Edge
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Edge
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Tax Research UK Blog is written by Richard Murphy unless otherwise stated and published by Tax Research LLP under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License.
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You could very well be right.
And we’ve seen it all before.
There has to be a better way of running an economy than this.
Is there any evidence that UK companies are also buying back their stock, which presumably inflates values – https://www.ft.com/content/99000fda-5697-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2
It is rare compared to the USA
Clearly the danger is there but do you have any idea how far away the cliff edge is?
No
No one does for sure
But we’re walking towards it
Hmmm. Whence comes the trigger? Or, in the case of a cliff edge, the stumble?
Here’s a possibility: much has been said lately about inadvertent FTSE gains that come from declines in the value of the pound (a weak sterling helps the many overseas earners in the index as the relative value of foreign earnings rises).
So, given that the Brexit affect is and should be a one-off (Brexit can only happen once) the pound should eventually recover at some at some stage. If it does so decisively that would have the opposite effect on overseas earners in the index. Both they, and the index generally, would experience a sharp fall — and that little ‘shock’ could be enough to spark the panic that bursts this obvious bubble.
Most would assume that a UK collapse is more likely to be part of a global contagion that starts elsewhere. If we extend the abovementioned suggestion a bit further (merely as a thought experiment) the UK might even be source of the contagion rather than a by-stander.
This all just hypotheses of course but if does happen do remember that you saw it here first.
Reminds me of your posts mid naughties onwards. Violin ETF anyone. And we all know what happened to that bubble.
I was right then…
Exactly so, and you are again I’m afraid. It’s the “When” that is the (Insert currency of choice) 64,000 question. And we keep our purchasing power longer than the market can be wrong?
Gold and Sing Dollars and enough GBP to get by for me, and GBP in a bank for you.
Pity candidate Trump is not the president of the United States of America. He called it a big fat ugly bubble (correctly). But this other Trump says these new record highs well, it’s all down to him. Now that he owns it he has to take the fall as well.
What I should have pointed out along the lines of Richards posts from before the great crash, is that there will be a futures market in crypto currencies soon I read somewhere recently. I never knew you could take physic al delivery of something digital? What are they going to settle with: USD; Gold; chocolate coins? Sure sign we’re in a bubble.
Some amateur economo-philosophising.
Interesting how in the run up to the tech bubble and the financial crisis how valuations got so out of kilter. In particular the fact that presumably there needs to be an abundance of money washing around the system for that to happen (although conceivably it can also be caused by people being unwilling to relinquish assets and scarcity driving up the price). And if there is such an abundance of money, what does that say about the distribution of money around the system that that might happen?
Oh! We don’t have to worry about the cliff edge.
Just wait ’til you hear the bell ring. Just like last time. And every time.
Some people are saying this bull still has a long way to run. There’s still a lot of spare cash to absorb apparently. (If I had any of it it’s not where I’d be putting it.)