As close to certainty as anyone can get

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I was tempted to write a blog entitled ‘I don’t know’ this morning. There were, and are, good grounds for doing so. No one does know what might happen in the UK’s fevered political scene: the possible options are too varied to be sure.

And yet, that claim would also be untrue in some ways. There are some things we do know.

As a matter of fact about one third of the UK remains Tory, come what may. Whether that is hard to understand because the party appears so far removed from the one its current supporters used to vote for does not matter. For most of them the only alternative is the Brexit Party. They can dismiss any suggestion that they are extremist by suggesting there is something worse. And like it or not, hard Brexit is now what most of them want, whether  they could explain why or not.

And I think it probably a fact that at present support for Labour is less than it is for the Tories, whilst the LibDems are doing better than they dared hope at any time recently, even if their vote is heavily boosted by Remainers suggesting that they will vote tactically. 

These are close to facts.

And the fact is that this delivers a political mess. They suggest that we may get a Tory majority, which would be dire for the UK. And we may get a hung parliament when the seemingly inevitable election happens, and the outcome of that is far from predictable. 

So I am back to not knowing. 

Except for this. 200,000 people marched for Scottish independence in the streets of Edinburgh yesterday. Search the English press online and there will be little or no hint of it. But that was 3.7% of the Scottish population. Anything much above 3% is considered a tipping point on such issues. Proportionately this was likely to have been bigger than the demonstrations against Blair’s Iraq was.  And that is a sure sign that come what may Scotland has little overall desire to stay in the Union. I happen to think it, and Northern Ireland, will leave. 

I stress, I do not know. But I know that the probability is growing.Right now, that’s as close to certainty as anyone can get.