The message from the UK this morning is clear and unambiguous. It is that we're having a full blown crisis and everyone will just have to wait until we work out what to do next.
Boris is in no hurry to leave the EU, extraordinarily.
George Osbrone does not think he needs an emergency budget, after all.
Cameron is already polishing his memoirs.
Labour is in internal meltdown.
And the Germans can say what they like (and are) but no one can force the UK to invoke Article 50, despite which no one will be able to resist talking, because that's just the way people are.
And confusing as it may seem this may all be for the best. This is a confusing time. More than that it is epoch making. Globalisation has been halted. Neoliberalism's finest hour may be behind it. A stark left / right choice is now apparent. And remarkably few people have thought about any of that, least (perhaps most) of all those who lead the Brexit campaign and who have now pretty much denied almost every word they said during it.
I am not a natural prevaricator. I find it hard not to make decisions, or have a position. But for once I happen to think that this collective message of inaction, unco-ordinated and inadvertent as it is, happens to be right.
We need time to assess how markets will react. Everyone expects it to remain adversely, but we need to know to what degree that may be true.
There does need to be time to assess the political fall out.
New visions need to be polished (I am working on that).
And the EU needs time to work out what this means for them because if anyone says it will carry on unchanged as a result of this they are just wrong: every country must be re-appraising its own risks at this moment and seeking to develop a strategy to deal with them. What that means is that many of the issues that may need to be on the table with the UK will in practice need to be on the EU table as a whole. To take but one example, migration is not just a UK problem and how to deal with it is an issue that many countries will want to address, not least by potentially adopting any solution offered to the UK.
Even Nicola Surgeon needs time: she cannot be sure whether Scotland is ready for independence as yet.
To summarise, this is a moment for standing back, breathing deeply and reflecting even more strongly. The world may well be setting out on a new course as a result of Brexit and it will be one where convergence has ceased to be the dominant theme. But if so we need to be sure how to make that work. Presuming that agreeing how VAT refunds will be managed with the EU is the issue of greatest importance looks in that situation to be a wrong indication of priorities.
We do not have forever on our side, whether in the UK government, UK politics or the EU as a whole. But to not do a little of that most difficult of things, which is thinking, would be a serious error right now.
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Clearly a good time for plenty of long walks with the dogs, preferably in the bright sunshine but that is looking as unlikely as a harmoniouos Labour party at the moment!
You are all too young to remember Bette Davies saying in the film, All about Eve.
“Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride”
I am…
I m not !!
It seems that the promised £350 million a week better of out of the EU from Brexit has vanished into thin air, not a penny more for the NHS apparently. Obsession with money is the neoliberal raison d’etre so the new situation has left Boris, Michael, Nigel et al totally at a loss about the way forward.
Richard, speaking of VAT, as it was a tax imposed in the UK as one of the conditions of its Common Market membership, what implications do you think there would there be, post Brexit, for its abolition, reduction, or replacement?
Perhaps it’s substitution with an LVT might be a vote winner for the left?
I will have to do a blog
But remember over 150 countries have a VAT
You can have GST, same as we do in Jersey. Exemptions for cleaning your swimming pool and marine diesel for your yacht, but food, books and children’s clothing are all taxed.
Good Morning Sir!
Before VAT, the UK had Purchase Tax.
Purchase Tax was a World War Two invention which taxed luxury goods. Purchase Tax evasion got Richard Branson into jail because of his false claims to be exporting LPs. They were in fact diverted out the Dock Exit at Dover. It’s in his biography. It appears he learned his lesson and has never been caught evading tax since.
Purchase Tax was a true acquisition tax whereas VAT is a transaction tax. VAT is a tax on goods and services [some traders used to claim that VAT is a tax on cheques!]. That’s the nasty bit about it. A low income family pay the same rate of VAT on their heating bills [a ‘service’] as the chairman of the utility company [maybe not the best example but it’ll do for now].
VAT fraud in the UK was emancipated by the Single Market in 1993. The UK tax authority was not prepared for the onslaught on its tax system that eventually became known as Missing Trader intra-Community [MTiC] fraud. MTiC flourished and I recall that in one period in 2003, the amount of VAT repaid to ‘traders’ was more than the amount collected. MTiC fraud distorted the UK’s trade statistics. The commodities that caused the distortion were computer processors [CPU] and mobile phones. Many mobile phone companies ‘traded’ products and reclaimed VAT so many times that they could have given the phones away. Companies were [are] established specifically for the perpetration of VAT fraud. MTiC is the Long Firm Fraud of the tax system. Some of the HM Customs & Excise prosecutions relating to MTiC are public domain and make interesting reading.
