What now seems a very long time ago, on 19 June 2016, I wrote about what I thought would happen in the event that the country voted for Brexit. Of course, I did not get everything right, but I did predict that we would end up with a torrid blue on blue mess as a result of Tory infighting, and that is where we now are. I also predicted that we would leave, and that after doing so - which would be calamitous - there would be a need for a coalition dedicated to:
- Electoral reform
- House of Lords reform
- EU readmission on revised terms
- A national economic plan.
That government would, I suggested, seek a mandate for no more than two years. Then there would be new elections and a referendum on the terms for re-admission to the EU.
I happen to still think that is what may well happen in the longer term on this issue - I predicted this for 2020. But we have to get there first. So what might happen before we get to such a position?
I have to say, I can offer no more certainty than anyone else. As I write the country is expecting Michael Gove's resignation, and the demise of Leavers in government as they abandon the mess that they have created. But what happens thereafter is speculation. But, given that I have never ducked from such activity, I am going to offer my guess.
First, just about every Tory Leaver will leave government. That might include Gove, Hunt, Mordaunt and Javid, each fancying their chances as May topples.
Secondly, May will topple, but will stay as interim prime minister as that is what the rules require.
Third, the Tories will suffer infighting of a sort never known. Who might emerge as Leader is anyone's guess. I do not rule out Dominic Grieve except for the fact that the membership is Leave inclined, which leaves Give the most likely. Except for the fact that who could trust him?
Fourth, the November EU Summit will not happen.
Fifth, the EU, looking into an abyss that it would rather not face will offer to extend the Article 50 notice period. May will accept, even at the cost of including the UK in the EU elections next summer. The reasoning on all parts will be that a new UK Tory government (they cannot be forced from office at present) must be given the chance to negotiate for itself, and without Article 50 extension that would not be possible.
Thereafter? Then it gets harder. A Leave Tory will try to renegotiate. The EU will not wear it. A new impasse would be reached. Article 50 would be extended again and a new referendum will be offered. The question will be whether to accept the deal on the table (no one could ignore it) or stay. I cannot see a leave option getting through the Commons.
The likelihood is that the vote would be stay.
But suppose, instead, that somehow a vote was offered that compared no deal and the deal now on the table? That vote would be the deal on the table. I have no doubt of that. 25% to 30% would vote no deal: the rest would be pragmatic compromisers.
Is there an option where we get to leave with no deal, as one rather excited Leaver said to me was the only possible outcome now? I cannot see it. Not with no more than 15% of the Commons, very few of the Lords and a majority of the country not wanting it: there is no chance of that. And that is most especially because the EU will seek to avoid it, hence Article 50 extensions.
What then? I'm told on the grapevine that Leavers will not accept this outcome: civil disturbance is likely. I think that is possible. Hence the route to a coalition; a national government after an almost inevitable general election as the Commons fails to agree again - or is pulled down by such a coalition acting to do so. Then there will be the fundamental reforms to make sure that UK politics will never again present people with three options in England and Wales that almost no one finds especially palatable. The Scots are in a different place, of course.
And I should add, in all this the move towards another Scottish referendum is almost inevitable, and likely to pass - just to escape the mayhem.
Who will lead that Coalition? Caroline Lucas, most likely. Precisely because she would not be from any major player in it.
And if that all sounds like wild fantasy, maybe it is. But we've not been here before.
And there's one but I do suggest is taken very seriously. Right now, the need to prepare for disorder should be high on the government's priorities: the risk is real.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
A fair and well considered assessment by all accounts.
I agree with Pilgrim with my usual caveat’s ‘it’s worse than we think’ etc. I’ve just read Edward Watts’ ‘Mortal Republic: how Rome fell into tyranny’. a very scary tome trying to recover lessons from “Roman democracy” – of which there was none. The essential reasoning here is we need to protect democratic institutions. I neither believe there were any in Rome or that we have any. We have a pale monitory democracy, and as with Trump, no one here dares to declare the Emperor has no clothes. Debate follows the Athenian tradition (Thucydides again) of not sorting out what is right and decent, but variations on the national interest. For the Athenians this was whether to get the ships they had sent to commit genocide back or not. The decisions to commit genocide and then recall were from one day to the next as I recall, hardly with a two-year gap in which the information has changed.
