15.15 This is my ‘off the cuff’ reaction to what is being said, as it happens.
I’ll update it regularly as the afternoon progresses.
15.35 Bank losses will be $3 trillion.
15.40 FSA will look at accounting rules
15.42 Crown Dependencies impose cost without making payment to Exchequer - regulation will be looked at and Commission is looking at this for the spring. But I doubt it is enough.
15.43 £100 billion has been made available to banks. Rights issues will be easier in future though
15.44 Claimant count is 2 million below 1990s - I think he’s being optimistic.
15.45 We need a new boost for the economy as there will be a fall in output across the world: growth this year 0.75%. Next year will be in recession, at least for first two quarters but expect -1% growth
15.45 Inflation will be 0.5% next year
15.45 Growth will recover in 2010 - too late for Labour who go to the polls in May 2010
15.46 At least he hits the Tories hard
15.46 Yvette Cooper looks knackered sitting behind him
15.46 £20 billion fiscal stimulus announced
15.47 Claims the rule was met over the last cycle but now we have a new one, and is relaxing them
15.48 Will recover in the medium term he says: has a ‘temporary operating rule’ to restore balance - I think he means a flipping big loan account - to be repaid by 2015 - 2016
15.48 Confirms 1998 objectives on growth etc
15.48 35% less tax from finance sector this year - that’s £4 billion of corporation tax
15.48 Borrowing £78 billion this year and £118 billion next, falling back to 105, 78 and then less. By 2015 will only borrow to invest: that’s a long recovery.
15.49 UK net debt up to 57% GDP in 2013, and then back. This is within EU rules: there is no threat on that, and a lot less than many other countries now.
15.50 Invest in economy: will still do it and supply improved services: and will raise money from efficiency savings (but he doesn’t say what)
15.51 By 2011 spending will be £680 billion
15.53 We’re getting to the nitty-gritty
15.54 £3 billion capital brought forward for motorways, housing and schools + energy efficiency - not really a green new deal - far too little in fact - a mere token gesture
15.55 Will cut VAT - to inject spending - VAT 15% to end 2009 - madness. Happens from 1.12.08. £12.5 billion - back of an envelope. Wants retailers to pass it on. Optimist.
15.56 Measures for low incomes - temporary tax cut for 10p rate will be permanent
15.58 April 2011 will increase all NIC rates by 0.5%
15.59 Raise NIC start point to income tax level
15.59 £150,000 45% income tax from April 2011 - for top 1% of incomes
16.00 Personal allowance will be restricted from £100,000 of income - a recommendation from The Missing Billions. This will be in 2011
16.01 Will increase duties on alcohol and cigarettes so prices do not fall - heavily regressive move
16.02 Economy will be in balance from 2015
16.02 Wants to create foreign dividend exemption and will improve CFC rules
16.03 Small businesses - HMRC will allow tax to be spread - all taxes if business is in trouble - for as long as they need - I hope they staff this properly
16.04 Small businesses need loans - £1 billion available to small businesses
16.05 Small company rate increase deferred
16.06 Loss claims will be carried back for 3 years so long as no more than £50,000.
16.07 Green measures - better targeted air duty - better insulation - but only £100 million - is monitoring retail prices and threatens the companies
16.09 Oil and gas for the North Oil is subject to review
16.10 Wants a low carbon world - £535 million for environmental, rail and insulation - this feels like a double count to me - but he claims he’s making 1 million green jobs - clearly he’s heard of the Carbon Army the Green New Deal has been promoting
16.12 Mortgage market guarantees - is looking to do this and rebuild the loan backed mortgage market - oh heck - do we want a state backed Granite?
16.13 Want to work out how to help people in work can keep their homes
16.13 Measures will be taken on repossession - no action until arrears have happened for three months - no time at all
16.14 £15 million for debt advice - won’t go far
16.15 £200,000 mortgages will be covered when people lose jobs - still seems incredibly low in London
16.15 Cover extended to some second mortgages
16.16 More social housing - essential - however unpopular with some - life is not possible without good housing and it’s beyond the means of far too many
16.17 Better training - but this sounds half hearted and I suspect not new
16.19 Cars - will limit some duty increases - I think that’s absurd - we need to tackle green issues now
16.20 Saving - saving gateway - 8 million people will get 50p added for every £1 saved - but so cumbersome it’s going to have little impact
16.22 Some benefit increases brought forward - but a phone call prevented me hearing what
16.23 Still says will eradicate child poverty - abolishing the domicile rule will pay for this
16.24 Increase in pension credit and pensions - above inflation at highest rate in the year - which is fair
16.25 Child benefit goes up from January - what will I spend it on?
16.26 £60 pension bonus in January
He sits down
