I have already suggested that I think come Friday morning that if election results are anything like those predicted by all opinion polls the Conservatives will, with active LibDem support, try to form a government.
I stress, they have a right to do so.
I also expect that this government will fail when it tries to present a Queen's Speech at the end of May.
Given that this failure is foreseeable what should Labour do? It seems to me that it has only one real option. What it cannot do is accept opposition: that would be fatal. What it should do instead is prepare a government in waiting. After all, given the conditions laid down by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and the foreseeable failure of the attempt to form a government by the existing Coalition I think it has no choice but do otherwise.
By definition the LibDems will rule themselves out of this new coalition. I cannot see how including them would be possible if they decide to back the Conservatives.
That though will still leave a rainbow coalition from which to draw to form a government.
I am ware that the SNP are very unlikely to want office, but let's wait and see. I amy be surprised.
The SDLP, Plaid and the Greens may all prefer to not be neutered in debate by being in office because of their limited number of MPs.
But Labour has to, surely, negotiate with all those parties on how it might form a government, what it might seek to achieve, and each must make clear on what issues they would not support Labour if it runs a minority administration.
Would anything else be responsible? After all, if the Coalition thais likely to try to rule until late May collapses then Labour has to hit the ground running.
And in my opinion it has to start the public preparation for that possibility so that people know that an alternative is possible well before the Coalition fails, if it does.
I sincerely hope the preparations for stating this are in place for Friday morning, because they certainly need to be.
Or to put it another way, whatever David Cameron says on Friday Ed Miliband has to make clear he is waiting to get the keys to Number 10, and is preparing for Cameron to hand them over. If democracy is to be seen to work that has to happen.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
It is going to be very close. The DUP 9/10 seats might be crucial. Tories + Libs + DUP might just have enough to squeak a majority, although the Tories will need 290 to make this happen which is at the top end of their expectations.
Otherwise Miliband will be in I think.
That is possible
But would he really want to rely on the DUP?
Regarding the Lib Dems, it looks a bit cheap but I don’t see why they can’t argue “well we tried to follow the electorate and support the biggest party, but that clearly isn’t possible so we are now open to other coalition parties”.
Because no one will trust them?
Mercenaries aren’t popular
If this scenario plays out, it should be pretty clear to LDs from the outset that they won’t be part of a majority with the Conservatives: they’ll be part of a minority coalition.
Provided they see that and aren’t sufficiently impressed by possible help from the Tory Media, they might choose to keep their powder dry from the outset and not become part of a duly rejected coalition.
Pre-election talk from Clegg doesn’t seem to point this way, though.
We can hope
Hear Hear!
Maybe Ed Milliband would rather be in opposition than at the head of a multiparty coalition/alliance with a very small majority.
Far better to let the Tories/Lib-dems implode over the sheer scale of proposed unpopular attacks on public spending and the divisive EU issue, than the alternative of basically trying to impose similar austerity measures.
He would never be forgiven
I don’t agree; allowing that Tory/LibDem government to implode would be seen as clever.
But it won’t come to that as Carol and others point out; you have assumed in your comment that the Lib Dems would be united in joining the Tories, I don’t think the evidence supports that view. At the very least they would leak sufficient MP’s to prevent an overall majority to that coalition resulting in the chance for Miliband to try to form one instead.
Whether forming a slim majority government at the beck-and-call of the DUP and the SNP with another global financial crash in the offing is a wise thing to do is anither question …
Isn’t there a possibility that the Libdems will split on Clegg’s wish to side with tories?
Now that would be interesting
Yes Carol 🙂 LibDem party members and MPs have had plenty of time to think about this option and not be caught on the hop, or have undue confidence of the promises made by coalitioners.
I can’t add anything of use to this or your previous blog, Richard, but did think it worth highlighting this useful piece from The Guardian of likely key results tonight and into the small hours.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/06/the-seats-to-stay-up-for-and-the-numbers-that-matter-on-election-night
Also, this excellent explanation of what happens if no overall majority – for anyone who wants to unpack the facts from the fiction of legitimacy and “con trickery” that Cameron and the Tory press have been bombarding their readers with (on the evidence of my trip to the barbers with considerable impact on the man in the street).