I expect VAT fraud to mutate again as a result of the confusion following the referendum. I suspect that our ‘Leadership’, despite having no post-referendum contingency, are prepared to allow their supporters to exploit the uncertainty.
VAT is one of the most regressive taxes, after Council Tax. But LVT must first be used to replace all the current property taxes: CT, Business Rates, Stamp Duty Land Tax, Section 106, Community Infrastructure Levy, in order to make the land/property market work more effectively. But as LVT beds in VAT is the next tax to reduce. I would prefer to see it replaced by a consumption tax – a tax on consumption of natural resources – in which case it would not apply to services directly.
‘Nicola Surgeon’ Typo or Freudian slip!!! Sorry, need a bit of humour this morning and your typos sometimes provide it. It made me smile anyway and given what is happening in Labour I need a smile.
Autocorrect typo on iPad…
If only there was an autocorrect on Friday morning
Emporer’s new clothes time? To use a Morrisey phrase , our politicians are revealing themselves as a ‘hatfull of hollow’!
The death of the political class?
The death of the party system?
The emergence of democracy?
The death of the suited-up shyster?
The death of the armpit farting that politics has become?
The death of arrogant bluster?
The death of the bog-roll press?
The death of dumbed-downess ?
The death of power?
The death of the strutting, creosoted, hollow men and women?
The rise of a collegiate spirit?
Perhpas not yet.
Perhpas we’ve got what the Germans call a ‘Waffenstillstand’ which happened at Compiegne in World War One.
Ooh, Waffenstillstand. Must use that.
In the good old days when I still thought we might pull off a Remain victory, I fantasised about the silver lining that could possibly be imagined from a Leave win. I comforted myself with the prospect of all the lies being uncovered, all the manipulation being exposed, and of Boris, Gove, and Nigel falling into a cesspit of their own making.
Despite all the talk of “the people have spoken”, and “we must all pull together” (Hilary Benn are you listening?), I’m still very angry at the deception on an industrial scale perpetrated by the OUT campaigners. I have seen some squirming (IDS) and some pseudo-CHurchillian posturing from Boris, and a huge amount of bluster all round, but the media have been far less critical than they should be. They simply bleat “What now?”
I really want Boris to take the helm, and put his money where his mouth is – and fail spectacularly. He deserves complete humiliation. Sorry – not feeling very generous this morning.
For my money, Diane Abbott has been magnificent in her response to the Brexit result, and in her defence of Corbyn. She, along with others will be part of a continuing Corbyn shadow cabinet, and I a more than happy with that, and despite Zoe Williams unfortunate backtracking this morning, I think Corbyn should keep going.
From the Guardian:
Shadow foreign secretary — Emily Thornberry.
Shadow health secretary — Diane Abbott.
Shadow education secretary — Pat Glass.
Shadow transport secretary — Andy McDonald.
Shadow defence secretary — Clive Lewis.
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury — Rebecca Long-Bailey.
Shadow international development secretary — Kate Osamor.
Shadow environment food and rural affairs secretary — Rachel Maskell.
Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs — Cat Smith.
Shadow Northern Ireland secretary Dave Anderson.
My reason for voting Leave (I abstained in the end) was ‘dialectical’ thinking that the hollow sham of the political class would be exposed quicker with remain this would have happened anyway but at the pace of ‘water torture.’
Let’s see these time serving lot exposed for what they are: hollow/vacuous/vapid/blatherers of banality.
Thank heavens there is a core of Corbyn supporters. What’s happened to Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) he should be there with Corbyn?
I found this on Hopkins position last year – he wanted to stay on the back benches.
http://www.lutontoday.co.uk/news/politics/kelvin-hopkins-meets-with-corbyn-team-but-opts-to-stay-on-back-benches-1-6957119
But I could only find a cached snapshot of his parliamentary website taken on 24th June, despite the Google search coming up with this.
http://www.kelvinhopkinsmp.com/
The website of Kelvin Hopkins MP Labour Member of Parliament for Luton North. Kelvin Hopkins Welcome to my website on Saturday 25 June 2016 at 17:00 PM …
Yes, where’s Kelvin? I had hoped to see him in the Shadow Cabinet now the referendum’s over. I was thinking of phoning him (he’s a member of our Labour Land Campaign) but don’t want to pry. Hope he’s OK. Someone suggested today that his health might not be too good.
