The chances that there will be another general ekection are very high. All sides of the political spectrum agree on that.
Some might think that they only issue in doubt is who will lead the Tories into it.
Others want to speculate on how far Labour's new found optimism can carry them.
I would like to deal with some facts. Economic facts. And the fact that it is very hard for a party that is delivering an economic downturn to ever win an election. And that this is precisely what the Tories are doing.
Take these things into account.
First, inflation has risen because of Brexit, and people know it.
Second, real wages are falling, and again people know it.
Third, house prices are falling, and people don't like it.
Fourth, austerity is continuing, and really beginning to hurt.
Fifth, credit is getting harder to find.
Sixth, job insecurity is growing.
Seventh, record stack markets rub in the fact that this is a two strand economy.
Add that all up and people now know that seven years of Tory rule have not put right the mess of 2008. And in that case the argument that this was all down to Labour sounds very, very hollow indeed.
Brexit over-rode economic reality for a year, but by the time the next election happens it will be apparent that Brexit will also offer no solution for any problem we face.
May hoped that by calling the election when she did the real impact of all these issues would not be fully apparent. But that will not be true next time, even if next time is as soon as October by which time the Tories won't have an economic leg left to stand on.
But, and I make the point very strongly, that does not mean that an alternative isn't needed because it very clearly is. But that's for anther blog.
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Good points. Only would add that while falling house prices would concern many voters, that they are inflated way above logic and affordability.
Agreed
But they still don’t like it
And the election is in the short term
There’s another way of looking at the election result and that was to clip the wings of the Tory right. What I mean is that the Tories wanted five years to get a hard Brexit but as Dave Davis as accepted this will have to change to a more open Brexit. This will not change the fact that if the economy goes into recession the Labour party must have an economic programme that rather than been seen as a free for all will be seen as a genuine way to rebuild the country.
If I may Brian, people use their home’s store of wealth for further borrowing against its value.
Your home is an asset (something to be used financially – collateral) as well as a good (something you use or ‘consume’).
If you are seeing the value of your home decrease against the borrowing you have against it, that can be very worrying. It also affects confidence in the wider economy which may see further reductions in economic turnover.
I’m not endorsing this way of living BTW – just trying to explain what I see.
I like the suggestion in this democracy of ours that an alternative is needed. It was probably accidental but it implies that choices are not desirable, but a single alternative is.
Are you trolling?
Or just wasting my time?
Richard, I applaud your positivity but it is absolutely essential that we do not fall into the same trap of complacency May did.
There is a monumental battle ahead to get the Corbyn project into government:
-There are still many in the party who (despite some superficial platitudes about the result) are deeply unhappy with the direction the party is heading under Corbyn’s stewardship. Unless Corbyn can really reunite the party, this will continue to be a major issue that is detrimental to Labour’s chances of electoral success.
-The Tory stance on Brexit will have to soften, likely into something resembling Labour’s own position on prioritising business/jobs over immigration. We should expect to lose the votes of people who voted Labour whilst holding their nose primarily because of the hard Brexit Tory position until now, and it is very likely seats like Kensington will be lost next time round as a consequence
-The Tory manifesto was a disaster and didn’t offer a single positive thing for anyone. It is inconceivable that the next will not include ‘retail’ offerings to attract important voter demographics like the old (and now the young too).
-It is also inconceivable that May will lead the Tories into another election campaign, and they will not call one until they have a candidate who does not suffer from the same inadequacies as her. Even if one is forced upon them because the DUP deal is unsustainable, their next leader can only be better than her.
-If the Tories are still inclined to push their downsizing parliament agenda (I recall some doubts about this last year) and have the numbers to get legislation through, the Tory boundary changes will affect up to 200 Labour seats, and will disproportionately hurt Labour
-The youth turnout is likely to have been unprecedented, and it is unclear whether they can be mobilised to that extent again. I am optimistic that there has been a ‘political awakening’ of the young, but even a small drop in turnout could result in seats like Canterbury being lost.
Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty to be optimistic about, but a Labour government is still a very long way away, and I suspect a majority is still almost out of the question. We had a remarkable result the other day, but an even more remarkable one, is going to be needed to secure an outright majority.
We should be reaching out to progressive allies now to talk about how we can work together to get rid of the Tories (tactical voting could have resulted in different outcomes in a handful of seats I can think of off the top of my head) because this has got to be the number one priority.
