It would be very easy to think that Labour has all the political problems this summer, but that's simply not true. If you want an indication of the crisis - and possible party split facing Theresa May - just read an article by Bernard Jenkin in the FT this morning where he says::
Should Britain go for “hard” or “soft” Brexit? It is a question laced with unspoken assumptions – the most important being that the UK must have so-called “access” to the single market in exchange for an agreement that means we do not take back control over migration of EU citizens.
And, as he makes clear, neither option is acceptable to him or those who voted Leave: the only route for them is entirely out as soon as possible.
There can be no doubt that people like Liam Fox share this view and are at the Cabinet table.
The prospect of real division is very high here. And May now has more disaffected sacked Cameron ministers on her back benches than she has in her parliamentary majority. The idea that division is the preserve of the Opposition benches right now is seriously mistaken, however strong the Tory lust for power.
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I am quite sure that the current Tory government has no idea what it is doing. I’m not just saying that because May is a woman – Cameron left a huge mess behind him in the Tory back yard. If May thinks that by putting major Leave players in certain positions they will grow up and behave themselves then I think she has made a huge mistake. Theirs is power without responsibility.
Que more embrassment on the iternational stage when she realises that things are not working and she has to sack Leave orientated ministers.
Not ‘just’ because she is a woman?? So in part because she is a woman then? Even raising her gender in this context implies it has some relevance to her competence.
I think May knows exactly what she is doing, and most of the country (Leave and Remain alike) thinks so too – recent poll figures are just as much, if not more, about a Tory surge as about a Labour collapse.
There’s some rather interesting speculation on the thinking behind her actions by Paul Mainwood on Quora (are links allowed in comments here?). One could add to it that by putting her Three Brexiteers in nominal charge of Brexit, the plan is to let them get on with screwing up so that they will be entirely responsible for their own downfall, and the downfall of the Leave project – much as she did in the leadership contest. There’s a new Liam Fox scandal brewing already…
This comment permitted but I am not encouraging the debate
Indeed. And the Conservative Party has always been attentive to the needs of farmers and country landowners, who are now firmly in the ‘Regrexit’ camp and somwhat disgruntled by the discovery that their lost subsidies will not be replaced.
That’s a very powerful lobby, and confronting the false promises of the Leave campaign is going to be a painful exercise.
Hope springs eternal.
Happy August!
There is an ancient Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times”. Sadly the next few years will definitely be interesting times. The leave campaign peddled the “sex with the ex” myth also known as having your “cake and eat it”. There will be difficult choices to make. One lives in hope that the Tory party will be even less governable now with a predominantly pro EU back bench. Brexit is so fuzzily defined I have no idea what it means.
Resolving trading of goods with the EU outside the single market is doable but services (in particularly the “city”) would be far more complex. If the “city” were to shrink with a simultaneous expansion of manufacturing in the North then it would be welcome.
There is considerable anti UK sentiment in parts of the EU; this is an example from a Dutch journalist
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/24/eu-britain-must-suffer-for-brexit
and negotiations will be difficult. Interestingly there is surprisingly support for Northern Ireland and the EU sees the peace process there as a major success.
On another matter I heard a UKIP leader hopeful on the Today program today (can’t remember is name – I try to spend as little time as possible thinking about it) but I found it rather worrying; he sounded far more credible than Farage. The key strategy of his campaign
1) Target the 40 Labour seats in the North of England where UKIP did best in the last election
2) Concentrate on inequality and means to reduce it
3) set up 50 new Grammar Schools and provide free 3rd level education and apprenticeships
I’m sure there was more. In medical terms however there is a vast difference between diagnosis and cure and I’m afraid the side effects will vastly outweigh any benefit.
The difference for May as opposed to Corbyn/Labour is that May gets to call an election and to consolidate her position.
Ie. If Jenkins/Fox/out voters object to any agreement that she makes with the EU, then she puts it to the electorate to prove that she has the backing of the country and not them. (she may well do this anyway to consolidate her position over Labour)
No she doesn’t
Flexed term parliament
Indeed. However I guess she could just cynically repeal the law if it suited her.
So far she has been impressive IMO, especially the inspired Johnson appointment. It will either make him (if he can be bothered to throw off his sloth) or break him. But I’m curious about the retention of Hunt. Does she have a plan for health?
I think if she wanted to call an election in order to approve the Brexit terms opposition to calling such an election would be very difficult. The fixed term parliament act would be relatively easy to repeal at one and the same time. I can see few fighting to save a measure that was so obviously designed for coalition.
If May agrees a deal with the EU on Brexit, which she says she wants to present to the country, it’s hard to see that labour would be able to not agree to an election in those circumstances.
But also hard to see at the moment her getting a deal before the term is up…..
On which her own party could agree
George Monbiot’s recent essay, also published in The Guardian, does not speak highly of Mr. Liam Fox. The link to the article is here: http://www.monbiot.com/2016/07/28/so-much-for-sovereignty/