The EU is a shambles today. Across it people will be asking, as I have done, if the organisation of which they find themselves a member was the one that they signed up to.
In Greece the answer will be a resounding no.
In Germany there will be some with self-doubt.
In many of the Eurozone countries, and especially those with deficits, there will be some fear.
Everywhere there must be some, quite rational, concern. After all, what has Europe just done? It has stripped a state of its sovereignty and imposed upon it what might be called economic rather than martial law and demanded its obedience. But that law is made by the conqueror, who for all practical purposes we shall call Germany. And the very strong likelihood is that it will fail.
Austerity has not worked in Greece to date. It has delivered a 25% cut in GDP and 50% youth unemployment, under-capitalised banks and a private sector that has failed to invest. There is no sign whatsoever that it can work in the future just because the Germans are in charge. Indeed, that creates the very real possibility that it won't. Why should the Greeks work the salvation of German banks? Would you?
As for privatisation, the Germans have demanded a €50 billion fund. The IMF could find €7 billion of saleable assets, but thought realisations of more than €0.5 billion a year unlikely. That's another failure on the way then.
And as for reforms? These will only happen as fast as people can accommodate them, and that will be nowhere near as fast as Germany demands.
To put it another way, the reform package will fail, resoundingly. No other outcome is foreseeable.
What happens then? What happens, in particular when the all-German myth that everyone could have an economy like Germany's if only they tried, is shattered, as most certainly it will be? And what happens when the great myth that austerity is the route to prosperity is no more? What then will be used as the justification for what has been done to Greece?
These questions are important because the chance that these questions will need answering is very high indeed: I would rank them not as certainties, but as not far short. In the timescale in which the Germans will demand both action and results delivery is just not possible.
That will be truly shocking to Germany. The myth of its might will be shattered.
Faith in Merkel will be rocked.
In other EU countries fingers will be pointed: it wasn't us that dictated these terms they will say.
In Greece the anger of revolt will grow, and because the left will be blamed for this mess (rightly or wrongly) the beneficiary will be the right. There is the risk that some of that anger will be violent, and not just within the boundaries of Greece, I suspect.
How will this be contained? Because what will have begun in Greece will rock the Bundestag. And parliaments across the EU. Of that I think we can be sure.
That's when the need for a new vision of Europe will arise. And we do not have long to build it. But build it we must.
I have said my dream of Europe has come to end. It's time to build a new one.
I will be working on it.
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Just to try to keep a smile in these horrible times-do you think the Germans will turn up in London to demand the Elgin Marbles are handed over ?
Why not. They probably (morally) are part of the “state assets” of Greece.
Maybe Germany will demand ownership of the beaches. At least they will not have to carry loads of towels with them then!
Maybe a re-birth of democracy can arise from the financial rape of the birthplace of democracy?
Now…this is really interesting:
https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2015/07/14/the-financialisation-of-slavery/
Thinking laterally……..maybe we are in an extension of slavery!
Very good
Recommended
Can I also recommend Michael Perelman’s linking of the development of Neoliberalism with the slave owners of the US. Think of zero hours contract, working for benefits and wages reducing…
http://www.academia.edu/12454310/The_Dysfunctionality_of_Slavery_and_Neoliberalism
Dreams for Europe’s future will need to be matched by an analysis that actually engages with the German government’s understanding of how European finance works. The sad fact is that many (most?) voters in Northern European countries accept ‘household budget’ descriptions of our current situation.
By contrast, anti-Neoliberal arguments can come across as intellectual ‘economics lessons’. I suspect that many people on this blog will have experienced that moment when the eyes of a debater ‘glaze over’ when discussion moves to the mechanisms by which money is created.
The pro and anti-neo conservative arguments pass each other by without engaging in a way the average voter can understand.
One suggestion: the Neo-Conservative world view is strongly driven by examples; the Baltic States taking their medicine and moving to prosperity. Ireland buckling down to do the right thing. These debates take the form of morality tales and have an easy to understand appeal. Anti-Neo Conservative discussion needs to address these examples head-on with counter-narratives.
Well founded critical analyses that debunk the Baltic State and Ireland examples are online. However, they are hard to find and infrequently, if ever appear in the National Media. This needs to change.
Do you have links to those narratives?
Let’s share them
OK: here are a few links. Somewhat anecdotal I’m afraid:
The first is a rather old analysis analysis of the Baltic cautionary tale from October 2013. This is followed by a comment that updates elements of the analysis more recently.
http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/2013/10/18/why-the-baltic-recovery-is-not-a-success-story-for-austerity-lessons-for-the-us/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/latvia-the-thrill-is-gone/
I’ve lost the link to a beautifully written article by an Irish writer (in an Irish newspaper I think) debunking claims that Ireland had indeed followed a strict austerity programme. The following article has a different story; that Ireland and Greece can’t be compared because of various fundamental differences in their economies.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/economics-blog/2015/jul/10/ireland-no-model-greece-troika-austerity
Still other articles focus on the problems that have been caused by austerity in Ireland:
http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/irelands-austerity-success-is-no-model-for-greece-340662.html
Looking again at these articles, I’m struck that, although they have much in common, their overall messages do not amount to a simple counter-narrative that will have any traction against the Neo-Con morality tales. For example, there are at least 3 anti-austerity narratives that explain post-austerity growth and appear, on the face of it, to be contradictory:
1. The recovery was due to a loosening of policy that was missed by the media (this is the one used to explain Osborne’s change of tack when he realised there were problems early in the last parliament in the UK).