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/05/qa-on-the-possible-post-election-scramble-for-the-keys-to-no-10
Are you doing any punditry anywhere? If not, I’m assuming you’ll be blogging and tweeting through the night. I’ll stick it out until 4am ish so I’ll give the blog a look.
That’s all from me for today. Thanks for all your elections insights and discussions of the past few weeks. Here’s hoping the polls are wrong and Miliband gets more seats.
Cheers
Ivan
Ivan
I’m not punditing for anyone – I am seen as apolitical and so of no interest
It’s an occasion when I actually rather like that
I will be up well into the night though….
See you then
Richard
If the Tories struggle to pass a Queen’s Speech with the remainder Lib Dems, Labour would call for Clegg’s head and negotiate with the new leader I guess.
Personally I don’t think the Tories will be in a position to form a government. I’m not always right though!
Nearly equal percentage-wise.
Worth noting the bias in the present system.
Labour will have a majority if they are 3 points clear, Conservatives need an 11 point lead.
In 2010 the come had a 7 point leads at the polls, but no majority.
No offence intended JohnM but the type of comment about system-bias really irritates me. The number of card-carrying party members is tiny in comparison to the eligible electorate. We are also told that voters are less tribal than they used to be. Therefore the only bias in the system is the inertia of those who pay no attention to politics and the politicians who are happy with this (bread and circuses come to mind). It would be within the wit of a very good candidate and party machine to try and reach out to voters in enough cases to swing a seat or ten. Yet they don’t do it. I live on a secluded glen in Scotland but not one politician seeking major office has bothered to come out here and talk to us in the twenty years I’ve lived here. Not one. I don’t know what they’re doing with their time but if I were a candidate I would be up here at least once a year LISTENING to people. It is literally incredible…
I think the time has come for compulsory voting with an extra candidate at the bottom of the ballot paper called “none of the above”!
Yes
Auto spell correct is rubbish.
Bottom line should be “the cons had a 7 point”
AllanW says “I don’t agree; allowing that Tory/LibDem government to implode would be seen as clever.”
Too clever by half, in my view, and probably in the eyes of most of the electorate, as putting Party interests a head of the public good.
How about a Labour- Conservative Coalition?
Not in a formal context perhaps- but it has happened in other countries.
It would mean MPs of the Centre ground keeping out the nationalists and
the Lefties.
I am proud to be left wing and to stand up for those in need
Your presumably would like to see them oppressed?
What do people here reckon to this? Is it legitimate?:
The Tories and their supporters in the press are preparing a post election plan to stay in office even if Labour and the SNP have more seats in Parliament.
They are planning to declare that they are the legitimate government and have the right to form an administration.
This was the meaning of the recent Times editorial which urged Cameron to ‘Occupy Downing Street’. This will be a ‘constitutional coup’ against the wishes of the electorate.
That’s why we are calling for an immediate protest if this happens:
Assemble: Saturday 9 May 1pm, Downing Street.
We cannot allow the Tories to get away with using a flagrant abuse of power to impose the most severe austerity this country has seen since the Second World War.
We will use this facebook event page to keep you updated about any changes to the time of the demonstration depending on the outcome of the election. Watch this space and, please, invite your friends and share the facebook event page.
More info:
Seumas Milne in the Guardian: “The Tories are plotting a coup in the name of legitimacy”Owen Jones in New Statesman: “if the Tories get more seats than Labour, get ready for a Very British Coup”
Whatever happens, the People’s Assembly ‘End Austerity Now’ national demonstration on Saturday 20 June is more important than ever.
Please keep spreading the word and lets make sure the new government feels the full force of the anti-austerity majority in Britain out on the streets in just six weeks time.
Tell the new government: End Austerity Now
National demonstration, Saturday 20 June
Assemble: 12pm, Bank of England
Surely this cannot be true?