On the day David Cameron gave his speech to the Conservative Party conference this October (the one where I was the butt of his jokes) I suggested to my wife that it wasn't worth getting worked up about his poor taste humour because, little did he know it, but that speech was going to be the high point of David Cameron's life. From thereon, I suggested, it was all going to be downhill for him.
He did, I am sure feel on the crest of a wave on that day. He'd won an election. He's seen off Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. Now he was facing Jeremy Corbyn and was cock-a-hoop. What could go wrong he must have wondered? Well, quite a lot actually, as is already apparent.
George Osborne is making a hash of tax credits. He has to continue doing so because he's made it illegal for himself to do otherwise because of the ill thought out Fiscal Charter.
The backlash from across the political spectrum of deliberately harming the well-being of 3 million of the least well off is going to be enormous, especially when the blow is timed to land at Christmas.
Threatening the Lords if they refuse to go along with Cameron's ill judged policies makes him look stupid and them unduly wise.
Offering corporation and inheritance tax cuts to those already well off has now revealed by just how much this government thinks that we are not all in this together.
Cameron's hatred of overt borrowing has made him go cap in hand to the Chinese for some exceedingly expensive off-balance sheet deals instead.
The Europe issue is beginning to tear his party apart and internationally it's being made clear to him that he'll look a fool if he loses, as looks possible.
English Votes for English Laws is tearing the Union apart.
Despite Labour's move to the left the only people who have quit are some Lords no-one has really heard of, one of whom has not voted for years.
And there is every chance there will be a major economic crisis in the reasonably foreseeable future.
I know the media are focussing their attention on Labour at present but that may be mistaken. Labour's issues will look like nothing if most of the above come home to plague Cameron, as seems possible.
I think we face the possibility of serious realignment in UK politics over the next few years. Many think this will be on the left, and I do not rule that out: Labour is clearly uncomfortable with itself at present. But the stresses on the right look to be much more serious, not least because they hold power right now.
There's a chance that the 2020 election will see a predominantly Labour versus Conservative fight in England and Wales at least. But I am not sure right now. If Cameron and Osborne have called things as badly as looks to be possible on a host of issues the possibility of more radical restructuring looks to be very real indeed. But don't bet on a LibDem revival: Trudeau might have come through the middle in Canada, but I can't see it happening here right now.
Interesting times are ahead, and the need for sound economic policy should be very high on all politician's agenda. What you can be fairly sure of is that austerity does not meet that criteria. Viable alternatives are needed, and People's Quantitative Easing is one of them, as are measures to tackle the tax gap properly. There are more to come. Some are in The Joy of Tax. Others are in development.
If the current economic mess we're in wasn't so serious I'd almost be enjoying the prospect of what is to come. As it is, the fact that people are clearly going to suffer for it makes me very angry. But that's what motivates change, and always has.