2. The recovery in one country was due to ‘special’ circumstances and cannot be generalised to other situations (Unfortunately, this is a particularly difficult argument to win as people will compare nonetheless).
3. The recovery is not real. This is framed by arguments as to whether figures have been fiddled (Greece’s nascent recovery last year), and whether the recovery is only for the rich and not the majority of the population (Labour party; UK general election).
I realise that there are ways of reconciling each of the analyses above. However, what we need to accompany an alternative European Dream, as Richard desires, is to simplify the essence of these arguments. Can we tell a new story? One that is rooted in morality that uses the same facts but places them in a compelling and memorable context?
Trevor
I am sure the missing link is to Finton O’Toole
Thanks for these
Richard
“What happens, in particular when the all-German myth that everyone could have an economy like Germany’s if only they tried, is shattered, as most certainly it will be?”
Words fail me when trying to understand how Germany (and Angela Merkel) seem to think that all the EU nations can be net exporters like Germany. This is the only reason Germany can run a Government surplus (that, and the decline in living standards in Germany itself, blamed unsurprisingly on bailouts to the PIIGS!) Who exactly are the rest supposed to export to?
Most of Germany’s export is to other EU states, does Merkel actually want them to stop buying German goods?
Your net exporter position is spot on
Here’s one of those references:
Latvia’s Economic Disaster as a Neoliberal Success Story: A Model for Europe and the US? http://michael-hudson.com/2013/01/latvias-economic-disaster-as-a-neoliberal-success-story-a-model-for-europe-and-the-us/
A good one!
From a good source
You were right about Finton O’Toole. Here is the link:
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/who-will-dare-say-out-loud-emperor-has-no-clothes-1.2267032
News of the situation in Greece is heart breaking not only for the people in Greece, but for millions of people all across Europe who supported the Greek people in the build up to their referendum and celebrated with them after the result.
Those millions of Europeans did so because they believe in democracy and believed the EU was a democratic state. Germany have effectively killed off any illusion of that by their actions against Greece and it’s people. The EU project has failed and democracy is all but dead.
Back in UK however a new group is being formed for people who are concerned about austerity and democracy. The purpose of this group will be to provide a platform for people to get together to discuss, debate, design and build a better, fairer, more democratic UK society &a political system.
Meetings will happen online and it is hoped the first meeting will take place during the last week in July. Anyone resident in UK can join by sending an email to redesigndemocracy@yahoo.co.uk to be added to the list of invitees.
The EU needs to be democratised, not run by appointees, and the single currency, a flawed idea from the start, needs to be scrapped.
Countries need to be able to run their economies independently. If that results in the break up of the EU trade bloc, so be it.
I will be voting against remaining in Europe come what may.
I do not care whether my vote is aligned with UKIP.
The EU is a thoroughly rancid institution run by corrupt bankers and other financial interests.
The EU has failed to sign off accounts for twenty years.
Enough is Enough.
We have to get out before we can effect change in the UK. It can’t be done within a large centralised totalitarian establishment. Power need to be taken back at the local level.
I know this will involve rooting our the corruption in the councils due to corporatist influence.
This has
to be fair the EU has a strange system whereby all the separate accounts have to be signed off before the accounts of the whole can be ‘signed off’.This has been misrepresented for years. The UK runs separate accounts for defence, DWP etc and I think the sign off limit is 95% whereas for the EU it’s 98%. The EU commission has always been signed off: it’s the accounts with member states that are often not.
last time I looked the spending for which they don’t have full accounts amounted to about 4% of the budget which spread over the half billion people of Europe is about ten euros a head. The auditors said that they didn’t think all of of that was fraud.
The problem is the economic system which underlays the decisions you reject. It could be even more dominant in a UK outside the the EU. The solution is change the system.
Correct
Almost no company would, I suspect, meet the EU standard for audit
Having lived and worked in Greece, albeit some time ago, I consider blindingly obvious that a blind eye was turned on Greece’s economic suitability to enter the EU and Euro. Successive Greek Governments have pretended competence at economic management.I don’t blame them, Greece was, probably still is, at root a poor country, and needs to be subsidised if it is a) to have the standard of living of northern Europe and b)keep Russia out of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Fear is a factor that is able to make a people cowed. Fear of the unknown, fear of thinking you are not able to be clever enough, just fear of taking a chance and fear of failure. But to be apprehensive instead of arrogant is not a bad thing. Remember not long ago the demos across Europe against TTIP, and Germany. I joined one here and was rather timid because we were a small group, and you take a little abuse. But so many people said ” good on you” we were heartened. What was striking was that so many people no nothing about TTIP and my dog walking friends wish I would shut up I am sure, but I will not.
Remember, it’s awkward people who change the world
Oh my spelling, I am turning into Hilda Baker. You are all too young to remember her.
No we’re not Sylvia!