George’s nightmare

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George Osborne did not expect to win the election. No party did. But he did, and as a result inherited a nightmare from the previous administration and an election fought with the expectation of a coalition outcome. His position is, as a result, exceptionally difficult.

The offer to hold a referendum on Europe to keep the Tory far right from defecting to UKIP leaves a massive economic and political risk on the horizon that might have implications for growth prospects for years to come. 

The City is growing in influence again. The chance of another melt down before the delayed measures designed to tackle issues arising from the last one are put in place in 2018 are high.

Interest rates could rise soon, whether he likes it or not. This will severely impact growth. It may also cause mortgage defaults and so create a banking crisis.

And Scotland sits on the sidelines waiting to exit.

Mervyn King said post the 2008 crash that the 2010 election wasn't one to win. I wonder if he got his timing wrong?