It's been an interesting weekend.
Junior doctors marched. Few could doubt the validity of their reasons: they want to work for the NHS as we know it; they want a working life that can be managed alongside the responsibilities they owe to their families and they don't want a significant pay cut imposed upon them. Most of all, from their experience on the front line of public services they have learned not to trust what they have been told by this government.
Then eighty four bishops told the government that its response on the issue of Syrian refugees was inadequate. As ministers manoeuvred on the subject of bombing the bishops rightly said that their focus should be on the human issues Syria is giving rise to. The bishops published their letter because they did not trust the government to respond otherwise
And awareness of the coming crisis in benefits payments increased. According to the IFS it is a mathematical impossibility for those on in-work tax credits not to suffer as a result of the coming changes but the government insists otherwise. And as Jolyon Maugham has shown, these cuts are simply a matter of political choice; they are not necessary. People do not trust the government.
Three coincidences where mistrust is at the core do not make a crisis. But they might suggest one is happening. To put it another way, these events are of themselves symptoms, but if they are all indicative of an underlying malaise then the issue is serious.
I think that is the case. The government has lost the faith of doctors, teachers and lawyers, all of whom are key professionals who have to engage with them. They are fed up with being told to do an improving job in impossible funding situations when they know that this is not necessary.
That is why there is also the concern about tax credit cuts: in truth there is no one who thinks that these are necessary. Benefit cuts at the same time as there are tax cuts for large companies and the wealthiest are about a choice to favour the rich over those less well off.
Discussing bombing when four other countries bombs have already failed to deliver a solution in Syria is much the same: it is favouring the power of the commercial military establishment over ordinary people.
Government is all about choice. This government is, I think, making the wrong choices. And the reason why is it does not believe in the role of government except as the protector of property rights. That is the issue at the heart of all these symptoms: it is not the people who matter in each case, but the fact that they are perceived as impediments to market based solutions.
The government clearly thinks the symptoms of the crisis in confidence in the government that are now apparent can be ignored. I think they are wrong. It's my belief that people are finding there is a limit to the shrinking of the state that they will tolerate. And on the rebound they will look for very different answers.
I just wish people did not have to suffer until such time as those in power have a change of hearts and minds. But as yet the suffering is not even being recognised by those with the power to end it, in which cases these coincidences over the weekend will not make a crisis, because we're already deep in that already.
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“As ministers manoeuvred on the subject of bombing the bishops”
This phrase, although taken out of context, would appear to best sum up the mindset of this Tory government!
My concern is just how bad the welfare state and NHS will become before present strategy is finally jettisoned. There is no sign of a turnaround in the UK government policies as they continue with their dismantling of vital services. I have real concerns about the World my children are going to inherit.
So so I
That is why I wrote The Joy of Tax
Got it on order
Thanks
I gave it five stars
Thank you
Appreciated
Things are going to get very bad indeed, Michael, because even if the government did a U turn on all of their social, health and education policies this would have no impact whatsoever on the raft of destructive forces that have now been unleashed for several years.
As I’ve mentioned before on this blog, the lag between the implementation of a large scale and far reaching policy of cutting public services to the bone across the board and the impacts (both negative and positive)is always two to three years – if not more. And of course news of negative outcomes can be “managed” – as happened/is happening with universal benefits, PIP, social care, etc – particularly where a government has a very sympathetic/sycophantic press which selectively reports everything. It’s largely for this reason that the negative impacts of the previous, Tory Lite, government’s policies were largely invisible before the election.
But we’ve now passed the point at which the impacts can be contained. And as many of them are so significant and large scale they can no longer be “managed” into invisibility – even with the continuing help of the Tory press. To make matters worse for the Tories (and unfortunately for all those citizens who these policies impact), as there was very little if any effort at joined-up policy making (the driving force across central government being simply what can a department of state offer in cuts) we have double, triple and quadruple failures (negative impacts) across a raft of policy domains all coming together. And, as these are almost always part of a system (rather than the atomised view of policy making beloved of neo-liberals), the issues now emerging are more often than not cross cutting and interconnected and thus the failure of policy is magnified accordingly.
So, the “costs’ in terms of human misery and suffering, in terms of the decimation and the NHS, in terms of the abject and continuing failure of housing policy, in terms of the crises in the state education system, in terms of collapsing adult social care, in terms of mental health services in crisis, and so on and on, will continue.
Indeed, I’ve no doubt whatsoever that this government even more so than the previous one will be remembered in history as one of the most incoherent and deliberately incompetent policy makers ever. But then again, I suspect very few of those in government, or their supporters in general, care very much about that. If the UK Tory party’s version of disaster capitalism delivers the neoliberal nirvana they so long for their job will be done.
Ivan
Depressingly likely to be true
Part of this may reappear on the blog tomorrow
Richard
Ivan
I cannot accept that this Government is ‘incoherent’. Pardon me for sayng so but that is not the case. It almost comes across as an excuse for their behaviour. And I know that you do not intend to do that. We must get away from this idea that they do not know what they are doing.
They DO actually know what they are doing.
All I see is the cunning of unreason – premeditated, conscious decisions meant to make life harder. Rather than nudging, they are shoulder barging.
Consider instead that these neo-lib insurgents in our Government hate the concept of Government and are simply working from within it to destroy it like a parasite that eats its host alive.
