You can make a binding promise that there will be regulatory convergence in Ireland.
And you can promise no border in the Irish Sea to the DUP.
As you can also promise to leave the customs union to the people of the UK.
But in the process you guarantee three things.
First you are guaranteed to look like a fool because the three are incompatible.
Second, you are guaranteed to break your promise to someone as a result, and you can be sure they will be annoyed.
Third, you can guarantee that the person to whom you made the binding promise will pull rank and say you must honour the commitment. The EU did that on the issue of the Irish border yesterday. They were right to do so.
May has made many foolish and expedient promises in the short time she has been in office. Ireland is now calling her out.
What happens now? I wish I knew. But sometime soon this is going to be very ugly. There is no political way around that.
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The withdrawal agreement is not due to go for ratification until October, so I expect they will simply try and kick the can down the road until then.
And that’s when it will get ugly
As you say, it’s an impossible position.
As an Irishman living in England, it’s clear its time for the UK to just leave, no deal, no transition. No Ireland border on the UK side. If the EU wants to tell the Republic side of the border is to be controlled, the UK should support the Republic against it. Time to get real and do what’s best for the UK and the Republic.
You may not have noticed that Ireland is in the EU
It does not want a border with the EU
So it will have to have a border with the UK
Please don’t contribute nonsense
“So it will have to have a border with the UK”
I agree, I don’t see how that’s a UK problem. If the EU wants to impose that on RoI, then that just proves the point.
Yes, it proves that we broke our word
As I understand it, under WTO rules the UK won’t be allowed to discriminate. If there isn’t a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, then the UK can’t have a hard border with anyone else either.
(Remaining in the EFTA/EEA or customs union apparently gets around this issue, but our wonderful government ruled that out almost from day one.)
🙂
A 6 years old boy as B Johnson should understand your demonstration
The comments on the Telegraph website are already there. Quislings, traitors etc
“What happens now?”
Well I can’t be sure of course but the ‘promises’ that were made to the EU and the DUP are at odds with that assurances that were given to the people of the UK.
So:
1. The commitments that were given to EU and DUP were formal and seemingly firm. The assurance that was given to the people of the UK was not (not really).
2. The EU and DUP on the whole expect those commitments to be fulfilled whereas at least half of the people in the UK would rather stay in the customs union anyway. The other half have no immediate clout.
3. The EU and DUP do have real and immediate clout and if promises are not honoured, they will use it.
Therefore I expect that the UK will effectively remain in the customs union, probably under the formal name of some ‘other’ agreement that will make little or no difference to the current arrangement.
I would also assume that the PM and Tories close to the PM knew that when they made those arrangements with the EU and with the DUP, or so one would imagine.
We’ll see.
We’ll see.
Indeed, we will
As you say Marco, who knows? If this government can’t have it’s cake and eat it, i.e attain the impossible, what is it going to do? Declare war on the EU?
Wooooooo wooooooo, wooooooo woo. The lunatics are truly in charge of the asylum.
Sections 49 and 50 of the _joint_ report that was jointly agreed in December are version curious, they suggest that by default we in effect remain tied to the EU, but presumably not members, this is reflected in the draft agreement revealed this week which May now says she will not sign upto! She was specifically asked about these arrangements (at the liaison committee) and described it as her “default default” position which she didn’t want to focus on as that wasn’t what they were aiming for. Barnier was also asked about this at the briefing after the joint report was delivered and he said that it was not the cause that by default we remain as we have chosen to leave.
So the puzzle is, if to preserve North South cooperation you “maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union …, now or in the future” and “ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom” , what does that mean other than that the UK as a whole will “maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union …, now or in the future” ?
49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom’s intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland’s businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.
The UK agreed
Now the EU is saying deliver
How can people squeal?
If the UK becomes a free trade area and charges no tariffs at all to goods or services, the question of borders and customs checks is no longer a UK problem. It becomes an EU question on how to manage any border.
That’s the way forward.
With respect, have you no awareness of the fact that in December we agreed we would make sure there was no border in Ireland? And we knew that without a customs union and maybe single market there would need to be one?
Do you really think the UK’s word is now that worthless?
Is that how you want to trade in the future?
What on earth are you talking about? The UK (or rather that part of it that wants to leave the EU) is about to leave the EU, which is free trade area without customs controls, to become a third country.