May (perhaps unwittingly) has been spewing slogans on her own iron will like an advocate of hitting the stupid masses over the head with them to seize or keep power. It seems we ignore 1930s history. Richard’s good sense is seen as mere pandering to intellectuals too vapid to keep their eye on the ball. Labour are pretending their own version of this on “we care” with no plan. The mejar barely seem to notice and merely put themselves and cronies on to comment. The slight hope is that MPs and Lords could adjust themselves. If we were marking these guys and gals Richard, the demands on our time in resits would be grim. Socrates would have a field day asking ‘why do you think that then’? Apart from some valid stuff on JIT manufacturing networks, I can’t remember any valid debate.
Add a European Investment plan and I’m in. I fear we will end up writing history on the dire rhetoric in the last days of corrupt empire.
🙂
Should I make my temporary visit to Scotland permanent I wonder?
If you can get the passport when it is issued
As I write, Gove has said he won’t resign, so it seems at least one of the Brexiter ******** is prepared to stay in the Cabinet.
Otherwise, what can one say? That we’ll have to rely on the rest of the EU to save us from ourselves by extending Article 50? Yes, possibly, but what irony eh! Having to be saved by the EU from national disaster. They’ll be in total control of the situation. Never has the dishonest, stupid Brexiter slogan of take back control looked more ludicrous.
Civil disorder from the more fanatical Leavers? I doubt it, this is mostly typical Leaver ‘bullshit and bluster’; making empty threats and howling into the wind when reality intrudes (again) on their silly fantasies. But if they do, there’s always those water cannon purchased by a certain B Johnson……..!
Caroline Lucas for PM? Well, if that ever happened, it will prove the truth of the ‘every cloud has a silver lining’ saying.
Lastly, an independent Scotland as part of the Brexit fallout? Quite possibly, and what sane, rational Englishman could blame the Scots if that’s what they vote for? Certainly not me.
It is worth reading this Brexit report in order to get some sort of understanding what has not been achieved. In other words many legal loopholes have been left open for EU control to be maintained, should those in control choose to do so.
https://brexitcentral.com/nasty-surprises-smallprint-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/
We will still be in the EU
The problem is we have no say
Much better to stay then since leaving makes not one iota of sense
I will second that.
P.S. Richard – can I thank you for letting me know about the UN Rapporteur’s visit to the UK – I passed the details of the impending visit onto my local Council and as a result they were able to make a submission.
Here is the Guardians report this morning:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says
Good work by you, and the Rapporteur
I hope you are as accurate as you were in 2016. I could cope with Caroline Lucas and Dominic Grieve running the country.
I must admit I came to your blog today to rant. I despair that our present parliamentary systems will produce anything but chaos so I am with you on reforms.
If I had half a chance to hang onto the notion that I am a European by emigrating I would be off like a shot. I’ve had it with this country.
The Brexit vote was split, the Tory party is split, the Labour party is fractured. I see no leadership, democracy only seems to offer a choice between a rock and a hard place. Why can’t we compromise based on what seems to offer the best solution instead of being driven by outmoded party political considerations and the lust for power at all cost.
And in the meantime, in the face of this patent incompetence, I still have to get up each day and earn a crust, and support my family. Do politicians really make a contribution or are they the lack of icing on the cake?
Rant over. I have a set of accounts to complete and three tax returns today. I will resist watching the news…
Keep doing what you are doing Richard.
Maybe we are not giving May the credit she deserves? She was after all a Remainer. Despite the rhetoric since “Brexit means Brexit”, etc., perhaps her plan all along has been to keep the UK so close to the EU that we can step back into it at any time?
Just say her deal gets through Parliament – it seems highly unlikely at the moment I know, but bear with me. We go into this heavily EU-aligned transition and a couple of years down the line the technology simply doesn’t exist to prevent the hard border between the Irelands. The EU won’t break the backstop even if the UK wants to. What honestly happens then? There will need to be a political solution to determine where we go from there. There will be another referendum, and I can only see two legal options – 1) Stay in the backstop until the technology is available (however long that takes); or 2) Seek re-admittance to the EU.
