This is a discussion of how tactical voting in the Euro Elections works.
https://www.facebook.com/scientistsforeu/videos/1454252711379393/
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I would be a bit cautious about this. James Kelly is an expert on opinion polls etc and does not think it is possible to vote tactically in this system (beyond the basics of not voting for a no-hope remain party, i.e. if they are unlikely to get at least 10% then vote for somebody else). Certainly in Scotland the Greens seem to have a better change than the Lib Dems.
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/05/if-anyone-tells-you-that-tactical.html
I am persuaded otherwise by the weighting in the system which seems to me to mean tactical voting is possible AND desirable
And for an alternative, skeptical view: https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/05/if-anyone-tells-you-that-tactical.html
This link may be of interest because whilst mainland Britain has the ‘keep up the mainstream parties dominance’ D’Hondt system, Northern Ireland – at the time it was decided upon – surely too dangeous to mess with, doesn’t!
http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/european-parliament-elections-the-uk-voting-systems
Sadly it’s quite wrong for voters in Scotland (can’t really comment on elsewhere), suggesting the LibDems.
James Kelly’s piece on the subject is worth a read:
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/05/if-anyone-tells-you-that-tactical.html?m=1
The link to Remain Voter provides a recommendation to vote Green in East of England to counter the Brexit vote.
Whilst I would like to do this, it is clear that it is not so straightforward, and that the main task is to increase the LidDem vote.
The latest YouGov poll includes a regional breakdown, which for the East of England is:
Brexit 40%
Labour 15%
Conservative 9%
LibDem 17%
Change 4%
Green 10%
UKIP 3%
This gives seats as follows:
Brexit 4 seats
Labour 1 seat
LibDem 1 seat
Green 1 seat
I would suggest a tactical aim would be to seek to increase the LibDem vote so that it is greater than half the Brexit vote, ie to 21%, which should provide it with a second seat. At the same time seek to increase the Green vote so that it is greater than a quarter of the Brexit vote, ie to 11%. That should make sure it gets the seat it currently has, but which is rather a close call.
So the mantra might be as follows:
If you would have voted Green, do that.
If you would have voted LibDem, do that
If you would have voted Change, vote Green instead.
If you intend to vote Labour, but regard curtailing the Brexit vote a higher priority, vote LibDem. Otherwise vote Labour.
This would give LibDem that extra seat at the expense of Brexit. May seem a small gain overall but Brexit are at their strongest in East of England and it would mean they have to share the spoils ( three seats each) with remain-minded parties. Otherwise they can demonstrate a clear win.
I can provide the d’Hondt breakdown to illustrate all this if required.
In short, this is not a time to follow the usual allegiances or preferences, but to do the right thing for the nation [cue stirring music].
I will be voting Green
I think that has best chance of delivering more Remain seats in my area
And it also fits my conviction best at this moment
The D’hondt voting system – encourages the professionalisation of politics – which is partly why the Uk is in the mess it is (there are plenty of other reasons). The point is, if people vote for a party – they should be able to also rank their preferences within that party list. If this was available, I would ALWAYS list based on age – youngest first, oldest last on the basis that the old buggers have had their chance – time to give young people a go.
The D’hondt system leads to fossils such as verhofstadt & Juncker in the EP. I have nothing personally against them – but they have passed their political “sell-by-date” by perhaps 20 years – ditto around 70% of the Ep (& ditto the UK HoC). Politics is often corrupt, the d’Hondt system just makes it more corrupt because it keeps party placemen in power..
Has anyone any thoughts on Gina Miller’s ‘Remain United’ tactical voting. It doesn’t seem to think that Change UK will get any seats, which contradicts ‘Remain Voter’ that suggests Change UK for the South East (my area). Remain United suggest either Lib-Dem or Green so it’s Green for me, I don’t want to vote Change UK but would if both suggested they could get more seats.
The primary objective is to maximise the pro-Remain vote and in the English constitiuencies that means the Lib Dems, Greens and ChangeUK. The second objective is to seek to minimise the risk in the final round with one seat left to be filled that these three will end up with enough votes to win two seats between them but none of them having enough votes individually to win the seat – and either Labour or the Tories snaffling it undeservedly.
In this context the tactical voting recommendations on this site seem to makes some sense. But I’m always uneasy about these tactics and I think pre-Remain voters should vote for whichever of these three parties is closest to their personal preferences.
It’s very simple, really.
If you wish the UK to remain in the EU vote Green in England and Wales. (SNP in Scotland.)
If you wish the UK to leave the EU in order to increase the impact of your vote crosses should be placed in all the boxes of the Remain parties…Con, Lab, Brexit, Change, AND UKIP. That way your preference will be quite clear. 🙂