The Guardian has noted that:
The west's leading economic thinktank has warned that the expansion in the global economy may have peaked after cutting its growth forecasts for an array of rich and developing countries.
In its latest update on the health of the world economy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said the outlook for both 2018 and 2019 was less good than it had predicted in May.
I expect the OECD is right. Trade wars, Brexit, the impact of increasing dollar interest rates on emerging markets, an impending debt crisis and an absence of leadership to deal with it all suggest to me that they are being optimistic in simply thinking we'll just fall back a bit. None of the portents look at all good in reality.
But still the financial markets march on, apparently disconnected from the reality of the actual economy to which they have only the very loosest of relationships. Until, that is, the readjustment arrives.
And this time the prospect of anything positive coming out of that readjustment programme looks remote precisely because last time most sleep-walked into the crisis. This time we have no such excuse.
The trade wars are deliberate.
So too is Brexit.
As are inappropriate interest rate rises.
And a debt boom.
These were made by the political leaderships who will be in office when readjustment might be needed.
And that's the real cause for concern.
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Once again I agree with your frank and honest analysis.
I sometimes wonder, and am wondering now, prompted by your gloomy observations which seem to me to be well justified, just what a grandly titled ‘Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’ actually does to further the aims in that title.
Not a lot, would be my guess. Yet the Guardian refers to this as the ‘west’s leading economic thinktank’.
What are they thinking about ?
Economics
Not always the right way
Perversely – if we get a no deal on BREXIT and then increased activity from the US (or whoever else we get into bed with after BREXIT) they will expand their economy into ours (the NHS sector and food sectors for example). We might therefore see increased profits in the US which then might be recorded at the OECD level as some form of growth globally depending on where it is recorded.
The trouble is of course is that the cost to the UK in terms of the quality of what it gets could be enormous, game changing and hard to stop.
Pilgrim Slight Return says:
“Perversely — if we get a no deal on BREXIT and then increased activity from the US……
…… the cost to the UK in terms of the quality of what it gets could be enormous, game changing and hard to stop. ”
Quite so, Pilgrim. The covert privatisation of the NHS wehich has occurred so far is well under most people’s radar it seems. Given Theresa May’s flat refusal when asked, to rule out the NHS being on the table in trade talks with the US we do well to fear the fallout from Brexit.
The narrative will be the standard form….’the NHS is struggling to meet demand…we ‘can’t afford’ it….it needs private sector investment….etc.
It isn’t even subtle.
Take away the CAP and Food and Agriculture will be wide open. A Westminster government will not be able to ‘afford’ to match EU support to farmers so……
Ah well. They do say we get the government we deserve.