It's not often that I agree with Gideon Rachman, who writes for the FT. This morning I do. He has written a column suggesting there is a third choice on Brexit. There are hard and soft varieties. To these can be added the train crash variety, which he thinks likely.
If we do Brexit, and one has to hope that politicians might still see sense as disaster looms, this is easily the most likely form. We already know Theresa May has said no to a £50 billion settlement with the EU. Rachman sees this as the first negotiating block and so likely to derail discussion that nothing much will happen thereafter. The consequence will be getting to departure point with absolutely no on the ground agreement on how trade might take place, with chaos then ensuing. And the cost will, for all the bravado of ministers, very largely fall to us simply because we will have no choice and other nations will. That gives them all the negotiating hand, whatever we say.
I am well aware that this will be dismissed by those who think leaving the EU is no more complicated than leaving the pub at closing time. The reality of the shock coming our way is going to be all the more severe as a result. As will be the on the ground political reaction, which worries me, greatly. And that's tthe point Rachman missed, concentrating as he does solely on the FT's normal areas of concern. My doubt is that the Tories will be able to manage or direct that anger, largely because they aren't proving competent at much else. That's when Brexit will turn very nasty. And why parliament needs to be prepared, now.
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Here’s a similar view
http://www.open-britain.co.uk/the_brexit_cliff_edge_by_ian_dunt
I disagree somewhat with you Richard on this one. Anger will be managed as it always has been by this country at a time of crisis – whether real or imagined.
The Tories are ready, as are other parties of the Right to make the most of this.
They will find someone else to blame and the Daily Mail/Telegraph/Express axis (not to mention the Sun) will all do their bit for Queen and Country.
And passive Labour will also help.
We will all turn on each other – just like the Establishment likes it.
This is the British way and if your Irish-ness prevents you from feeling this then you are blessed. My Celtic genes are somewhat more repressed – more’s the pity.
What do you think Labour should do/be doing? I’m not being sarcastic, I genuinely don’t know how they can benefit from Brexit except by allowing the tories to carry on bungling their way to economic disaster. After all we know that parties lose elections rather than win them.
LAbour thought they’d also keep the UK in the EU doing that – I was told this was the reason why they did not engage for so long. That did not work
Nor will standing may work now
The next election is for Labour to lose given how bad the Tories will be
I can’t imagine that anyone could seriously believe that Brexit meant anything other than Brexit.
?
Ah, I thought you were referring to post referendum policy rather than pre. I should have read more carefully. But I saw no evidence that Labour were ‘passive’ during the referendum debate, given that their northern heartlands were anti-EU. I don’t see how anyone could say that Corbyn sat back and did nothing. My local Labour Party were out on the streets every weekend trying to sell ‘Stay’ in this exgtreme ‘Leave’ town (obviously minus me).
Carol
The passivity I se in Labour is due to there inward looking focus on protecting Corbyn etc.
Corbyn has always to me blown hot and cold on the EU and I’m afraid any leader who does that sows confusion and not belief amongst potential voters.
Corbyn has said some wise words about the EU that needed to have been taken up by the Labour but the party is too riven to get behind certain themes and make the most of them.
It is very sad and the consequences are very dangerous.
But the Tories will not lose control in a way that will hurt them – as I said they will play the blame game and other innocents will suffer.
Look at the less than great job the Tories are making of managing anger in prisons. Imagine that scale of disorganisation on a national basis. Probably a good time to stock up on the basics, once again 🙂
I predict a royal wedding! Guaranteed to make people doth their caps and feel a great swell of british pride while all is crumbling around them. Surely that’s what’s meant by ‘british values’?
If the Euro/EU collapses, with or without the help of the UK, it is all academic. With luck we could have our pre Zollverein Europe back again.
I would recommend a book by Ian Dunt: ‘Brexit: What tbe Hell happens Now?”
It’s wry, readable, and based on a broad-brush look at existing trade agreements: tariffs, non-tariff barriers, quotas, disputes and the cynical politics of trade negotiations.
It’s also a look at how things worked before the EU, which is to say: badly.
I would place Ian’s predicted outcomes at the 75% marker in the spectrum of possible outcomes, with zero being an efective Remain and 100% being “all the tenners you could burn to boil a pot of coffee would buy the coffee in the pot”.
