A few days off normal work provide new perspective. Or at least, the refresh old ones by providing the room for a new angle.
Over the last week I have had my focus on Oxfam and related issues. But that has not meant I have ignored other issues. Like Brexit. And on that I realise I am quite genuinely anxious. I mean by that the sort of anxiety that can actually induce real, physical symptoms that are a manifestation of worry.
Almost a year after Article 50 was triggered, and 20 months after the country voted to leave the EU (whatever that means) the reality is many fold.
First, it is clear that we have no idea what we voted for.
Second, we have no idea what to do about whatever we might have voted for.
Third, as a consequence we have made almost no net effective progress towards achieving anything at all.
Fourth, we have upset an almighty lot of people as a consequence, with some, like the Irish, having very good reason for that.
Fifth, it would seem we have won no new friends, at all.
Sixth, the UK's two leading political parties have both looked incompetent on this issue.
Seventh, whatever might happen next March is something we are hopelessly unprepared for.
Eighth, of course it is possible that this will not matter. Except in a world of regulation, which is what this is all about, that seems to be exceptionally unlikely to the point that relying on this being the case would be very unwise.
In other words, it is very apparent that decisions need to be taken and yet no one seems to have the slightest idea what to make decisions upon because no one has the slightest clue what outcome is really desired, and when.
Of course I simplify just a little, but only a very little. When we cannot even be sure whether there will be a transition and whether there will be customs borders the scale of paralysis we face is quite staggering.
And in that case my anxiety is not based on the long term consequences of Brexit. In the long term most things can be managed. It's the short term that worries me.
In a highly complex, rule based, system the smallest of unforeseen and unplanned changes can have great significance. And we are looking at massive unplanned change. Of course that means things will go wrong. They are simply bound to.
And it remains my great fear that this will have short term impact. In particular if, as is likely unless some urgent action to prevent borders is taken, there is massive customs clearance chaos as a result of a lack of preparedness then supply lines for business will be extended and business insolvencies will simply flow one after the other as cash flows collapse in that situation.
Should I be worried? Yes, because I see this risk as real.
Should I be anxious about it? Probably not, because there is almost nothing I can do about it. But then, we all know those are the hardest problems to deal with. We're inexorably moving towards Brexit chaos and no one seems to be doing anything about it. I wish I knew why.
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An apposite quote I came across looking at something completely different:
“The members of the Long Parliament were in agreement over what they would not have but it was a different matter when it came to determining what they would have.”
R J Acheson: Radical Puritans in England 1550-1660
🙂
Relax, nothing is under control! (Zen proverb) 😉
I like it John.
But, my problem is that I have family and I feel for them. If it was only me I could quite happily accept that.
“We’re inexorably moving towards Brexit chaos and no one seems to be doing anything about it. I wish I knew why.”
Could it be that disorder, of a massive scale, is what is desired? The old question “Cui Bono?” may provide answers.
It is telling that both Dublin Port and Rotterdam are putting a lot of preparation in preparing for a hard Brexit, yet near nothing is happening in the UK.
With respect to Northern Ireland the situation seems to be deteriorating with the DUP back in “No Surrender” mode on the Irish Language Act, which has been UK policy since the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) and the Saint Andrews Agreement. The Nationalist community has waited 20 years for what they consider to be some form of parity of esteem and are even more disgusted than usual by the DUP and are looking south for leadership. The DUP as usual are masters of tactics but have no overall strategy.
Owen Paterson the former NI Secretary is now stating that the GFA has outlived its usefulness; it will be interesting to see how May reacts.
The mood in Ireland is not good as indeed is the mood on the continent. The UK government is mistrusted and considered amateurish and blagging.
Sean
You know this all better than I do but I share all your concerns
As for Paterson – a deeply worrying man
I am in Ireland soon and will want to gauge this a little more. Right now all my contacts seem to be saying as you do – that the mood is not at all good
And the preparations for a hard Brexit need to proceed apace because that is what looks to be likely
Are you thinking hard brexit is most likely pre or post transition?
