The budget had just one message: there will be no general election in 2017

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If ever I was to miss a budget it could be argued today's was the one to pick. Or was it?

Let's ignore the sideswipe at the self employed - who the Tories obviously presume they can take for granted these days - and the pittance for care and education (barring grammar schools). Ignore too the relief on Making Tax Digital and business rates, which were exercises in postponing Tory made disasters. And then look at what was left. That was nothing. Nothing at all.

Of course I know this was supposedly the last spring budget meaning that the aim was to downplay it. And I know too that there was no political pressure to do anything, but then read between the lines.

What the white spaces say is that there will be no early election. The giveaways would have been much bigger if there were to be, and the pain on the self employed would have been deferred.

Next, note the growth downgrades: they don't signal anything like enough confidence to justify going to the country as yet.

And so take it as read as a result that the decision is to wait until 2020. Then May thinks that post Brexit all will be well and she will be swept to victory.

I suspect that's also how Gordon Brown felt in 2007, on balance, when he too proved shy of the electorate. And look what happened. He, of course, did not discuss recession in 2007. And Hammond did not discuss Brexit today. But the recession was the end for Brown as Brexit will be for May, I suspect. An election postponed is all too often one lost. Today, without anything being said, an election was postponed. And I can't see it being won as a result.

I have to say that with the Tories so far in the lead right now it takes some confidence to say that. And please don't presume I am suggesting a Labour victory as an alternative: I do not see that as inevitable, at all. What I see is a mighty mess but with the Tories, for all their current confidence, losing overall control because that's the punishment meted out to those who wreak havoc. And that's what they're intent on doing.

For May triggering Article 50 will be her finest moment.

For Hammond the quiet of today might be his finest moment.

The trouble is the rest of us will be suffering as they sink into a mire of their own making.


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