This is the conclusion to this morning's FT editorial on Greece, with which I agree:
The Greek people should not be plunged deeper into the abyss to punish the blunders of their rulers.
Whatever condemnation should be heaped upon Mr Tsipras pales next to the blame Greece's creditors would earn if they now reject this final capitulation. Greece is a society on its knees, its economy in ruins and its people in need of humanitarian aid. Now is the time to help it rebuild, not force it to grovel lower.
Germany stands condemned.
And rightly so.
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I have to say that I’m utterly confused by the behaviour of Tsipras and indeed Syriza if they approve the “deal” that’s on offer.
Tsipras said last week that he had no mandate to take Greece out of the Eurozone and it was obvious that that was the bottom line. But surely to god this does not mean handing the entire control of Greece’s economy, and more importantly pretty much every meaningful aspect of government (which thus includes its democratic autonomy), over to the Troika.
The Greek people voted overwhelmingly to reject more austerity. Can it really be the case that if asked whether staying in the Eurozone with none of the underlying issues their country faces resolved, in return for the complete loss of sovereignty and control of their country (ie. becoming a slave nation) they say yes? I just don’t believe it.
I know that the Greek government have looked into the abyss and can see the turmoil that exiting the Euro would bring down on them. But really is it honestly worth this? No wonder the Troika insisted Yanis Varoufakis had to be got rid of.
I can’t see Greece buying this
There is no way Tsipras can deliver this deal
I think his career as PM will be short lived now
And that he will go down in history with Chamberlain
‘Chess’: an error in wargaming, in which we assume that our opponents are rational and base our strategy on incorrect assumptions about their motivations.
‘Chess’ has unpleasant consequences when the leadership has gone into a ‘bunker’ mode and sees mutual destruction as the only future: the other players need to spot that early.
It has a milder form, in which we fail to spot that their agenda – their logic and their ‘victory conditions’ – differ from our own view of the conflict and it’s aims. Not irrational at all, although it may be derided as such: there’s a player with a different rule book, and differing objectives.
So ask yourself: can I step back and see how this might look rational to *them*?
And on an entirely unrelated note, let’s steop back and look at the vehicle in place for the Franco-German rescue: The IfG.
The Institition for Greece has some interesting business partners. Or rather, owners:
https://www.kfw.de/KfW-Group/Newsroom/Aktuelles/Pressemitteilungen/Pressemitteilungen-Details_203840.html
To clarify: the organisation receiving all Greek infrastructure assets and exacting rents in perpetuity over the Greeks is a subsidiary of KfW.
I wonder if the interesting Mr. Schaubel who runs KfW is related to anyone in the Troika.
Deeply troubling
Prior approval of all draft legislation before it can be debated in Parliament is an interesting clause.
That’s “You are no longer a sovereign nation” and “We are your electorate now” nicely wrapped up.
I hear that there’s a line item in the ‘reforming labour relations’ clauses that specifically legalises mass dismissal in a labour dispute.
That’s a recipe for conflict, and it will be interesting to see how that is backed up by force when the companies are picketed: what side will the Police take, and who or what will be used as a militia for strike-breaking?
Students of industrial relations in the 1930’s will be happy to explain the London dockers’ animosity to Oswald Moseley and his Blackshirts: ask, then sit back and watch the look of horror on their faces when they realise that you’ve actually asked a question about 21st-Century Greece and Golden Dawn.
Also: we’ve seen that it’s a very bad idea to let a hostile foreign power be your ‘Central Bank’ – they can and will pull the plug as a negotiating tactic – and I had better not speculate on how that might play out with all the other infrastructure in the hands of KfW.
My personal opinion is that the most likely outcome is that this will be thrown out emphatically: if not immediately, then by mass demonstrations in the next two years. That can be postponed by deft footwork and monetary sweeteners, this week and next: but all indications are that all significant actions by the Troika will be vindictive and politically inept.
If you’re in an abusive relationship sometimes you can’t see it yourself. Your emotions and thoughts are not coherent. Often the abuser offers protection as well as control. You think if you stay the abuser might change.
Then by chance you meet a counsellor who tells you that abusers never change. And the answer is and always was to walk away completely and as far away as possible.
Senor Rajoy saying stability and calm now needed! Will the people buy it.
I doubt it