The OECD has issued new growth forecasts.
Or to put it another way — it says growth is disappearing fast.
So George Osborne — who three months ago hailed OECD and G20 support for his plans to slash and burn the UK economy as key intellectual support for what he was planning really should think again — because even the OECD is now saying of the second half slow down it says is happening continues then stimulus and not cuts is needed and planned spending cuts should be delayed.
Will George listen?
I doubt it.
The OECD says if its advice is heeded there won’t be a recession.
But George has set his heart on one. And I bet George has always got what he’s set his heart on. So recession, here we come.
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Richard,
a couple of points:
First.
Carlo Padoan (OECD Chief Economist)says in a video accompanying the recent forecasts: “.. but I would definitely say that the likelihood of downturn is very small. So we continue to believe there will be a somewhat slower growth going forward.”
You claim “So recession, here we come”. You may be correct in your prediction, I guess by this time next year we should know. But it is one that the OECD clearly does not agree with.
Second.
Has George Osborne really set his heart on a recession?
You can certainly put together a case that he is misguided in his judgements, that they will result in renewed recession (although that does not seem to be what the OECD believes will happen). You can also argue that the burden will fall unfairly on certain groups – the elderly, the low paid, public sector workers for example.
But to claim that he has his heart set on recession – I find that hard to believe. Why on earth would he would he want a recession? I imagine that Osborne would like to be remembered as a successful Chancellor. He will find that hard to achieve if Britain goes back into recession and if as you have argued “the cuts won’t actually reduce the deficit”.
In that case, with an economy back in recession and having failed to reduce the deficit, Osborne will have failed. So why do you think he has set his heart on recession?