Overstated? Not by one iota

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Some might say this melodramatic:

[T]he idea that a quick recession would purge the world of past excesses is ludicrous. The danger is, instead, of a slump, as a mountain of private debt - in the US, equal to three times GDP - topples over into mass bankruptcy. The downward spiral would begin with further decay of financial systems and proceed via pervasive mistrust, the vanishing of credit, closure of vast numbers of businesses, soaring unemployment, tumbling commodity prices, cascading declines in asset prices and soaring repossessions. Globalisation would spread the catastrophe everywhere.

But that's Martin Wolf in the Financial Times. It's cold, calm analysis.

And the risk of that private debt falling over is enormous and if it does watch the insurance companies tumble first: they're laden with it.

The crisis has only just begun. Which makes today's stock market rise very strange indeed.