I haven't always got my calls on the stock exchange right. No one does. Bu what I have said, consistently, is that the current market has been overvalued for some time. The fundamentals of consumer demand to support current values do not exist; QE funding has distorted markets, companies themselves have no clue what to do with the money they've got and we have a cohort of company leaders who are intent on extracting value for themselves and not making it for others. Add that up and there's no way markets should be near all time peaks, even though they are (and yes, I do know indexation has an impact here).
I'm not alone in thinking this. The FT reports today:
US stocks are being propelled to fresh highs by investors borrowing a record amount of money in a high stakes gamble that is raising concerns over the potential for a sharp correction in the five-year bull run.
With the S&P 500 registering a fresh closing peak of 1,859.45 last week, margin debt – money borrowed to buy stocks – hit a record level in January, according to data from the New York Stock Exchange.
Peaks in the use of borrowed money have in the past been a precursor to big bear markets and viewed as a warning sign.
We're living in a speculative bubble. And we all know what happens to them.
This isn't as worrying as what' happening in Ukraine. But add it to your list. It should be there.