I agree with all that
But, and it is a big but, remember the Tories have their own divisions over Brexit, and they could be as big as any Labour could create. Indeed, as has been suggested here today, brexit could be as divisive as anything since the Corn Laws split the Tories in the nineteenth century.
The one thing about which I am confident is that the 600 seat Boundary Revision is dead in the water. It affects Tories as well as Labour, and the DUP are worried it tip the balance further to SF. No chance whatsoever of this happening in this Parliament. The numbers are quite simply not there for it.
I sincerely hope that is true
Yup, lots of difficult issues the Tories will have to deal with, but unless we robustly address the issues we face it won’t make a blind bit of difference, and even if we do robustly address them, it is going to be far from a walk in the park.
Particularly frustrating for me, and I think heads should roll for this, are:
-Kezia Dugdale actively encouraging the Tory vote in seats Labour were unlikely to win, in order to oust the SNP. If the 13 Scottish Tory gains had remained SNP, we’d be in Labour (minority) government territory now.
-If true, reports that Labour HQ ‘defunded’ candidates in marginal seats (both Tory and Labour held) and concentrated resources in safe Labour seats held by Blairites because they were expecting electoral wipeout. Again, if a less ultra defensive strategy had been pursued, we’d be in Labour (minority) government territory now.
James,
This idea that “there are still many in the party who (despite some superficial platitudes about the result) are deeply unhappy with the direction the party is heading under Corbyn’s stewardship.”
That is now dust that is being blown out to sea. “The increase in Labour’s vote share was the largest for any party between two general elections since 1945”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-hopes-to-remain-pm-as-voters-deliver-hung-parliament
In the realpolitik of party politics (any party) that sort of accomplishment is decisive and it delivers power. The ‘deeply unhappy’ now get to eat humble pie and find a way to digest it.
With this suggestion: “The youth turnout is likely to have been unprecedented, and it is unclear whether they can be mobilised to that extent again”. One could just as easily say that the genie is now out of the bottle and Labour’s experiment with the youth vote can now be refined and expanded.
The idea that seats like Kensington and Canterbury may be lost is offset by the fact that a lot of fairly secure Tory seats have now become marginals that can become Labour the next time around.
BBC analysis also found concluded that (against expectation) Labour gained more from the lost UKIP vote than the Tories. Which is interesting in itself but also quite encouraging when considering the next election.
Your point about alliance and coalition building is definitely right though. That is the future and the major party that does it best will have a clear advantage.
Yes, I agree with you James. Dugdale’s active encouragement of Labour to vote Tory was outrageous in terms of personal and political integrity and in the end, ironically cost Corbyn dearly. Dear God, did we ever think we would see the day? It just shows you how neo-liberalism is now a permanent feature in the psyche’s of so many. If only that young woman knew the meaning of progressive, but lets face it, in her lifetime she hasn’t had many role-models. Corbyn really needs to get rid of her but I suspect he’s too weak. Just think, were it not for Kezia, Labour could be in power now.
But before we put all of the blame on her, here are a few interesting statistics courtesy of Wings Over Scotland. https://wingsoverscotland.com/
The Scottish Liberal Democrats were all but wiped out in 2015 election but there are still places where they traditionally retain a strong presence here in Scotland. Lest anyone actually believe that the Tories are having a resurgence of popularity here, please be aware of the following tactical voting in last week’s election.
Argyll and Bute
Lib Dem vote: down 6000
Tory Vote up 8000
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Sellkirk
Lib Dem vote down 8000
Tory vote up 8000
Gordon
Lib dem vote down 13000
Tory Vote up 15000
Inverness Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Lib Dem Vote 12000
Tory Vote up 13000
North East Fife
Lib Dem vote static
Tory vote up by 3000
(There is VERY interesting commentary on this on Wings- The Cannon Fodder
https://wingsoverscotland.com/)
Ross Skye an Lochaber (formerly Charles Kennedy’s seat)
Lib Dem vote down by 7000
Tory vote up by 7000
(This is my own seat and I’m gad to report that SNPs Ian Blackford had a majority of about 6000)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Lib Dem vote down by 7000
Tory Vote up by 11,000
Unsurprisingly the LIB/Tory pact wasn’t a reciprocal deal.
There seem to be no seats — that is zero- where the Tory Vote fell to the benefit of the Lib Dems!
Plus ca change plus ca le meme chose!