I am beginning to doubt that there will be a transition
Hard Brexit looks pretty much baked in now IMHO.
The assumption seems to be that due to the chaos barriers will be lifted … they just won’t be.
I appreciate that being an economist you want to concentrate on the financial consequences of Brexit.
The vote to leave the EU was not about this but about taking back control of our own political destiny and to separate ourselves form the corruption and unwanted culture travelling across the channel. The financial consequences are certainly important as are the security issues and many other matters affecting our everyday life.
I have yet to hear contributions as to how effective a future UK Parliament will be in achieving the electorate’s wishes which might form a diversion away from the apparent anxiety if not depression that is creeping into your thoughts. A poorer financial outcome in the short term does not negate the decision to leave the EU if the population feel that their political representatives can make the decisions that will in the long run identify those issues that affect the well being of UK citizens and not the rest of the EU.
So what are those decisions that might be different?
And what might they be on?
I am a political economist
And have been engaged with politicians for nigh on 40 years and I am not aware of what changes as a result of Brexit in this regard
It’s not even migration – where we could have been doing things very differently for a Kong time
So if migration and economics are not what this is all about, what is?
“The vote to leave the EU was not about this but about taking back control of our own political destiny and to separate ourselves form the corruption and unwanted culture travelling across the channel”
What is the unwanted culture and corruption? Corruption is already rife in the UK and far from coming from the EU it seems to stem from us- tax haven abuse/ city of London money laundering / bribes to Saudi not investigated, non transparent funding of lobbying groups e.g. Global Warming Policy Organisation etc. etc
As for culture- give me european culture any day over American – we are already far too much like the 51st state for my liking.
For starters it would be useful if the EU could obtain a clean audit report on its financial activities which I understand, unless things has changed, has been absent for nearly a couple of decades.
No doubt we could both produce lists as long as your arm about corruption and culture on both sides of the argument. But I happen to be on my side not theirs. Multiculturalism has failed and indeed we are in danger of allowing certain groups, who cry for equality but really want cultural domination, effectively having a much bigger say than their numbers should allow.
You are showing that you do not appreciate the difference in audit between the state and private sectors
All large private sector organisations would also fail state style audits that look for fraud that is significant but not material
Private sector audit does not even look for fraud
It’s also not good at spotting failures in going concern
The rest of your comment is indicative of what I might fairly call prejudice
“if the population feel that their political representatives can make the decisions that will in the long run identify those issues that affect the well being of UK citizens and not the rest of the EU.”
I find it somewhat frustrating that the highly public faces of the Remain campaign aren’t putting this out there in plain English, but this is the heart of the misconception that is Brexit: we will, beyond question, be less free to do that than we are today. Sovereignty (if you want to use a blanket catch-all word for that ideal stated above) is the currency with which trade deals are bought. And every one we make will come with a bunch of conditions where we have to agree to someone else’s t&c’s. Chlorinated chicken from the USA is the clichéd example of the moment – but despite the dismissal of this very item in one of the recent ‘Brexit – it’s your shiny new future’ speeches, it’s telling that this was in fact the thing that the UK Government has received most lobbying on from American interests, largely because of its symbolic value for the States to be able to say to the EU ‘See? We told you your ban had no scientific basis, this proves it…’
Our double whammy of difficulty is that 1) we’re going to be desperate for trade deals, so a lot of the early negotiations will be difficult to differentiate from an instruction to ‘bend over and assume the position’ (the more so given our complete lack of experienced negotiators), and 2) every single deal we make will tie our hands in terms of freedom to make subsequent deals with other states and blocs with different and often contradictory requirements. So, for example, should it be the case that we DO accept chlorinated chicken, that will absolutely prevent us from forging any trade deal with the EU which includes (at the very least) chicken, and probably a much wider area of agricultural products. The fact remains that at present, we are able to bring considerable influence on EU’s trade policy decisions: afterwards,we will be far less in control than we were before, and the thing above all we won’t have is the EU’s punching power.
