 2nd time in disgust. The first time was after the Iraq invasion. In fact I am pretty disgusted with the political class at the moment. We have a delusional and dysfunctional Tory Brexit team and a toothless opposition. I’ve lost all respect for John McDonnell – I had considerable hope a year ago.
I’m not remotely surprised Blair is re-entering the debate. The front benches on both sides seem to be full of light weigh pygmies. I think people are too hard on Blair. I absolutely condemned his decision to invade Iraq, but the real misjudgement here was to totally overestimate his influence on US policy. It is clear in hindsight that the US ignored him and treated the UK as a poodle. (I think any hope that things will be different under Trump will be misguided). On domestic policy it was not clear to me that neoliberalism was a disaster in 1997 and the economy was far better run in the Blair years then under Cameron/Osbourne. Of course the whole thing blew up in 2008 and it is clear that neoliberalism is a dead man walking.
As Richard says we absolutely need a working opposition. There is no Brexit plan because apart from very hard Brexit it is unworkable. It is becoming crystal clear that any goodwill towards the UK is rapidly fading in the EU and Ireland may be your only friend left. The French will certainly act like a woman scorned and even pragmatic Germany will put EU cohesion far above the relatively minor economic hit it will take.
The sad thing was all this was likely in June but the crass behaviour of the Brexit team has made this nearly inevitable. The Supreme Court, Scotland and Northern Ireland may be the only way out of this mess. I would also look to clarification from the European Court to see if Article 50 is reversible.
Why resign at this point? If the Corbyn internal reforms do take hold then it should be possible to vote against McDonnell’s policies. That may not be the leadership’s intention but it would be difficult for them to oppose democratically conducted opposition.