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Venn diagrams for our times: Labour’s approach to Brexit
Richard Murphy
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Ouch!
But accurate to our shame.
🙂
Obviously it’s totally clear what you mean, but… to be fair, in the real world you’d hope that piss-ups and breweries were kept slightly separate.
Brilliant Richard!
About this Venn diagram, isn’t the problem supposedly about not being able to organise a piss up in a brewery? – in which case shouldn’t it be a “No piss up” circle inside a larger “Brewery” circle? Having a piss up outside a brewery (or a piss up circle outside a brewery circle) seems a perfectly respectable, suggesting I would have thought at least average competence. Not the point you were making I know.
I confess to being rather more a Richard fan than a Jeremy or John fan. But isn’t there something a bit Judean Popular Front about this? The right wing press and the Blairites attack all the time, and personally I’m not much inclined to add my voice to there’s.
a) The Venn diagrams are not meant to be literal – and mathematically are usually wrong. I know that
b) I have never been a Labour member and will criticise all politcians who fail us – and applaud those who succeed
Very good. Our politicians are failing us completely apart from a few honourable exceptions such as Caroline Lucas. The three line whip on Brexit is the last straw for me. I almost hope that Labour looses the two upcoming by-elections; they need a serious rethink.
It may be what is needed to shake Corbyn
But would May go to the country?
Theresa May has to decide whether it makes more sense to go now, before the Tory Party’s shameless gerrymandering of the electoral system kicks in to award them permanent hold on power but when the evidence on the epic nature of their mishandling – one might call it mangling – of the economy will be becoming ever more clearly in view; or whether to run with the current, less gerrymandered system now, relying on the appearance of economic “success”, and Labour’s vulnerability to UKIP, to deliver the Tories a possible landslide.
I personally believe May will opt for the latter, and probably call a General Election to coincide with the May local elections.
To go any later runs the risk of losing the window of opportunity before the dire state of the pre-BREXIT economy begins to be revealed – not to speak of the disaster lying thereafter in the run-up to, and the period after, BREXIT.
This is why I believe the truly brave, but also both politically principled and shrewd, course of action for Labour is to come out loud and clear in opposition to Article 50 in Toto, on the grounds you have argued, Richard. They will probably then lose these two up and coming by-elections, and it might lead to near annihilation in May, as happened to Labour in 1931, but because Lansbury, and Atlee thereafter, argued against the National Government’s policies in toto on a principled basis, they won back 100 seats in 1935, and, but for the War, which caused the suspension of elections, would almost certainly have won an Election in 1940.
Courage and principle are called for now, rather than timid shortsightedness.
I hope you are wrong – I hope she will not call an election
And I still think Labour needs to be courageous
Unfortunately for Corbyn, there are no good options for his leadership at the moment. Anything to do with Brexit is a no-win situation as things stand.
Go against the Brexit bill and he’ll be slaughtered (even more) by the right-wing media and drive much of the Labour leave vote towards UKIP, however right-wing their other policies may be (little rationality to be found among many leave voters, unfortunately). If Corbyn went for this option, I think it would almost certainly mean the end of his leadership as the upcoming by-elections are in areas which voted heavily for leave. Absolutely no doubt in my mind that Labour would be punished at the ballot box for ‘going against the will of the people’.
Back the Brexit bill but don’t impose the whip and he’s going to alienate the constituencies where there was remain vote and also be accused of weak leadership. My view (as somebody who sees the folly of leaving the EU) is that this would have been the least bad option for him, politically speaking.
I have to say, though, the imposition of a three-line whip seems an interesting choice. Given Corbyn’s strained relationship with much of the PLP, this would always lead to the resignations we’ve already seen (and with his record, I doubt he could blame them too much for going against the whip!), which is going to further weaken his position in any case. As we know, he was a moderate rather than an avid remainer so I do wonder if he’s just sort of hoping that things will go pear shaped enough in the 2 years after Article 50 is implemented that we’ll be able to find a way to quietly back out of the whole disaster.
Whatever happens in the future, May has striven to take ‘ownership’ of Brexit and as PM, she’ll be the one taking the blame/credit depending on what the final outcome is.
If the outcome is less than catastrophic (which I think unlikely), she’ll be lauded. If things get bad before the next election, she’ll be pilloried. Corbyn will just have to hang around in the background and try to appear as a credible alternative if things head south, so to speak.
Corbyn has to ride a storm
Lose Stocke etc
It will pass
Some in Labour did in 1931
It paid, in the end
Most amusing. This less so.
I was in Den Haag last week – talking to senior bureucrats (director level) in various Dutch Ministries including the inward investment bunch. My client has a big project that they hope to kick off in the Netherlands (UK is not relevant – does not have enough physical manure). Anyway – Dutch director said that he was getting plenty of (weekly) visits from Japanese & Korean companies – currently located in the UK & looking to move. He felt sorry for the Brits. This is all going to end very badly. – I often listen ot James O’Brian on LBC, one can only conclude that the majority of Brexiteers are cretins – & can barely string a sentence together that makes any sense what so ever.
I agree
Tears are not the end of this
The remorse will be much deeper than that
My first paragraph above is VERY imprecisely drafted, and should read:
“Theresa May has to decide whether it makes more sense to go later, in accordance with the Fixed Term Patliament Act, when the Tory Party’s shameless gerrymandering of the electoral system kicks in to award them possibly permanent hold on power, but when the evidence on the epic nature of their mishandling — one might call it mangling — of the economy will be becoming ever more clearly in view; or whether to run with the current, less gerrymandered system now, relying on the appearance of economic “success”, and Labour’s vulnerability to UKIP, to deliver the Tories a possible landslide.”
I see Richard has already expressed the same view as I have, that Corbyn needs to follow the Lansbury/Atlee line of 1935. I have to say that if Corbyn does persist in imposing a Three-line Whip to vote for Article 50, I will have to seriously consider resigning from the Labour Party.
This vote is on a par with the famous debate on Neville Chamberlain’s premiership, when a key Labour speaker in the Commons – Arthur Greenwood, I think – was urged “to speak for England” (sic, alas!) in opposing Chamberlain’s continued tenancy of the office of PM – matters now are equally grave for the future of the UK.
Thanks Andrew
Mike Parr has interesting insights and it’s always useful to know what senior people with influential contacts have to say and who take the time to pass on their valuable nuggets, their busy lives not with standing.
It is hard for the Labour party at the moment as not even the media takes them seriously anymore.
But in that situation, what is worse is that there is also a distinct lack of dignity being emanated from the party at this time.
Corbyn’s performance at the dispatch box when the May revealed the BREXIT white paper was embarrassing. I cringed to be honest. I had to turn off the TV.
It is all very well not wanting politics to be a circus and trying to seem noble but Corbyn has to face up to the fact that the current Tory frontbench (and below) are some of the most odious political characters of our times and this is not a time to be nice.
I would prefer to see outraged dignity from Labour rather than faltering point scoring.
As for May, she is just the care taker Prime Minister before the USA marches in through the back door and American corporate wolves take over.
I confess I can no longer watch