I have not always agreed with FT columnist Janen Ganesh. He was far too close to George Osborne for that to happen. But now Osborne's in the wilderness Ganesh has had to look at the world a little more critically. He is certainly doing that today in the FT when looking at Therese May's prospects.
His argument is three fold. First, he says no one was better suited to be a compromiser on Brexit than May: she had hardly stated a public position on it before 23 June.
Second, he says that allowed her to permit consultation and accountability in a way that would have shared responsibility for outcomes in the negotiations and saved her.
Third, she's done the exact opposite: by refusing to give ground for anyone and going for a hard Brexit any outcome is hers alone. And as he concludes, I think correctly:
Mrs May is both invincible and frail. She could hold power for a decade, or two more years. If it is hard to picture the second scenario, remember that every prime minister since Margaret Thatcher lost their credibility in one go, not in stages: Sir John Major after Britain's disorderly exit from the exchange rate mechanism, Tony Blair after the Iraq war soured, Gordon Brown when he ducked a snap election and David Cameron on the morning of the referendum loss.
I have little doubt the UK's Brexit negotiations will fail: the twenty seven negotiating partners want them to. The UK civil service will not have its heart and soul in the job. Even May must deep down doubt why she is pursuing a path so reckless. The only likely outcome in two years will be crashing out of the EU. And that will be a failure simply because we have been told that a deal will be done.
I am not confident that means that the Tories will fail: that would require a viable alternative and there is none apparent as yet. But it does mean May might well fail. Janen Ganesh is right: May's credibility is being played for and the odds are stacked against her.
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I suspect May(hem) knows very well why she’s being so reckless; thanks to pressures from UKIP, she won’t have a party left if she isn’t. UKIP are collectively the Conservative leader, any one individual, May(hem) included, is no more than a figurehead, a mouthpiece. Split soon then? Hope so! 🙂
Don’t under estimate the corporate media’s ability to spin any eventuality as not May’s fault – they’ve had plenty of experience gained during her years as Home Secretary to fall back upon.
I’m sure I’m not the only one of your readers who can already imagine Laura Kuenssberg solemnly informing us how the task of extricating ourselves from the EU was an impossible ‘ask’ that not even Thereasa May, with her famously safe-pair-of-hands, could negotiate. The monstrous dog’s breakfast will be glossed over in favour of the ‘need for stability’, ‘competence’ and ‘clear-eyed judgements’ and no opportunity will be missed to show us who can provide those.
Even if by some chance that’s not Theresa May, it’ll be Amber s**ding Rudd.
I think there is certainly some sort of Conservative right-wing caucus currently ‘running’ May; whether she’s actually all that motivated by fear of UKIP per se I’m not sure. Nevertheless, while a political strategy for revisiting Brexit could easily be cooked up leading (even)to a second referendum or at least a commitment to a ‘soft’ exit, there’s no sign whatsoever that she and whoever she thinks she’s representing wants anything other than a clean break with the EU. This, though spun as conforming to the expressed ‘will of the people’, makes me deeply suspicious – you have to go back a long time to identify a UK govt which actually gave a fig about ‘the people’.
“Third, she’s done the exact opposite: by refusing to give ground for anyone” – even her own constituents – you know – people that have voted conservative:
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899
Apologies for re-posting – but if May cannot be civil to her own Tory constituents I suspect that she is well past her sell by date. If (& it is a big if) UKIP does badly in the two by-elections then the Tories may relax a bit. That said, I have no doubt that May (& the tory press) will blame the EU if the UK “crashes out” – but it won’t be “the UK” at that point, it will be Ingerland (and the poor Welsh). If you want a policy mess – vote labour, if you want a 24 carat soild gold cock up (always somebody elses fault) – vote Tory – they have a 100% track record.
I always thought May was a nasty piece of work, but this is quite astonishing.
Mr Bercow has dismissed the probability of a second referendum as “for the birds”. Myself, I would think that, as the adverse ompact of Brexit becomes more obvious, and as the near impossibility of any kind of satisfactory deal being made within the next few years, there is a 50% probability that May will not last, that there will be no alternative leader, that there will be a constitutional crisis, and there will be a second referendum. Breturn would win.