The anti SNP vote here was heavily influenced by tactical voting though it wasn’t the whole story. We have to face facts. By and large it was a lack lustre campaign by SNP. We were out-maneuvered yes, but there is still a substantial support for independence here despite what you hear from the MSM. There are many factors at work and I wait with baited breath for the unfolding.
Someone said last night that the UK was having a political nervous breakdown. I love the analogy! I’d go further. I think the world at large is going through some major shadow issues. What most folk forget is that chaos almost always opens the way to reconstruction. The holotropic drive towards health and wholeness is innate. or as a famous philosopher once said “Everything is unfolding as it should” 🙂
Thanks Grace
And I am are that the interest in independence remains real – I have those who tell me so
I have personally spoken to people who have expressed support for Corbyn and his policies, and also agreeing that another couple of percent on income tax wouldn’t make much difference to their own personal finances. This sometimes is coming from people who also have supported Brexit and other “mainstream” ideas. Corbyn has for the time being captured a lot of folks imagination. As you say there are other forces in the wind that reinforce the vacuity of the Tories ideas and which Corbyn and the PLP must use to their advantage. The Right wing media though will get to work soon enough to discredit Corbyns achievement and spread their poison. Time is of the essence, I am at the same time quite exited and fearfull of the next few months.
Desp
Two per cent makes no difference if the government has improved incomes by two per cent by spending more
That’s the key point
Time is of the essence, but the Tories are ruthless when it comes to maintaining their grip on power and will not call an election unless they are very confident of winning it.
Following Thursday’s result, one expects they will err on the side of caution even more now.
The only hope of another election within the next 5 years is that the Tory-DUP alliance collapses or if May performs so badly that they need to go into damage limitation mode.
There are many more chances than that
By elections will erode even the tiny majority
Brexit is going to be worse than most people can imagine
And the DUP will not stick around
Also expect the Tories to implode
Five years is just not on the cards
Your logic makes sense but since when are elections decided on logic? Agreed there’s an emotional aspect of the reasons you give but it would be unwise for the Labour Party – and the other progressives – to expect the results of this GE automatically to tranlsate into victory at the next. The public mood seems to be unusually volatile at the moment. The Tories will fight tooth and claw, with every deceitful trick in the book, to prevent Corbyn from entering Downing Street. They should never be understimated.
On the other hand the Labour Party has clearly struck a chord with an increasing percentage of the electorate that it needs to consolidate and simultaneously reach out to the more sceptical ‘undecideds’ by giving them an authoritative assurance that their manifesto policies are indeed deliverable. Which always brings us back to the ‘Household Budget’ challenge. How will you pay for it? If they are to get more than just a working majority they will have to be more convincing on this one issue. So, to push for another GE within the next 12 months would be a gamble I wouldn’t want to take. But then they know more than I do – which is zilch.
I don’t expect anything
This stuff has to be repeated time, after time, after time now
It is comforting that the 13+ million who voted Tory did so only because of the lies and deceit of the Tories but the 12+ million who voted Labour did so because a cord was struck.
I am a bit confused Richard. You said you expect the Tories to implode but a post later you have said you now don’t expect anything. Are you aware of something in the background of which we are not?
I am confused
I do expect the Tories to implode
The only question is when
And I do believe in giving them a nudge to make it sooner rather then later
Not wishing to be a spoilsport here, but I have not forgotten that Corbyn whipped his MPs into the lobbies with May’s Tories to support Article 50. That can only have accelerated the charge to Hard, Cliff Edge, Car Crash Brexit. The truly appalling consequences of which for the UK become more apparent every day. The Rees Moggs of the Tories must have been over-joyed to get his support
I’m delighted at the election result but until I see a much more enlightened attitude towards the EU and economic policy (as Richard has pointed out), I shall reserve judgement. Whilst congratulating Corbyn on a great campaign and resilience in the face of the abuse he has received.
John McDonnell rather worryingly said Labour could not support staying in the Single Market today
What is he doing!!?
If this is a push for the Leave vote – is he not going to upset the Remain vote that voted in this election for Labour?
Labour has just got credibility. This is a sure way to lose it.
Defeat snapped out of the jaws of victory and all that.
John should be told to be quiet and go away and read about Green PQE for example.
One wonders what his rationale is. As it stands he sounds worryingly like the worst of the Brexiteers
It should have become apparent by now that McDonnell and Corbyn have a kind of good cop / bad cop routine, a classic political ‘point man’ technique.
McDonnell is the bad cop, the point man who raises the tough, out-there, worrying things that the leadership may be talking about and Jeremy offers the softer conciliatory reassurances that set people at rest.
