The Mail on Sunday reports today that:
A YouGov poll, commissioned by the Open Britain campaign, found that 54 per cent of Leave voters would object to the trade-off if it meant they would be even ‘a penny' worse off. The figure rose to 59 per cent for Leave voters in the North — and 63 per cent of Labour-supporting Leave voters.
When asked if they would be prepared to be £100 a month worse off in exchange for greater control of immigration, the poll found that just 11 per cent of all Leave voters agreed.
Yes, it's the Mail, but please get over that: the message is important and is that for all the government's certainty that economic well being must be sacrificed for border controls people do not want to pay a price for that.
Before he began seeing tax haven possibilities in Brexit Philip Hammond said that non one voted to leave the EU to be worse off. He was right. They didn't. And that is still very obviously the case. In that case if the economy does suffer over the next two years - whether because of Brexit or not (and opinion will differ on that, come what may) - then the backlash against the government will be severe. People were told they would be better off for Brexit. They will be unforgiving if they aren't.
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How will there be a backlash if there isn’t someone offering a credible alternative?
I did nearly add that at the end, I admit
Nobody will know for certain who will be worse off until after Brexit has actually happened. Economists work on a best guess basis, they can be wrong and regularly are.
Of course if they had been right about the initial fallout of the Brexit vote they might be seen as a credible source of advice, but right now it looks like they were so indoctrinated by conventional thinking (something Richard often complains about) that they couldn’t see the wood for the trees.
A credible alternative would need to be sold to voters by somebody that seems credible.
The conventional economists assumed the reaction would be immediate
That’s what neoliberals do
That’s their normal mistake
The real world does not work like that
There probably will be a backlash as you say – but it remains to be seen how it will be manipulated and corralled by the MSM Tory contingent.
Who will be the fall guys next? Who will be the scape goat?
Good questions
There will be one
They will just get more hostile towards the EU and will pick some bogeymen out of other EU heads of state.
Who gains the most from being in the EU as it stands now. Who looses the most?
The government has said it might need to increase tax’s to offset the decrease in economic activity caused by brexit. (yeh….economics are wrong here, but thats what they said).
And, now a poll appears asking people if they would be prepared to give up border controls, if it meant they would loose money,
Richard, we are being played for the fools and plebs that we are…. noone knows if we’ll be worse or better off. I know lots of people have become far worse off over the last 8 years, but this might be despite Europe, not because of it.
I agree we are being played for fools
And the professional political class seem to have no idea what to do about it
I have seen other polls which have returned similar results. With higher inflation in the wings, a rise in interest rates (probably driven from the US) and wages continuing to stagnate it will invariably be the ‘JAMS’ that are hit the hardest. However, the divisions between leavers and remainers are, in many instances, visceral and it takes a lot to persuade someone to abandon their chosen tribe. There seems to be a predominant view amongst many leave voters, who have commented in forums, to the effect that because the economy remains buoyant following the leave vote, if it slips after March it will have to be due to a cause other than Brexit, and appropriate scapegoats will therefore have to be found. Sadly remain voters put themselves in the firing line if they are perceived to be more affluent or less subject to hardship, more so if they are interpreted as being aligned to some mythical ‘metropolitan elite’. I have already seen accusations that ‘remain’ are ‘talking down the economy’, as if collectively remain supporters are imbued with some form of ‘X-Man like’ power to create economic catastrophe as an act of revenge. It is a small step from this to accusations of treachery and treason, particularly when we have a Prime Minister willing to frame the debate in terms of winners and losers and how the latter must ‘respect the will of the majority” implying that democratic processes and rights cease to apply to anyone on the ‘losing side’ of a vote. I hope I am wrong but I fear the direction in which we are heading.
Much to agree with, unfortunately.