Mike
I haven’t seen Breturn before
Breturn? Yes, I think that is a distinct possibility. Maybe I have been influenced in my thinking by the gospel reading recently at church – the Parable of the Prodigal Son. We (or at least 52% of us – and not me)demanded our inheritance and to be allowed to leave, just like the Prodigal left Dad’s farm to go off with to town and have a good time. The money ran out and the Prodigal had to go home and was welcomed, though his brother was a bit peeved at the welcome he got from Dad. Likewise, I can just see the UK leaving the EU and initially having a good time, until the inevitable economic crisis, when reality hits. Then May will resign, there will be no obvious successor, perhaps an all party Government of National Emergency will be formed, a referendum follows, and the UK votes to Breturn. So back we go, and hopefully, the EU will welcome us back as Dad did with the Prodigal. There will be lots of grumbling from many of the other 27, but hopefully, the fatted calf will be slain and there will be great rejoicing.
Well, I suppose we can hope.
That needs faith, not just hope
Hmm………..rather than a split I see the 1922 Committee having a no confidence vote in May and then a hard line BREXIT MP being got in to replace her as PM.
The Tories know how to stick together at times like this. They want to benefit from being seen as the party that took us out of the EU by 2020.
And let s also not forget voter gullibility – when things start to slide as BREXIT takes hold, someone or something else will get the blame and the voter will fall for it.
If no deal is forthcoming surely there would be – indeed should be – considerable pressure to rescind Article 50. Indeed before two years are out surely the police will have concluded their investigation into Tory election expenses so, it is to be hoped, the government will have numbers of bi-elections to worry about.
Don’t you think that’s been quietly buried? Or will be strung out beyond 2020.
Who are the police accountable to?
I don’t talk to many Brexiteers – have to put up with my brother in law. We try not to talk politics but my wife mentioned on Sunday when he was over for dinner that Ken Clarke had taken to twitter and was really getting the hang of it after just a week or so. My brother in law said “I don’t know why you bother – he is clearly going senile.” I think the conversation rapidly went downhill ending with him refusing to confirm or deny he supported UKIP.
They say you can choose your relatives but not your family. It worries me that the UK is getting very much more polarised and resembling the US more. I thought Clarke’s anti Brexit speech was a tour de force (I think my wife used the term “bloody brilliant”) – If this is senility bring it on! Joking aside I suspect rather than listening to the speech he read some opinion piece in the Daily Telegraph or some Facebook commentary; he has brought the Brexit line hook line and sinker and follows some unsavory groups.
I suspect that Brexit will go badly wrong, but the right wing press will scapegoat the EU and St Theresa will be given a free ride. I think she will be around for a while yet
I able to be more optmistic
I long ago stopped discussing politics with my family…..
What I find surprising is that so little attention is being paid to the bill the rest of the EU will present to the UK as the possible opening salvo when Article 50 is triggered:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit
I suspect any Brexiteers who mght have given it some thought reckon they can simply walk away. Life ain’t like that.
Crunch time is going to arrive very quickly
I have an inkling negotiations might never go further than this issue
I agree. I’m pretty sure the other 27 members will refuse to discuss anything else until the terms of the “divorce” settlement are agreed. If the Brexiteers think they can walk away scot-free from a relationship that evolved and developed over 43 years they’re going to experience a rude awakening. But just imagine the outrage the Brexit-supporting media organs will drum up. The only forum that might be able to resolve the dispute is the International Court of Justice – and that could take years.
So – unity govt is the way to go
Everyone’s responsibility
I think you are a bit early for 1st April
Linda, what on earth are you talking about? Are you trying to say that, following Brexit, the results are going to be so disastrous that a coalition government will be formed between Labour & Tory in the same way that they did in WW2 and pull the country through in its hour of need?
Unfortunately, there might just be a couple of problems with that. Firstly, WW2 was an external crisis that everybody could pull together to defeat, whatever divisions existed between them politically. Brexit is a totally unnecessary disaster that has arisen from within.
Secondly, the WW2 coalition was composed of men like Attlee, Churchill, Bevan, Beveridge etc. Whereas look at the shower we have now!