Therefore, like all the other countries which border the EU, it will have customs controls and border posts. As NI is part of the UK, and it shares a land border with the RoI which is in the EU, both the UK, and Ireland, will have responsibility for building and controlling the border posts.
If there is to be no such border between NI and the RoI, NI will have to remain in the customs union and SM. So either the whole of the UK remains in the customs union and SM, or, as the EU has suggested, the border between the EU (which would effectively include NI for trade purposes) and the now non EU UK mainland, shifts to the Irish Sea.
That’s it. Fact. Logic. Truth. Reality. To make an analogy Gareth, you can’t get the benefit of drinking ten pints of real ale without a hangover. You can’t get the cardiovascular benefits of swimming 50 lengths of your local pool without getting wet.
You can’t be outside the SM and customs union and not have border controls. Got that?
A little harsh SOTD
But fair
This appears to be a remain, metropolitan blog.
I apologise if you didn’t think further than a few sentences, but those of us who are in the private sector and run businesses have more important things to do during the day such as increasing our productivity.
So…what I was suggesting is making the the UK complete world free trade zone on the door step of the EU and Ireland can have a bilateral trade agreement with the UK should they wish, if not they (the EU) need to make the hard border we don’t want or need.
Salut.
Pardon?
How absurd!
a) I have run many real businesses
b) I suspect quite a lot commenting are retired
c) The ‘metropolitan’ idea is interesting. Have you ver been to Ely?
d) You’re making up the rules of world trade
e) That’s not metropolitan: that’s just ignorant
Richard
I’m not sure I was clear:
We NEED to ignore wto rules (as many do)
No inbound tariffs
To answer (since you seem interested in my situation): yes I own a company that employs 150 people and we turnover €20m in Europe. Even with wto rules a 6% tariff is easier than an a 17% devaluation!!
My question to you: have you ever run a company larger than you plus one?
I know Ely well as I live in BSE and beat you regularly in rugby.
As a hard outer (even though I shouldn’t be according to surveys), maybe we disagree too much for me to comment here.
G
I really hope you realise how much admin your are going to be doing when we’re out
I think you may well rue the day you thought this wise
And as for finding staff….good luck
There was showing something in the Sun ( I saw it on facebook) suggesting that ‘released’ from EU tariffs, lots of things would be cheaper.
The problem is that cheap imports would impact on British businesses and there is no assurance that the other countries would reciprocate.
The other problem is that of the most favoured nation clause of the WTO. If a concession is offered to one it has to be offered to all-unless it’s part of a free trade deal. Trying to do that with dozens of countries would be time consuming and that is something we don’t have.
Spot on
If we become a free trade area and charge no tariffs on goods or services we
lose our leverage on trade negotiations
kill our balance of trade
kill our own industries
can’t afford to import anything anyway
great plan
Gareth – you’d be surprised how many people here have spent their lives in Business. Always a risk when you play the man and not the ball
The CBI, IoD, BCB, SMMT – I could go on – all disagree with you. Are they all just ‘metropolitan liberals who have never run a business’? (That does read a bit like a line copied from the Daily Telegraph)
Looking at those businessmen who have come out in favour of leaving the EU, they tend to fall into a number categories:
– those who expect to profit through financial speculation in the resulting volatility. Rees Mogg and the hedge funds. Also includes those avoiding tax who want to avoid imminent EU laws
– those who want to see reduced standards and regulation, such as environment, employment, product quality, safety.
– those who Just have long held deep political views or prejudices such as Bamford at JCB.
– the plain ignorant such as Tim Martin or Wetherspoons or Harry Hall the Kent fruit man who had not realised that their businesses will be stuffed. Even when it was blindingly obvious. Fisherman and farmers are starting to wake up too
I’m wondering which category you might fall into? And what it is that you know that they don’t?
The Irish border issue is complex, there is no issue with legitimate trade! The Irish issue is with the possibility of the State being destabilised by smuggling.
In the 80’s 25,000 UK troops & 8,500 police couldn’t police the border, the UK removed it’s forward frontier posts to favor towns. The UK side was referred to as the world’s largest open prison after Palestine, with border watchtowers & permanent army checkpoints. Europe’s largest helicopter base was in Bessbrook!
As a result from Flagstaff to Middletown, the line where most illicit movement of goods took place was abandoned by HMG. Tax losses threatened to destabilise the RoI govt. In the 80’s the Irish revenue, with armed police support on request from HMG physically removed vehicles & product.
