Reasons why the Tories can’t win the next general election

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The chances that there will be another general ekection are very high. All sides of the political spectrum agree on that.

Some might think that they only issue in doubt is who will lead the Tories into it.

Others want to speculate on how far Labour's new found optimism can carry them.

I would like to deal with some facts. Economic facts. And the fact that it is very hard for a party that is delivering an economic downturn to ever win an election. And that this is precisely what the Tories are doing.

Take these things into account.

First, inflation has risen because of Brexit, and people know it.

Second, real wages are falling, and again people know it.

Third, house prices are falling, and people don't like it.

Fourth, austerity is continuing, and really beginning to hurt.

Fifth, credit is getting harder to find.

Sixth, job insecurity is growing.

Seventh, record stack markets rub in the fact that this is a two strand economy.

Add that all up and people now know that seven years of Tory rule have not put right the mess of 2008. And in that case the argument that this was all down to Labour sounds very, very hollow indeed.

Brexit over-rode economic reality for a year, but by the time the next election happens it will be apparent that Brexit will also offer no solution for any problem we face.

May hoped that by calling the election when she did the real impact of all these issues would not be fully apparent. But that will not be true next time, even if next time is as soon as October by which time the Tories won't have an economic leg left to stand on.

But, and I make the point very strongly, that does not mean that an alternative isn't needed because it very clearly is. But that's for anther blog.


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