All of which pales besides the other very obvious problem with the opening statement: the UK government already has considerable latitude to “make the decisions that will in the long run identify those issues that affect the well being of UK citizens”, the EU notwithstanding, and simply chooses not to but to act in the interests of a very small but highly privileged section of society. The EU has been our main source of some measure of protection against that: we will be completely vulnerable to it without their influence. I’d suggest that anyone who believes post-Brexit UK will be a better place to live thereby, even ignoring the inevitable economic shocks, is living in cloud cuckoo land.
A comprehensive (and very wittily written) demolition of the lack of understanding of the realities of international trade on the part of Brexiteers can be found here: http://terryentoure.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/only-fools-and-trade-deals.html
(I’d recommend this blog for a very comprehensive series of expositions of the realities of international trade, and the total lack of understanding of them by those leading the process right now. You’ll have to dig back a bit, as he has latterly become somewhat defeated by the sheer weight of covering the same ground repeatedly, but in the year or so after the referendum, his stuff is absolute gold.)
I am worried too. I am italian and proeuropean. For my historic and personal experience there is no future for any european country acting by themselves. I hunderstand that my point of view hardly could be like the one of a briton because of the wide difference of our mindset and of ours countries but the leaving of UK gave me sadness . Europea is a working in progress as everithing else in the Life and each of us must work for his implementation from within not run away from the plaing court. Sorry for my poor English. Best regards
‘Poor English’ Quinto?
Your English is much better than my Italian ! I for one perfectly understand what you are saying.
Bravo!
You put, very eloquently, my own feelings on this entire mess. The hardest aspect is the feeling of helplessness as our punitive “leaders” drive us headlong over the cliff edge. I am sick to death of the constant blather about “we can’t tell you – it would reveal our negotiating position” when it is patently obvious that, (a) we do not have one, (b) the people driving this have absolutely zero understanding of the complexity of international “trade”, and (c) their idea of a “liberal” trade policy seems to be a totally deregulated free for all.
As for their view on employment regulation … welcome, Britain, to the American model of the employer having total autonomy, and all the “rights” with the employee expected to be grateful for being employed.
Re your penultimate sentence . Er……yes.
And ?
That very sentence seems seems to have shot the entire article’s own fox
Ivan sur3 you have a logic
I am not sure I follow it
“We’re inexorably moving towards Brexit chaos and no one seems to be doing anything about it. I wish I knew why.”
Nobody actually is prepared to articulate their vision of what Brexit is about and what we are heading for. In part this is probably because there is no plan – a plan could easily fall short of its desired outcomes so we have a default strategy. When it becomes obvious what we’re going to get the clever buggers will tell us that is what they intended.
Reason for anxiety ? I should bloody well cocoa.
It seems like a coup that’s been produced by the ‘Carry On’ team
Let us take as a given that Mrs May will end up getting us the worst possible deal with our European friends: I think this is what we all fear – and expect!
But we can console ourselves with the thought that we are a 1.5 trillion £ economy, with exports to the EU worth about 250 billion https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
So if our EU friends decide to impose say a 10% tariff on our exports to them, it would cost our exporters about 25 billion, and with any luck, their EU customers will end up paying at least some of it. On the other hand, our taxpayers would pay about 10 billion less to Brussels. Worst case, one smallish group of exporting Britons are a bit worse off, a largish group of every taxpaying Briton is a bit better off, but nobody will be very much better or worse off.
You are completely correct that the Irish border is a very serious political problem, but nothing else need lose us any sleep. And even there, we could return to the free movement of people and goods which obtained from 1922 until the advent of the Single Market. If Ireland wants anything different, then that is of course entirely up to them.
If I might say so, it takes a staggering degree of naiveté to believe that the world is that simple
Or that the Good Friday Agreement never happened
Or that the only issue with the EU is tax
When you say that people did not know what they were voting for I would call that the understatement of the year. Since the vote I have been asking people about their vote and about the EU and have been utterly appalled at their answers.