Sir Alan ‘Bojo’ B’Stard’s sermon from the mount, penned during his introspective weekend hike up the Big Rock Candy Mountain and printed in the Torygraph seems a blueprint for an ultra neo-liberal, ultra libertine, make it up as you go vision of a City centric ultra right wing coup offered as ‘there is no alternative’ since boxing ourselves into a corner by voting to leave the EU.
Labour are re-enacting Life of Brian in an endless loop, the Peoples Front of Judea and the Judean Peoples Front can neither split nor merge, maybe they will spontaneously combust?
at this point holding another referendum would be more destructive than sitting back and seeing where the wheels set in motion go, agreeing to remain at this point would be seen as utter defeat and humiliation, an acquiescence to Brussels every whim,
I would like a move to the left and away from neo-liberalism but I fear a lurch to the right,
a progressive coalition would be lovely but it requires sentient adults to form one,
whatever happens I expect grumpy northern traditional Labour voters to be left out of any solution,
this entire blorius glunder is being staged and performed in the Metropolitan bubble, I await it’s bursting with glee!
Suggested viewing: Passport to Pimlico, The Mouse that Roared, Duck Soup,
Stock Tips: invest in popcorn,
Quote of the day: John Crace “Liberté, Egalité, Stupidité!”
Dear Mr Murphy,
Reading your December 2009 article entitled “What has Blair got to hide — because that’s the riddle at the heart of the conundrum” at URL:
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2009/12/01/what-has-blair-got-to-hide-because-thats-the-riddle-at-the-heart-of-the-conundrum/
In regard to your article (and of course the riddle), perhaps you may wish to navigate to WikiLeaks at URL:
https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/?q=&mfrom=alcb
and:
https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/?q=Windrush+Ventures&mfrom=&mto=&title=¬itle=&date_from=&date_to=&nofrom=¬o=&count=50&sort=0
and start reading…
Best regards,
Richard, in taking our time we must look back on this and wonder how all of us allowed this to happen. Not that Brexit won the vote but that a totally unplanned Brexit won the vote. 17 million people have just voted for an empty phrase about which they have been able to attach whatever ills and anger they wish. We are in a position where we say to Brussels we want to leave, they ask what leave looks like and we reply with ”we have no idea in reality’’.
I think the media have a lot of the blame for this. The entire media is guilty of stoking this ultimately ridiculous gladiatorial contest that was a slanging match of empty thrashes and no intellect or detail. That the BBC thought it right to host their main debate in Wembley Arena with a 6000 strong partisan crowd uninterested in rational thought and challenge is the best example of how awfully the media behaved in this whole debacle. If the BBC cannot get it even close to sensible and rational debate then what can we expect or demand from the rest of the media. The media saw this as a ratings or sales war. Probably because they all assumed Brexit would not win so they could just treat it as a chance to further their own position. Why did we have to go to blogs and YouTube videos to read or hear the real experts? Why were the true facts, details and most importantly the real complications of an actual Brexit shared on social media and not reported by the mass media?
Where we go now nobody knows. A narrow majority has voted for something that does not exist and never existed. There was never a single defined Brexit to vote for. Indeed the Brexit of Farage will differ wildly to the Brexit of Boris which will differ still to the Brexit of those in post-industrial towns around the country. Brexit must now attempt to be fleshed out and given some meaning only then can a rational decision be made as to whether it is better or worse than our current position in the EU and whether people actually want it. This process must be undertaken knowing Scotland voted massively against Brexit and now has every right to push for independence again. Knowing that the young voted massively against it as did London and many of the other big cities. What this means for the future is still unclear. I agree with you nobody will want to actually invoke article 50 as that will unleash the true turmoil. At the moment we have had the big tantrum and are now closing our eyes and counting to ten. What happens next we cannot know for certain but it is unlikely to be calm.
“uninterested in rational thought” is the key phrase and demonstrates the folly of having a referendum on this issue in the first place – the great mass of the UK population have neither the education nor the knowledge to take such a momentous decision.
David Cameron is guilty of a colossal misjudgement in promising a vote on EU membership. It is interesting that referendums are not allowed in Germany under German law – because Hitler had four … and we know where that led.
If they take long enough there will be a natural decline in Brexiteers via the Grim Reaper. I saw a figure of 75% bandied around for young people supporting Remain. Apart from the lucky few we really have made an uphill struggle for young folks.
