This election isn’t over yet

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Some will have noticed that I took a day off yesterday. A day walking, talking, watching a film and relaxing has to be done occasionally. 

What surprises me this morning is that so much of the media appears to be taking the election off as well. Andrew Rawnsley has already begun his post-election analysis of the Lib-Dems failed campaign. In much of the media it is settled fact that Corbyn is an anti-Semite, when many Jews (such as Michael Rosen) would argue otherwise. His campaign is, therefore, apparently over. And Johnson appears to get away with whatever he wants, most especially with the supine BBC, who I will suggest (in advance) have had one of the worst campaigns.

It’s as if for all the hope of alternatives there is now only one issue left in this campaign as far as that media is concerned. That, of course, is Brexit. And it is as if it has been accepted that the very obvious Tory deal with Farage, which saw him shaft every single one of his declared supporters in pursuit of his own hope for a peerage, resolved all doubt on this issue: the assumption is that it is going to happen, irrespective of the fact that no one knows how, or with what consequence.

I have to say that I am not so sure that the election is a done deal as yet. I note the LibDem decline. I note too that it probably means tactical voting will be less relevant in a great many constituencies. That may be no bad thing.

I note too the hint that Tory appeal may have peaked. That is hardly surprising. It was at the limits of plausibility. As such a down turn was always likely. I think Johnson’s continuing, quite literal, poor showing will encourage this trend. 

I also sense Farage played his card too early, and now people realise that with pro-Brexit discussion virtually off the table there are other issues of concern and they are considering them. The NHS and, maybe, the environment are other obvious issues. And as a result I note the Labour vote is increasing and firming. 

I will stick my neck out and suggest that this might continue to be the case. No one is going to love Corbyn a lot more over the next couple of weeks. But they may love Johnson a lot less. Swinson is out of the race - even LibDem members tell me that. And for the record, Ed Davey would be worse. This results in a situation where Labour can win more seats now. I suspect a much closer result than many suggest likely. 

The media may be bored by this campaign. But quietly I think small swings with big implications may be happening. I have to hope so.