Several voted Leave based on issues that were ECHR not EU. They had no idea of the difference.
Several voted because of what they claimed was the undemocratic nature of the EU – those so called un-elected bureaucrats Nigel Farage and his ilk constantly referred to – but they had no idea how many there were or what function they performed.
They were astounded to learn that Commissioners did not vote on EU laws. In fact I could have made a fat profit from folks who accepted bets about facts on the EU. Instead I have chosen to get folks to look it up for themselves.
If the media and in particular the BBC was doing its job people would not be so ignorant.
The UK has never really taken Europe seriously though has it? And that feeling I think continues into the likely break. The consequences are not being taken seriously either.
Why? Because perhaps the psychology still at work from WW II is that ‘they’ (Europe) need us: We ( the UK) don’t need them.
Another view is that the ‘strategy’ is now to execute BREXIT in the hope that the penny drops as things go shite and we go back in ASAP (which is what I hope will happen to be honest).
I do wish this was not happening at all. But we have to face facts that BREXIT is mob rule I’m afraid and no one seems to want to confront this mob and its rather effective media.
As for the EU – certain issues – the ECB for example – have just helped the mob to get traction.
‘Not our finest moment -if and when it finally arrives!
Some people have a very clear idea of where we are going, or, at least, how to take advantage of Brexit. The Institute for Free Trade founded by Daniel Hannon (Guardian yesterday : Revealed; Rightwing groups plot to ditch EU safety standards in food and drugs) is planning a new US/UK trade deal in conjunction with the Cato Institute -founded by the Koch brothers -and the Heritage Foundation (which boasts two-thirds of its program has been adopted by the Trump administration).
We know what their priorities are. They are not ones which would I feel pretty sure, would get past the British electorate in a general election. But they could well slip past as a result of Brexit esp. if there is a ‘last minute rush’ of agreements to meet deadlines.
I expect many of those people do sincerely believe that ‘free trade’ will make more people better off than they would have otherwise have been. Equally I think the policies are pushed by many of them for their own gain regardless of the effect on others. The record speaks for itself.
Robert Reich, Clinton’s Sec. of Labor, has some interesting observations on the nature of modern trade deals. They are much more about investment, safeguarding patents and challenging domestic laws which might reduce their profits-whether environmental, safety or employment protection laws.
The Heritage Foundation and Cato Institute and Liam Fox’s Bridge have the resources and contacts to plan long term. They also have the power to influence the media to condition or divert the general population. I am not a fan of conspiracy theories but there are movements which are just below the surface of the media attention. At times it feels like a coup. Dramatic language but a huge shift in our political economy which we didn’t vote for and which will take much of the control a democratic society should exercise over the economy and laws, out of our hands.
@Ian Stevenson, your last para has been my conclusion recently. They want chaos AKA Shock doctrine so that irreversible change can be swept in under the guise of emergency rule.
As far as I am aware there are no plans nor preparation for border controls at Dover for example. Not even applications for planning permission for lorry parks (and we will need a good few hectares!) or recruitment & training for customs staff. I do begin to wonder if we will literally starve when the lorries are held up at ports.
Best get in a supply of tins I guess.
Yes, as should be obvious to anyone who looks at the principal backers of the Leave campaign, Brexit is essentially a con trick financed by an unsavoury collection of hard right anti-regulation millionaires and billionaires.
So is the total lack of preparedness deliberate, or the result of the mind boggling incompetence and arrogance of the current Conservative government?
We really are in the s*** due to these right wing b******* aren’t we?
I think it’s both.
Preparations are being made, only not, apparently, in the UK!
