Many politcial commentators have made the point that outsdide London remarkably little power changed hands in the UK this week, and that, superficially, is true. We appear to be stuck in a moment. In politics such situations never last. There will be a disruption, and a period of change, come what may.
I suggest that against expectation this will not come from Labour. Jeremy Corbyn is in office to stay right now and nothing that has happened, including the result in Scotland will change that for the time being, and quite probably until 2020. It is the Conservatives who are likely to provide the disruption. There are at least four reasons.
First, the myth of Crosby is over. The Goldsmith campaign was dire and will provoke a backlash in the party.
Second, the referendum will cause severe disruption for the Conservatives, whatever the result.
Third, Cameron is going come what may and people resent prime ministers who assume office without an election. They have a poor track record whilst leaving trails of dispute in their own party far too close to any election that follows for an easy recovery to take place.
And then there is the minor issue of corruption in the last Conservative election campaign. Ten seats, at least, are being investigated. People would not like by elections beacuse the marginally elected incumbent reached office as a result of fraud.
May 2016 was not destined to be a disruptive moment. But ione is on its way, soemwhere, somehow, soon.