HMG allowed building & buildings to traverse the border!
Edwina Currie recently told Irish radio that increased smuggling could be expected!
Johnson’s proposals cannot work on any economic basis.
The Irish government appears reasonable by comparison – and on an incidental point, NI citizens (including DUP) will retain all EU citizen rights post Brexit!
May on Friday needs a teleological description of options A & B. Otherwise admit that the December agreement was just fat to get trading talks started (& have nothing to show fit three last three months.
Somebody mentioned smuggling – that’s where Jersey, Guernsey and the IOM come in – oh and Gibraltar too.
Where should the boundaries for these little places be put?
Stay as they are?… and who might police them in future?
You want us to provide a border for you?
Why?
Oh, and unless Gib is solved there is no deal….
What – more ugly than it has been?!
I can believe it, I can believe it.
Last night on channel 4 News, Rees-Mogg told the nation that Corbyn voted against the Good Friday Agreement. Channel 4 did some fact checking and later corrected that lie. Corbyn had not.
But that lie has been said and heard now just like all the other lies we’ve been told by the BREXITERS. Ugly? Oh yes. Uglier? I think so. But it will be the BREXITERS who will get nastier and nastier.
BTW – I thought that John Major on Channel 4 last night was awesome. I never thought I’d say that of him. But as I’ve said – there is nothing normal about the situation we are in right now.
It is bizarre that Major seems to be so good when I still can only really think of him in underpants
I do not forget he led a useless government though
Although competent compared to the current one
And Rees-Mogg is just toxic
Major knows a thing or two about fighting the Europhobes (they long ago stopped being Eurosceptics). He spent his time in office being stabbed in the back by them, and overall won that fight. Unlike Cameron. Also his background is a stark contrast to the Moggs, Johnsons and Camerons.
I might not agree with much of his politics but he sticks out as one of the few apparently human politicians. Unlike the Maybot…
Tony Blair on Today R4 this morning hit the nail on the head:-
“Immigration is the main issue throughout Europe” and the EU will need to address this
Shame they didn’t indulge David Cameron more when he visited to re negotiate freedom of movement before returning empty handed and then declared the Brexit vote
also a shame the Coalition and last Labour Govt. didn’t apply the rules which do exist on EU migrants and which are followed in some countries. They limit the access to benefits and that issue was exploited by the tabloids to whip up anti-immigrant feeling -I think for a wider agenda.
Agreed
One wonders if those rules and regulations that already exist, were suddenly announced as though they were new, whether the public would shift its views. A mixture of incompetence by Cameron and dishonesty by others in both major parties means that most [people seem to be unaware of the limits that are already available.
There’s also little distinction between immigration within Europe, and immigration from outside – two very different problems that have been conflated. As people here may well know, immigration from outside Europe to UK continues unabated. When India insists on more visas for indian migrants, those who voted for less migrants are going to be rather disappointed.
Without the 18 Northern Irish constituencies a majority in the smaller 632 seat Westminster Parliament resulting is 317.
Maybe May is not as daft as she seems?
Gareth Davies, your views are those of a fanatic, and have little to do with logic or reason. I see you’re coming out with the Patrick Minford nonsense about making Britain a complete free trade zone, with no tariffs on imports, even if other countries put tariffs on our exports to them. In that case, in the short term the UK is overwhelmed by a flood of cheap, frequently low quality goods and food which will destroy UK agriculture and industry, but not be able to freely export to other countries because we haven’t agreed proper free trade agreements with them. Mad.
Then you say we can ignore WTO rules. Really? The UK can just completely ignore international laws and regulations governing trade? Wow, I never realised we were so powerful we can just tell the entire rest of the planet to get lost. Who the hell would trust the UK government in future if it behaved in such a fashion? We’ll be reduced to the status of an international pariah, like N Korea.
This nationalist arrogance, combined with a blind belief in free markets, is behind the increasingly deranged rhetoric of the Brexiters. Unfortunately, it completely ignores reality.
Which is why they insist we can have ‘frictionless’ trade with the EU, but not be in it. Be out of the EU, but not have a border between NI and Eire. And then when the EU tells them that what they want is impossible, they scream blue murder and insist that the the EU is punishing the UK, or just playing hardball etc etc, etc.
Gareth, you and the other ‘hard outers’ as you admit yourself to be, are crazy.