Nice line from a commentator on Question Time:
“When Vince Cable is to the right of Peter Hitchen then the Liberal democrats really are finished.”
I think he’s right.
Vince had a torrid time and looked profoundly uncomfortable. Most of the programme he could not lift his eyes from the table in front of him.
And tonight we learn that his successor as Lib Dem deputy leader is planning to challenge the budget plan to increase VAT.
This is all going to end in tears very soon.
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I don’t often agree with you Richard but Vince looked like a guy with resignation all over his face. The power at any cost approach the Liberals have taken has deeply compromised them as a credible party and I believe come the next election they’ll be down to 20-30 seats.
I think Cable won’t be around for long (he’ll retire to spend more time with the family). I also think this will mean the end of policies such as GAAR without guys like him to drive it forward.
The problem with the libdems is simply the problem with the electoral system. As a third party, they will always be unrepresented in parliament. They were presented with the first chance in over 30 years to be a part of government. If they had turned it down, that chance might not have come along for another 30 years. So they had to do it.
But of course you’re correct – this is not and never was going to be a marriage made in heaven. The libdems will struggle to stay intact, and I suspect the government will fall, within 6-12 months.
My real fear, however, is that the country is as divided as ever. I can’t see a further general election producing a very different outcome to the recent one. The problem then is when a system appears to have reached an impasse, the door opens for the charismatic but (potentially) dangerous leader to sweep in on popular sentiment: Boris Johnson for PM in 2012 after another hung parliament in 2011?
Strange performance from Uncle Vinnie. I thought he came accross quite well, but he did seem to have his eyes closed a lot!
End in tears? Meaning exactly what? The end of the UK?
And then what?
Unfortunately, the Condem’s false analogy of the UK economy as a household budget plays as well with today’s voter as it did in 1979 when Thatcher used it…. 59% approval for the budget …. I just want to weep!
@Syzygy
But it is democracy!
@mad foetus
I can see your point on the Lib Dems – a lot of people were saying that a Tory- Lib Dem coalition was a better option than a Tory minority government. However, the Lib Dems don’t seem to have made much impact on economic policy at all – the only part of the budget which was even vaguely progressive was the increase in capital gains tax and even that was not the full Lib Dem manifesto commitment. The income tax personal allowance threshold increase was something the Tories wanted to do in the long run anyway but said they couldn’t afford – so in the end the Lib Dems shifted the Tories to the RIGHT on that issue. The rest of it was a neo-Thatcherite budget from the right of the Tory party.
I think the Lib Dems will split over this with the coalition surviving because a handful of Lib Dem MPs – including Clegg and some of the other ministers – will stick with the Tories. They may even JOIN the Tories. The rest of the Lib Dems – Vince Cable, Steve Webb, Simon Hughes etc – will form another party, probably led by Cable – who would be very effective as a leader. This may end up merging with Labour or at least running some kind of electoral pact. At any rate I think we could be looking at a move from a three-party to a four party system in the short run, but probably after that back to a two party system, with the fragments of the Lib Dems being absorbed into the Tories and Labour respectively. I think Labour or Labour plus the “progressive liberals” will win the next election, which won’t be until 2015 because the Tories can survive until then with the remaining Lib Dems plus Northern Ireland Unionists.