In the meantime the point man’s suggestion has been raised and it is on the agenda whether it is seriously being considered or not.
OMG. Do you think he said it without having a quiet chat Jeremy? I’m really concerned that after the first flush of success the LP isn’t in any fit shape to face the electorate again for a while. ther are simply too many loose cannons. The tories are much btter at closing ranks when under serious threat because they know the sword of Damacles hangs over their individual heads. Having got the election result dramatically wrong I’d better not make any more predictions, but am tempted to say that unless JC can exert some super leadership skills – which don’t come naturally to him – this unexpected and well-deserved advantage could be squandered. Both parties are walking a tight-rope at the moment. The first to wobble might well determine the future of the country. Maybe that’s a bit over-dramatic but there’s a lot at stake over the course of the next few months.
PS – because of her increased majority it’s going to be difficult for Corbyn to side-line his old pal Diane Abbott, who will remain an easy target for her many detractors. I can’t think why she was appointed Shadow Home Secretary in the first place which seems a post she’s quite unsuited for. But what do I know? When things have quietened down a bit Corbyn should have a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle.
Once again apologies for silly typos. It’s getting late. I’m challenging you Richard for the title!
Never!
As you say, it is very hard for a party delivering an economic downturn to win an election. I recall almost every Western government in office for the 2007-08 crash lost the following election. So my main concern if Labour formed a government would be if the downturn bottomed out on their watch. You have said before that you think there is a good chance of another crash/recession within the next few years.
If the Tories / global economy set off a crash that came to fruition on Labour’s watch then the blame would be given to Corbyn’s “Marxist policies turning us into Venezuela”, which could lead to a big Tory win at the next election(s) and the discrediting of Corbyn’s, and your ideas.
It might be a good idea, if Labour win, to put in place policies which are designed to counteract a crash even before it happens.
If Labour do win in a few months or next year and a crash hasn’t happened but looks a possibility on the horizon, do you have any suggestions about how [A] they could prevent it, or at least protect the UK economy from it to the point where it would be big enough to discredit Labour, and [B], how if it did happen what they could do to protect their party and the left wing economics they and you are using from being given the blame?
Labour has to be prepared in advance
That was what PQE was always for
Plus, of course, the toxic internal politics of the Conservative Party.
Theresa May gained the leadership by shutting up and sitting still while idiotic mediocrities convinced the part that they were fools, and toxic to electoral success.
Re McDonnell and the single market, Barry Gardiner has restated this morning what Labour’s position is, based on the manifesto. He stressed that we should focus on the desired outcome of frictionless access to trading with the EU, whether that is via formal membership of the single market or some other agreement. The ends are more important than the means.
Sometimes it is helpful to reframe the debate to move it forward. Theresa May reduced all policy on Brexit to slogans, and membership of the single market has almost become a mantra, so talking about outcomes seems like a good idea.
The best I took from his interview was the realistic assessment that no one knows what we will get so rule nothing out
Dear Richard – Your headline could equally have been – Reasons why Labour can’t win the next election – because the main reason would be that so many voters still don’t trust Labour on the economy despite austerity and the downturns to-date and to come from Brexit.
However, this is not a criticism of what you are saying, more an agreement that outlining a credible economic strategy that foregrounds issues like the productivity-lag and how to reverse the gig-economy (using one side of the paper only) seems to me at least the huge priority – as Corbynism smells like a 70s remix rather than the approach you would seem to stand for – a realistic alternative that blows the myths of conservatism out of the water on the one hand, whilst avoiding the Santa approach of spending without any real strategy for economic growth on the other. I guess this is only positive trolling, but there it is…
I disagree with you
People clearly rejected the Tory manifesto and bought Labour’s
And the economy is weakening by the day
Austerity is not working and people get that
One thing that people have missed, is that the election extended the timing of the next election from 2020 to 2022.
These extra two years may help the tories weather the storm that may unfold and maximise their chances of putting a positive spin on things come 2022
If I were the tories, I would do all I could to stay in power for the full length of the parliament, until 2022.
Clearly TM will need to stand down before the election to allow the new leader to get established and be able to lead a strong campaign
The advantage the new tory leader will have is in being able to apportion blame for brexit and the economy to TM
If I were the tories, I would present a united front, rally round TM, carry on in power.
Governments always lose seats during their time in office
Ten is normal
The Tories can’t make 2022