The FT quite appropriately notes the big issues facing airlines after Brexit this morning. Put bluntly, no one knows whether UK based aircraft will be permitted to fly into EU airports after 30 March 2019, and if they are on what routes they will be permitted to fly.
Optimists will say all these issues will be resolved before that date.
Pessimists just have to say Gibraltar to provide a reason for the required unanimity to the easy option of an EU wide deal not being available.
What I do think likely is that a price will be extracted: the days of flights as cheap as they are now will be over. As a person with environmental concern (and far too large a carbon foot print) that should not concern me. But it should Brexiteers. The end of cheap flights to almost anywhere in Europe may well leave a lot of people very unhappy.
But there is another much more relevant and immediate question to also address. If any restrictions are likely, and I think they are, then why is it that we still need a new runway at Heathrow? It seems to me that Brexit has completely shot the case for that. We are not going to be the gateway to Europe now, and never will be again. And what is more, we may not even have the flights to make the links.
I would seriously suggest it's time to scrap plans for Heathrow's expansion. We're just not going to need it.
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Good points here. If Scotland goes independent I’d expect Prestwick to be developed as an international hub taking business from London’s airports. If HS2 gets built more people may choose to avoid air travel if heading to Brussels or Paris etc.. Arent’t some airlines shifting capacity to Dublin?
Prestwick? You must be having a laugh – even Glaswegians don’t want to fly to or from there. Handy , I suppose if you live or have business in Kilmarnock.
Istanbul is not in the EU and the main airport has 3 runways. How can that be justified? Seriously, you should be dragged away from talking about this as there are better experts on the subject.
What needs addressing is negotiating continued reciprocal participation in the Common Aviation Area. I suspect David Davis is on it.
Weird isn’t it? Sometimes it is said we need experts and sometimes it is said we do not. I agree with both comments on the right occasion. But what I also think is we need people to present reasoned argument on the bleeding obvious that is anything but obvious because of hegemonic thinking
I’m not an “expert” – but one “bleeding obvious” point about Heathrow is that 80% of all passengers are holiday makers & most of them are well off. Flying for business (to & from mainland Europe) has been shrinking for more than a decade due to imrpoved comms (Skype/video-conf etc). So the 3rd runway is to be built to make life easier for UK middle class holiday makers. Just to be clear.
Oh & I’m not saying “don’t do it” – I am saying let’s have some clarity as to why the 3rd runway is needed. Or perhaps you have some different data?
You are right
Many of those people are second homers too
Will that last?
The only tenuous rider is that we could see more long haul flights from America, China and Russia or anyone else for that matter who might fill the void after we leave Europe?
What else would we expect given that we have been so stupid as to rub up our nearest neighbours the wrong way?
From an eco point view BREXIT could therefore be a bigger disaster than we anticipate.
It shouldn’t make much difference to Heathrow, but it will make a difference to the businesses of Ryanair, EasyJet and to a lesser extent IAG, who will lose the right to operate flights between EU destinations outside the UK. I am not sure that BA actually do that but they can use other IAG group companies to operate theose flights.
The UK will lose the benefit of the US-EU Open Skies Agreement, but it is a simple matter to revive the UK/HS Bermuda Agreement which preceeded the EU Agreement (and was revised almost annually between 1987 and 2007).
If anything there could be benefits to Heathrow because being outside the EU allows non-EU airlines to land in the EU and fly onto the UK (or vice versa) without operating an intra-EU flight.
Lastly, it is likely that the UK would become a member of the European Common Aviation Area, just like Norway, Iceland, Tunisia, Ukraine and the non-EU Balkan states, which would obviate the need for any bilateral agreements with other European countries, although that would not make the UK a party to the EU US Open Skies Agreement. The UK is already a member through its EU membership, so this is just admin.
If it was that simple I don’t think airlines would be so concerned about it
I suggest you’re offering fake news
But then, you were good at that before the term was known
It’s like the Millenium bug pallaver. Something has to be done, but it is quite straightforward (at least for Heathrow).
There are problems for the UK based low-cost airlines.
The FT article follows a similar line to one in the Guardian. Try reading the aviation press. They have a better grasp of the issues.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/eu-carriers-could-seek-competitive-gain-from-brexit-433915/
I’ll stick with those without a line to sell to their advertisers
Don’t be silly. It is a trade magazine and gives technical information to industry specialists who have a good understanding of industry issues.
Alex
I know very well how the trade press works
Now stop wasting my time. You’ve always trolled. You won’t again
Richard
If Brexit does kill the expansion of Heathrow that will be one good thing to come out of it. My only quibble with your assessment is that I never actually accepted that there was a case for the expansion of Heathrow, and so I would say that is the project itself rather than the case for it that may well have been destroyed by Brexit.
Fair comment!
Just more London centralising, why does everything have to revolve round the Capital?
Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and many other places have good airports, why not connect these with integrated transport.
Need to look up the data on transport spend in the South East compared to the North East again.
Agreed
Look at who headed the report’ on airport expansion options.
Howard Davies – he of the ‘light touch FSA’.
In the pocket of big banks back then and still in the pocket of big banks for the airports enquiry – which is why there was no option for ‘no expansion’. All such infrastructure projects are, ultimately, investment ops.
As for this ‘Brexiteers’ lark – all people living in this country are Brexiteers now. Catch up.
Respectfully Linda, no we are not all Brexiteers
And there is no guarantee it will happen as yet