The Dutch are hiring the extra customs officials needed
https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.eu%2Farticle%2Fbrexit-netherlands-to-hire-750-extra-customs-officials-to-tackle%2F%3AFpvuhnAHut_-D1qxR3TETxusti0&cuid=2840114
Here in France, Customs Officer is a career ‘of the future’!
https://vocationservicepublic.fr/douanier-un-metier-d-avenir-grace-au-brexit
In Ireland, Dublin Port is applying for planning permission for the necessary infrastructure
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-port-to-build-customs-checks-ahead-of-expected-hard-brexit-1.3392194
& new ferries (and routes) are being delivered to bypass the land route (a.k.a. M20 lorry park)
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-could-lead-to-irish-hauliers-avoiding-uk-1.3386789
&
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/cork-port-holds-talks-over-routes-to-bypass-the-uk-due-to-brexit-35520179.html
and many more…
But in the UK?
Nothing….
https://briefingsforbrexit.com
It is worth following the arguments in here for some balance.
Hi Richard,
Good post on Brexit and the UK ‘fairy’ approach – if I wish hard enough it will all be OK. – on naked capitalism today. They include a link to UK Trade Policy Observatory paper – and a video explaining the problem of bilateral, multilateral, rules of origin problems which the government is currently waving a hand at.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/02/another-brexit-mess-grandfathering-existing-free-trade-agreements-looks-unlikely.html
Thanks
The more I think about this, the more I am convinced that the BREXIT mob in parliament are just the tip of the iceberg of something much bigger and malign and which lies further West than Ireland – the USA.
The US has to keep expanding its low regulation/extreme return economy abroad as its corporations basically suck the host country (USA) dry so the logical step is to establish a bridge head on the front door of Europe and it seems that the UK is to be it.
I expect the UK to become more Americanised as a result – I can see US agri-business buying up our farms and using lower welfare and safety standards; the NHS – well – it’s in danger there is no doubt about that – huge profits to be gouged out here.
But I am also curious about the suggestions of Russian involvement in all of this on the BREXIT side. Is this Russian retribution for what happened when the Wall came down? The desire for Russian domination of Europe?
As for Dover – I used to occasionally go out with my brother (based in Eire) who was a long distance inter continental lorry driver and I just cannot see how this is going to work post BREXIT. We might have to have more busier ports along the East Coast going all the way up to Newcastle as a result.
Irish – European traffic may run into trouble too at Holyhead and Fishguard. In fact jobs at these places could go if new routes around UK waters direct to Europe or through Scotland open up as result. And I bet the people working at these ports didn’t think they were voting to lose their jobs?
As usual I have two books on the go and one I’m reading is ‘Tragedy & Challenge’ by Tom Brown (2017, Matador) , a book that Bill Keegan recently mentioned. This book is about engineering in the UK and easy to read and very informative.
The author is very experienced, very credible and has worked in engineering in Germany too and even ended up at McKinsey alongside people like Tories Archie Norman and William Hague of whom he is very respectful.
But Brown is no Thatcherite and although he is critical of British unions (and I agree with his observations) he really gives an insiders view of how past and current business practice and Government policy has not helped engineering (making things).
On pages 109-119 (a sub chapter called ‘The BREXIT Disaster’) Brown gives a sober assessment of the situation facing engineering. And it is not just the uncertainties of BREXIT. His main worry is that modern politicians simply do not understand manufacturing in this finance driven world. And if this is the case, who are they to talk realistically about how post BREXIT trade deals will work?
I’d heartily recommend the book if only to realise just how complicated trade is and how TRULY unprepared we are for BREXIT.
We are going too fast, far too fast. I’m sure that those who wanted BREXIT at least expected it to be done properly? It does not look like it. Which adds credence to the fact that the beneficiaries of a BREXIT done badly are sadly in charge.
As for Labour, their stance should be a good BREXIT – not hard or soft but gradual. That in my view is what they should be selling if they are too scared to stop it.
Pretending to be all Alexandrian and treating our treaty with Europe like Alexander treated the Gordian Knot is just ignorant bravado.
A pretty fair list of the Rabbit hole the UK has jumped down.
The UK may not have a plan, but a substantial number of Scots do. Which is to dissolve the UK, apply to join EFTA and the EEA asap to mitigate the damage. Not yet a majority but it will come unless UK Brexit is cancelled. Which implies substantial investment in export ports and infrastructure route de suite