Between house prices, rents and student loans most of them will devote over half their working lives just to meeting the demands of the rent seekers. That’s going to make for a very large number of very unhappy people….that’ll really be a crisis
How has the EU helped with the 40 years plus of rent seeking and marauding of the populace?
Has the EU helped keep housing prices low?
Did the EU make sure people weren’t sanctioned to death?
Did the EU help keep credit controls on banks to avoid destructive asset bubbles.
Did the EU campaign for full employment (not NAIRU).
Did the EU make it easier to nationalise failing privatised industries?
Did the EU make it easier to inject money directly into economies without using the secondary markets?
Did the EU help with the appallingly unjust Bedroom Tax?
The EU gives with one hand (maternity leave etc) and knees you in the bollocks at the same time (IMF ‘structural Adjustment’ and massive internal devaluation)
Ah, yes….I now see how spiffing the EU has been for the young.
Simon, I never claimed the EU was anything but neo liberal I was merely trying to look from a young persons perspective. The fact that there is such a difference in outlook between old and young is something we can expect to be used as a divide and conquer tactic.
Sorry Alastair , my misinterpretation.
has anyone wondered why ‘the young’ feel this waybecause it doesn’t seem to be based on any reality. I mean, do they know that 51% of Spain’s youth has been left without hope?
Without wanting to sound like a condescending old berk (OK I do) I think there is more than a little naivety in the youth vote that was probably had a somewhat starry-eyed view of what ‘globalisation’ means so another sector of the populace ill-educated.
On closer inspection, it turns out that although 75% OF the young voted for remain, the percentage of young people voting was LOWER that other age groups-so the 75% figure cannot be considered some sort of statement of ‘what youth wants.’ (See: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-political-awakening-young-people/).
Simon, my 2 cents, younger people, or at least those that show any level of interest, have grown up in the most media intensive environment ever. Round the clock information access and saturation level ‘right on’ messages. Nuance and subtlety isn’t exactly the norm, adversarial tribalism is. So many of the surface level aspects of the EU are seductive, and if it did what it says on the tin it would be a truly great thing.
For my mind the most glaring absence is that Brexiteers may have been right just for the wrong reasons. Brexit gives a chance to battle neo-liberalism on a more achievable scale. But it’s a slim chance and failure will be blamed on Brexit rather than the underlying issue.
I’m afraid that is 75% of young people who actually voted. The turnout for that age group was 35% if I remember it correctly. The rise of the proportion of the population voting was perfectly and linearly correlated with age.
exactly, Steve- I wonder how much of that 35% were the sons and daughters of the ‘liberal class.’
Richard, in taking our time we must look back on this and wonder how all of us allowed this to happen. Not that Brexit won the vote but that a totally unplanned Brexit won the vote. 17 million people have just voted for an empty phrase about which they have been able to attach whatever ills and anger they wish. We are in a position where we say to Brussels we want to leave, they ask what leave looks like and we reply with ”we have no idea in reality’’.
I think the media have a lot of the blame for this. The entire media is guilty of stoking this ultimately ridiculous gladiatorial contest that was a slanging match of empty thrashes and no intellect or detail. That the BBC thought it right to host their main debate in Wembley Arena with a 6000 strong partisan crowd uninterested in rational thought and challenge is the best example of how awfully the media behaved in this whole debacle. If the BBC cannot get it even close to sensible and rational debate then what can we expect or demand from the rest of the media. The media saw this as a ratings or sales war. Probably because they all assumed Brexit would not win so they could just treat it as a chance to further their own position. Why did we have to go to blogs and YouTube videos to read or hear the real experts? Why were the true facts, details and most importantly the real complications of an actual Brexit shared on social media and not reported by the mass media?
Where we go now nobody knows. A narrow majority has voted for something that does not exist and never existed. There was never a single defined Brexit to vote for. Indeed the Brexit of Farage will differ wildly to the Brexit of Boris which will differ still to the Brexit of those in post-industrial towns around the country. Brexit must now attempt to be fleshed out and given some meaning only then can a rational decision be made as to whether it is better or worse than our current position in the EU and whether people actually want it. This process must be undertaken knowing Scotland voted massively against Brexit and now has every right to push for independence again. Knowing that the young voted massively against it as did London and many of the other big cities. What this means for the future is still unclear. I agree with you nobody will want to actually invoke article 50 as that will unleash the true turmoil. At the moment we have had the big tantrum and are now closing our eyes and counting to ten. What happens next we cannot know for certain but it is unlikely to be calm.
