I am, I know, considered pessimistic with regard to the economy. But this, I think, is significant:
Of course there are issues with diesel cars.
And maybe people are delaying buying petrol cars because they are waiting to see what happens with hybrid technology.
But there are other possible reasons as well. People may have just rumbled you do not need to have a new registration plate to be a valid human being.
Or they may simply not be willing to take risk right now.
What is, I think, indisputable is that there are very clear patterns in here matched to economic mood (with the 2010 slight 'peak' matched to the 'cash for clunkers' scheme). Even allowing for the change in tax rules a year ago this decline looks to be, whatever the reason, significant and this reality is being seen in other data as well, which also suggests a loss of consumer confidence. That reality is that Brexit has put the UK in another economic place, and using conventional measures that does not look to be as good a one as it was before.
I stress, it may be we need to change our measures: GDP is not a virtue. Nor are new cars and even all concumption a good thing in themselves. But if we are going to consume less we do need to think what happens as a consequence. The ramifications are big. And no one is discussing them seriously as yet if a new era has arrived without anyone noticing.
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“And maybe people are delaying buying petrol cars ”
No.
According to the SMMT – “Demand for diesel vehicles fell 37%, but demand for petrol was flat and that for alternative fuel models rose 5.7%”
There’s no maybe about it.
Kenneth Ash says:
““And maybe people are delaying buying petrol cars ””
“No.
According to the SMMT — “Demand for diesel vehicles fell 37%, but demand for petrol was flat and that for alternative fuel models rose 5.7%”
There’s no maybe about it.”
That ‘no’ might be ‘yes’ though. If the drop in diesel sales has fallen 37% and yet petrol sales are flat that’s a sizeable hit.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding your point.
Like you I’m pessimistic – at least in the medium term (35-50 years). Weaning society off growth addiction is akin to Class A drug rehab. The Neo-lib 1% are the dealers, who pocket so much wealth there’s no logical reason for them to change. Regrettably change will be forced via seriously unwelcome circumstances affecting the 1st world, e.g. environmental catastrophes (major water shortages, floodings, bird flu’ pandemic, etc.), war, another GFC resulting in mass unemployment and total collapse of the financial sector. The trouble is if you mention such possible outcomes you’re labelled a prophet of doom. Nobody – at least nobody in any government – seems to want to face up to the reality.
The sociopaths currently running the show will be quite happy to bring everyone else down with them. In the event of any significant mass peaceful protests the military will be called out in a nano-second, with socially destructive civil war as a result. If it comes to such a crisis, the army will play a critical role. There’s always a remote possibility the generals would side with the people – opening the door for change – but not necessarily for the better – as experienced in many other nations.
To avoid a doomsday scenario, governments will have to introduce the radical solutions to these inevitable future global problems, solutions that have been well articulated for the past 40 years by academics, pressure groups, NGOs, alt media journalists, et al., and continue to be via the invaluable work that people such yourself contribute on a daily basis.
Since ignorance is no longer a valid excuse, one can only assume that continuing to pursue the same policies, while tinkering at the edges to placate voters, is a criminal act against the people these governments were elected (by some) to represent. Viewed objectively & logically it’s difficult to reach any other conclusion. It’s a race against time to save the planet and any prospect of a more civilised global society.
http://www.ehn.org/capitalism-and-our-environmental-collapse-2521833465.html
Well, that was another cheerful diatribe. I need a strong dose of Fair Trade, organic, single estate, Guatemalan acrylamide 🙂
Enjoy!
I tend to go for Columbian
You beat me to the ‘enjoy’.
But I’ll drink to that.
Mnd you the Sun is definitely over the yardarm here. This one from S Africa for a change.
If you want further confirmation of your assertion…
You may have noticed the BDO High Street Sales Tracker out today for March 18 showing like for like sales down 10.1% from last year (excluding non-stores). Though to be fair the figures haven’t looked good since 2014.
https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/high-street-sales-tracker/home (download March report)
Ken M says:
“…If you want further confirmation of your assertion… ” [concerning poor sales figures]
I gather we’re blaming the ‘Russian’ weather. The ‘Beast from the East’.
So that’s alright then.
Tax last year tax changes caused people to reduce buying new cars. The second hand market is going very well.
That is not the explanation – although it may be a factor
Some German car companies are selling a lot of nearly new second hand cars, still on finance, but with out the tax issues. The finance companies of Volkswagen and Mercedes are still doing very well.
Luke, you seem to know something about the vehicle market. Are small commercial vehicles getting in to Hybrids and alternative fuels?
Or is ‘White van man’ still stuck with diesel ?