The latter would win, I feel sure (sadly it will be on slightly weaker terms than now as we won’t get our rebate back), but we’d get back in easily as the divergence since March 2019 will be low. Unless there is a genuine path to a 2ndEURef right NOW, my hunch is for Remainers to get behind May. In the long run, it is the least harmful and gives us a route back in.
I just throw it out there as an idea,
Noted
But too risky for now….
I think it’s over. May and the EU between them have created a deal, one they insist they’ll not be renegotiating, so bad it’s alienated everyone, from Brexiteers to the DUP to EU citizens living here, to Labour. May has publicly said it’s that deal (which no-one wants) or it’s no deal (which no-one informed wants bar the swivel-eyed right-wing faction) or it’s no Brexit at all. The very next day, there’s Tusk openly declaring that changing our mind and walking away from Brexit is fine with the EU. Well, of course it is; they don’t want Bannon poised on their doorstep, which is what they’d get if the Chicago Brexiteer faction has their way. Then we have Merkel stoutly declaring that’s the only deal going and it’s non-negotiable. The EU want an end to this before any more harm is done. They won’t be concerned by rioting here; they won’t have to deal with it. May will no doubt be rewarded with some plum job in Brussels. I think the endgame here has been decided, all that’s left now is to watch the game play out.
I think your assessment of the situation is very fair, and your predictions…well, anything goes these days, but they seem plausible.
The EU have their May elections to prepare, it’s their priority.
Brexit is a huge distraction, and a costly precedent for them.
Seen from the EU, Brexit is not the overwhelming issue it is here.
It gets mentioned of course, when there’s a crisis like just now, but not daily.
Like with Catalonia, but on a totally different scale, the EU will not facilitate a split in any way. I really do not see them renegotiating anything major, even if they do allow A50 extension.
As Barnier cheekily said :Backstop means Backstop.
They must not be seen to weaken strong Central States…so long as those States stay within the EU.
But if Scotland decides to leave a weakened State, one that has voted to leave the EU, then they’ll do all they can to accommodate that.
It would be a way of saying to the rest of the EU States that they risk national splits in the same way if they move away from the EU.
They’d use it as a deterrent. Scotland would provide them with a shield, effectively.
There is so much civil unrest and uncertainty in the Founding Countries that their respective governments have to be extra careful not to be seen to give any leeway to separatists.
France has both extremes (left & right) stirring the streets…again…as I write.
They won’t allow Le Pen’s ally, Bannon, to increase his influence over the ideological and mediatic warfare. Macron’s brand of Neo-liberalism has to be defended, there and in the EU.
Merkel is fighting for her last days in a shaky government, with neo-Nazis at the door mainly, but not only, in former East Germany. Brexit is not in her thoughts.
As for Italy…well, it’s Italy, governments come and go, usually every six months or so, so we’ll see how long this one lasts, but it has shown great potential for ‘disturbance’, if not separation, at EU level already.
How long will Juncker and Macron hold the fort?
Basically, the fort should be taken by over by different ideas, if not ideals, able to offer what Europe was realistically meant to be: a trading block of nations defending workers’ rights, human rights, the environment, and peace. Above all else.
All I can say Bill is that you are right – we have to keep watching. We are ‘in the moment’ so to speak.
As I watch the Tory Civil War unfold, my fervent hope is that they’ll make themselves unelectable for decades. Another is that I’ll get to witness their demise from another, entirely separate and independent country to the north of Hadrian’s Wall.
From what I was hearing in Wales last week, that country will be following Scotland – probably about fifteen to twenty years later, but the impetus is already building.
Even English immigrants were saying this. While the Welsh speakers were paraphrasing ‘Men of Harlech.’
I love the bit that says “Who will lead that Coalition? Caroline Lucas, most likely.”
She would 100% get my vote every time as the only person who ever talks any real sense about the bigger picture and real threats to our world…..