As if to reinforce my theme that May was a long time ago, this was a council by-election result in Sheffield last night:
Of course this cannot be extrapolated and there may have been factors surrounding particular candidates of which I am unaware (although that means most of the electorate may have been as well). But it was still an unexpected result. The electorate do have the capacity to surprise on occasion.
I should add Labour held on in other by-elections yesterday, as did UKIP in a Maidstone result.
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This is one ward over from Nick Clegg’s constituency. Could we be seeing the negative impact of the coalition wearing off a little?
No, it’s four or five wards over from Nick Clegg’s constituency. You have to cross Graves Park, Gleadless Valley, Birley and Beighton to get to Mosborough.
Should this be a surprise? Obviously it is difficult to draw much if any strong conclusions from a single council election where local factors are much more important than national. I read that the Lib Dem candidate is a former councillor who lives in the ward whilst Labour put a candidate who lives 20 miles away.
But should we be surprised that the labour vote fell sharply? What possible reason does your average floating voter have for voting for Labour currently? The party is a total shambles. The Lib Dems have cleverly made themselves the anti-Brexit party. Vote for us if you don’t agree with Brexit. I have no idea what the Labour position on Brexit is. The Lib Dems, unlike Labour, have a leader who is a strong media performer (when he gets on) and when given the opportunity is able to take the fight to the Tories much better than Labour.
Given Labour seemingly have no way of stopping the shambles, given the Brexit shambles will continue to dominate politics the Lib Dems look in a strong position to bounce back somewhat at the expense of Labour.
You may be right
But a year ago few could / would have predicted it
R
For what it’s I have written a little about it here https://landlordsinhell.wordpress.com/2016/09/09/the-mosborough-by-election-and-what-it-does-or-does-not-mean-for-labour/
Wow: that’s A* grade excuse making
Sorry you’re right, nothing to do with the Labour candidate not living in the ward, a lacklustre local campaign or well organised Lib Dem ground campaign. Owen Smith knocking Theresa May back on her heels and having a second referendum would have inspired people to vote Labour.
So now it’s A* cynicism?
I’m unclear on whether you are a party member and whether you helped in the election?
The beaten candidate is quite clear that Corbyn was a highly negative factor on the doorstep, and that would surely chime with polling that shows his support, even among Labour voters, at a very low ebb.
As I’ve pointed out this was not the only result where the labour vote went down last night.
No I did not help with the campaign because I have only just moved back to Mosborough a couple of weeks ago. The point I was trying to make is that local factors Richard alludes to in his original post are really quite strong and as hard as it is to believe not all the Labour party’s failings are because of JC. A contributing factor sure, but in this case it seems unlikely to be the most important factor. Before last night people thought UKIP would benefit from general disillusionment with the city council which shows just how surprising the Lib Dems win is to outside observers. As it happens anyone who lives in the area would be able to tell you they ran by far the best ground campaign.
The ability to run the best campaign is telling though, don’t you think?
One of the accusations against Corbyn is he can’t organise an event in a brewery
Yes, that is something we agree on Richard! I do ask questions of Momentum at the end of the post and where the new support is. If Clive Betts is to retain in seat in a future general election the local campaign will certainly have to be be better. Apologies for the ill-tempered reply above but my opinion (and that’s all it is of course I could be completely wrong) remains that people who are ignorant of the circumstances are reading far too much into this particular local council result. Some will be doing in good faith as I know you are and others are doing so wilfully in order to boost their pre-determined conclusions.
I shortened your blog for you. Now fits nicely in a tweet. ”If you ignore politics, everything it involves and everything that happens then Corbyn is great.”
A London University professor writes a blog about a by-election result in my hometown, the village that I am specifically from, alluding to the unexpected nature of the result. Elsewhere in the press and on twitter this is pounced upon as evidence that Corbyn is dooming Labour forever. I write a blog post that explains the campaign from my perspective as a local resident and why these factors are more important than outsiders think. Also in the blog post I ask questions of Momentum’s involvement (or lack of) with the local campaign and acknowledge the result as a worrying sign of the ground troop surge failing to materialize. Nowhere in the post do I say that WOW Corbyn is great I simply try to put the result in local context, this is then wilfully mis-characterised as a lover letter written by someone who is unqualified to have an opinion on the subject. Cheers.
Its’ the Corbyn effect. He held a rally in Sheffield a couple of weeks back……
Actually the Labour vote went down in a few other local elections in Barrow, Mansfield and Maidstone too.
Local elections can be decided by a number of factors but if this trend continues, the the prospects for Labour would appear to be bleak with the most unpopular party leader ever in post.
When active in Sheffield hallam the lib Dems fight a very dirty fight using smear tactics and leaflets with no originators details. So I am not surprised with this result in an adjacent area to Hallam.
If the Lib-Dems are dirty, UKIP are filthy.
A UKIP ‘councillor’ we involved in the consultation about new housing in an area for people who need to downsize because of the bedroom tax went and told the other residents that they were being build for immigrants!! Thanks!
It’s true!
I will admit a certain fondness for the ‘Begone’ speech to the Rump, and “You have no more Religion than my horse” rings all too true for unprincipled careerists on both sides of the House, faux-socialist and ‘whigservative’ alike.
Nevertheless, Cromwell’s warning to complacent politicians was followed by an object lesson in the futility of draconian ‘solutions’ to a democratic problem: his speech to the Rump is a lesson for all the wrong reasons.
Which I s why I said I did not agree with his solutions
I live in Sheffield.
This was a specifically anti-Corbyn candidate.
Seems Corbyn gets the blame whatever happens.
I’m open minded on this. But one thing concerns me. A comment I read stated that the candidates twitter feed was full of anti Corbyn hate. I always research these types of comments, and found that Julie Grocutts twitter page was deleted. Odd.
Locals have commented on the fact that she lived 20 miles away, and the Lib dem was a local – evidence shows that this is a factor – only one, but a factor.
Labour candidate was publicly anti-Corbyn, didn’t mention him on her leaflets and (most importantly I think) didn’t live in Mosborough – so this may show that the locals did not like her anti Corbyn stance.
There is a graph that shows that a massive surge in membership – Corbyn has seen an increase from 200,000 to around 600,000 precedes a win in general election.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoNGhzwWYAIDa1z.png
This could however, be impeded by a hostile PLP and media, which has certainly been the case. The Party did win 4 bi elections and 4 mayoralties inspite of that, however.
That graph does not show that an increase in party membership leads to a general election win in any way. The majority of the previous increase is clearly after Labour last came in to power, there are past wins that have no corresponding increase and there’s no evidence that it has happened for other parties. The new route to electing a leader largely through direct member voting combined with the performance of internet usage also make it incomparable.
Ultimately elections aren’t decided by the party membership but the majority of the electorate who aren’t members of any party. Their preferences get reflected through opinion polls and we all know how they show 2020 turning out.
http://labourlist.org/2016/09/angela-smith-the-message-from-mosborough-is-very-clear/
This MP’s take on events. This isn’t a unique perspective. Many MP’s and councillors have mentioned the negative effect Corbyn is having on the traditional Labour supporting base. This, along with polls showing him to be very unpopular among the general voting public, should be setting off alarm bells.
Some of Jeremy’s supporters do need to take a cool, rational look at the situation and accept that he is likely to be an electoral liability rather than an asset.
Steve
You have to understand that winning elections is not the aim
And that’s the problem
Richard