I watch with interest the total lack of courage in conservative politicians as the leading lights of brexit/leave try desperately to avoid becoming associated with the oncoming disaster.
I wish I could have seen Gloria bojos’ face, and Betsy goves, as Cameron delivered his resignation message and they realised their political careers had come to a halt.
Now if they want out, they are going to have to get their hands dirty, and get blamed for the problems…like leaving the EU, and crashing the economy, and losing Scotland and ending the United Kingdom.
Winner.
Never knew Cameron was so devious.
With regard to this blog and a point you made about the UK’s negotiating position, Richard, I note that it’s now reported that pre Article 50 discussions have been ruled out by EU/EC. I’m not at all surprised. With German and French elections due next year, and with the damage being done to French and German enterprises (as well as globally) by our decision set to continue, there’s no way they aren’t going to play (very) hardball. In short, our negotiating position is weak and the rest of the “club” we just put two fingers up to are going to make sure it stays that way (except where it suits them not to do so, obviously).
Ivan
If I am honest, I do not believe them
That is a line that will not hold for more than a few weeks at most I think
But I could be wrong
Richard
What incentive do the EU have to undertake negotiations pre invoking of article 50? They can see the UK is in a deepening political mess. We have no real Prime-minister currently. We have no idea what to do with Scotland or Northern Ireland. We don’t know who the next Tory leader and prime-minister will be. We have no idea if an election will be called when a new Prime-minister is appointed. We have currently no idea what we want Brexit to look like. As soon as a clear picture emerges of a fleshed out Brexit proposal it will undoubtedly upset and cause fury with large sections of Brexit and/or Remain supporters.
Not only do the EU have no incentives to negotiate pre an invoking of article 50 they have nobody from the Brexit side to negotiate with. This is a total mess and one that is going to be slow to go anywhere. The EU can basically just play the ‘’come back when you’ve sorted your mess and are ready to chat properly’’ card. In full knowledge that this mess is not getting sorted quickly. Also the longer we dangle on a stick looking like the bunch of idiots that we now do the more it removes the wind out of the sails of Le Pen, Grillo, Wilders et al. The clear message to the EU electorate, it’s a lot funnier watching a shower of sh1t in another country than having one in your own.
Negotiations are done by civil servants
We have a functioning civil service
And the history is all on the side of this happening
Plus the fact that no one in the EU wants us to leave – I suspect they’d rather change the EU than have that happen – precisely because if we go the precedent is set
They will talk
You could, though I hope for the UK’s sake you aren’t. I have to say that one of the great challenges here is that it’s very difficult to get a handle on all the variables that are or will/need to be in play, precisely because the situation is so dynamic. For example, I started writing a lengthy comment yesterday on the likelihood of an early election, picking up as my main argument a blog you had a few weeks ago about the Tories wanting to be in government only so that they were in power not because they actually want to be a government. But then I saw the news of Corbyn’s woes and binned it as a whole set of variables changed (and continue to change) in front of my very eyes. Dramatic stuff and plenty more to come.
More to come indeed
Some from me, even
So we send civil servants for talks with Brussels but what weight do they carry into these talks? What authority do they have behind them? Who are they ultimately representing? A prime-minister who is leaving? A new prime-minister who has possibly called an election and therefore has an uncertain mandate? Who determines what the civil servants are to ask for? Do the civil service themselves put out suggestions to the EU side to get a grasp of their reactions?
I agree the EU doesn’t ultimately want us to leave as that would set a precedent. But our current shambles and the reporting of it on the continent is doing the EU a lot of favours in terms of showing how difficult leaving is.
I think that you are over dramatising: the EU is made up of politicians and all of them know about the processes that are going on in the UK at present none of them would expect a government in the hiatus that we are, inevitably, facing to undertake serious negotiation
That said, they also know that Belgium lasted for a very long time without a government and that its civil servants were able to, quite reasonably, deal with the EU without direction, albeit on issues that may not have been quite as serious as this. We do have a functioning foreign office: there is no doubt at all that some discussions could take place
Good to hear Peter Hargreaves discussing his decision to vote leave. A canny northerner being positive about the future
Labour in meltdown
Looks more like straightforward arson.
You do realise that if we lose Jeremy, we lose John McDonnell and all his economic advisors and any chance of a government which would scrap Trident.
I know quite a lot that informed my decision