Why? Well for a start, I honestly do not think they want us to produce children anymore because they effectively want to deindustrialise the country.
There is a Malthusian aspect to their policies I am certain. No industry, no jobs so no (or less) people except those born to inherit riches or property of course who can provide for themselves.
It almost like Pol-Pot ‘Year Zero’ for the UK. All those nasty pits and steel works can go and we can once more have our ‘green and peasant land’ back (note I do mean ‘peasant’ and not ‘pleasant’!).
But it is capitalist extremists not communist extremists in the driving seat this time.
And rather than enabling the Country to benefit from Government spending they would rather get inward investment from China so that the money is kept off the Government’s books ( I wonder what the tax affairs of this arrangement will be Richard?). Will it be a bastardised form of PFI?
They use the rhetoric about hard working people but undermine such people by taking away income top ups. The response: people will end up having 3 jobs like they already do in the USA. Only then will they earn the right to be called the deserving poor.
The NHS is being starved of cash now; our teachers overworked so that both systems will collapse. This will be by design – not an unforeseen outcome due to supposed stupidity or accident. When they privatise the NHS – with a heavy heart of course – we will be relieved – until we see the medical bills.
By saying that they are incoherent you are portraying them as human.
There is nothing humane about the way they are trying to bring ‘change’ to this country.
Understand this Ivan:
They are inhumane
They are cold blooded
They are callous
They are assassins of democracy
Sowers of resentment and growers of tension between communities
Poisoners of the public realm
Pimps of the nation
They are Tories.
I like the reference to Malthus
Interesting…
The sad thing is Labour is not there as an opposition partly because it hobbles itself by having too many M.P’s who do not back their leader to form radical opposition which is what is needed, so the one party state persists elected by 24% of a combination of ‘I’m-alright-jackists’ and those benumbed by economic myths.
What the hell are Mazzucati, Blanchflower, Wren lewis et al up to-we’ve had 5 years of random suffering and it’s set to continue with tax credit cuts and the PIP disaster in progress -it’s time to be blunt, some one has to get the message out PDQ!
The problem is not with those economists
It is with the neoliberals in Labour
I’m afraid that Richard is right concerning Labour. Remember that too many PLP MPs just want to wrestle Tory voters from the Tory party using Tory lite sounding policies.
I love the fact that Corbyn seems genuinely interested in trying to win back those who do not vote. But will the neo-libs in his own party let him try to reach these people? I worry that the message from this version of Labour will end being a garbled-up mess just like Milliband produced because of too many presentational compromises by Corbyn.
That is why I’m sticking with the Greens from now on.
The neo-libs in the Labour party must represent at least 90 of their Mp’s-I think about 20 supported Corbyn-but that doesn’t explain why Corbyn and Mcdonnel aren’t blasting away at the myths. It’s urgent-we’ve still got a one party state if they don’t do something soon.
I agree it is urgent
And the presence of these MPs is the explanation I am afraid
They have to carry the PLP with them
Simon – the continual repeating of the 24% I read everywhere in left leaning comments sections does arguments no favours. The Tories received 36.1% of the votes cast. Labour in 2005 received 35.2%.
Argue for voting reform by all means but don’t pretend the Tories got in by some kind stealth. Under our currrent system they won fairly and they won convincingly.
I do not think either government was representative as a consequence
Except of big business
Hi Pilgrim Slight Return
your comment above summarises my thinking superbly – I’d love to use this piece in a new blog – fully sourced with ownership remaining with you naturally.
Please let me know your thinking
Thanks for your time
JayneL x
Is it true that, in the election campaign, Cameron promised not to cut tax credits? If it is, why aren’t they getting the flack the Liberal Democrats took over the University fees? Is it to do with the owners of the media?
Excellent question
Ian- I think the media seem to tolerate mendacity and cynical manipulation of statistics when it comes to the Tories bashing the most vulnerable-they’ve survived all of it because it goes with the territory. When people are scared ‘they will be next’ they will keep quiet about injustice and hang on to their ‘I’m-alright-jackist’ cult.
Lawyers, solicitors, doctors, small business people, police chiefs, the elderly (ah, but they’ll be dead before it comes to a vote), “hard-working families” and now the Bishops of the Church of England.
I’ve never expected the Conservatives to care about steel-workers in the north, but this seems like they’ve now set about alienating their “natural constituency”.
Still: fixed term parliament and redrawing the electoral boundaries on the basis of a newly “slimmed down” electoral register…
I do not believe that there will be a change in hearts and minds in cabinet.
A reasonable person (translation: mildly cynical) would expect a change in tone and, with the upper echelons of the professions failing to deliver the support (or acquiescence, or silence) that the Conservative party has good reason to expect, I eould expect a substantial public relations effort and some gestures.
An embittered cynic would expect the current cabinet to double down on the current policies and media strategy, with every expectation that favourable media coverage and outright propaganda will deliver the support of core Conservative voters.
I worry that the worst response of all – black propaganda against fat cats and ungrateful mediocrities and closet Corbynists, who would never be employed by the first-rate private-sector service partners who will rescue failing public services* – will be the first response; and, worse, that it will be effective.
* It’s my best guess. Feel free to fill in your own forecast of the propaganda; or buy a newspaper; or rent a former Secretary of State for Health.