Some of his predictions about stacking trucks on the M2 will definitely come true in the chaotic early days of Brexit; and Gideon Rachman’s Train Wrexit will come true in parts- it’s inevitable that parts of something as large and complex as exiting the EU will be mishandled – with a middle quartile of the probability space predicting the disaster ‘Wrexit’.
I’m not saying which middle quartile – it’s guesswork and estimates, and not all probabilities emerge into reality.
Both authors are plausible, and that’s good enough: both are sensible enough to keep away from the outer decile where the nightmare outcomes lurk for pessimists, survivalists, and people who would do better to resort to drinking.
The short review: Light reading on a heavy topic.
I think I’ll take a look
Thanks
A word of warning, and a word of wry thanks: you have already predicted one of the nastier outcomes, and I think that you are right – the bankers who remain in London will all be launderers and valets to oligarchs.
That’s two of us, Nile. I put a link in the first post here today.
Terrifying.
“At the core of Britain’s current dilemma is a refusal to engage with objective fact. The debate about Brexit was lost, almost as soon as it began, in a tribal and emotional dogfight which bore little relation to reality. That approach continued when the Conservative Party fell apart after the vote and was put back together by Theresa May”.
Precisely. I’ve never been so depressed and appalled at the state of the UK, and the world in general, than I am now. Even if catastrophic climate change wasn’t on the way, and the vile Trump hadn’t been ‘elected’, Britain’s future is incredibly bleak, thanks to the mendacity, stupidity and fanaticism of the anti EU right, and the gob smacking levels of ignorance about the real world of so many British (OK, mainly English and Welsh) voters. I just hope that this madness can be prevented in some way; if not, that the rightist ******** %^%$^$$£ (insert any swear words you fell appropriate) behind this end up suffering its consequences ar least as much as the rest of us.
The quote, for the sake of others, is from Ian Dunt
As the FT is behind a paywall I can’t see the article there but the Irish Times often publishes interesting FT articles and it is available here: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/gideon-rachman-britain-s-third-option-is-train-crash-brexit-1.2912876
May help some blog readers
The Ian Dunt book looks interesting for a bit of Christmas reading.
A few thoughts.
Other Europeans have a keen interest in what happens in the UK and were possibly more horrified by the banality and xenophobic of the Brexit debate. The Brexit result very probably will strengthen rather than weaken EU coherence and resolve.
The UK position is very weak. It may well be the 5th (or 6th or 7th) largest Economy but is dwarfed by the EU as a whole. The EU will put coherence before a good deal with the UK and a train crash Brexit will be survivable. Indeed I suspect there are many EU hawks who will get considerable schadenfreude from the UK’s misfortune
The quality of the Brexit team is dire and they seem to be living in a self referential bubble. May is not growing into the job. This is certainly the greatest challenge since the 2nd world war. I could weep at the quality of the people in charge (Then again Labour is not much better).
Then there’s Ireland.
The trading figures are quite interesting. Ireland has run a trade surplus for every month I think since the late 1980’s, but runs a very substantial defect with the UK. Indeed it has the largest defect of any EU country with the UK (though the overall volume of trade is considerably less than say Germany).
The future of Northern Ireland is uncertain. A train crash Brexit would hit NI hard. Nobody, even the swivel-eyed Unionists, wants the return of a hard border with the Republic. I think there vastly more good will towards NI than the UK as a whole in the EU so maybe a deal can be done
According to May no single country deals are possible
NI will sink….
The contempt shown by the government towards NI and Scotland is staggering. NI has the option of joining the Republic should the politics allow it. I wish Scotland also the brightest of futures. My hope of persuading Northumberland to reunite with Scotland may be back on the cards also. 2017 will not be dull!
If Nothumberland is in Scotland I’ll be in Seahouses: Farne in the EU, I say
Although the Labour Party was officially for Remain, here in Suffolk and specially around Ipswich, about 7 days before referendum day, fairly high up in trees, telephone poles, sprang large notice boards VOTE LEAVE VOTE LABOUR. They are still up. Was this a dirty trick? Was it nationwide?
I have no idea
Sorry to post again but this from the Irish Times yesterday http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/status-of-irish-in-britain-could-change-says-theresa-may-1.2913456?f=d
This stood out:
“Ms May restated her hope that there would be ‘no return to the borders of the past’ but declined to rule out introducing passport checks for people travelling between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
‘We want to ensure that we have the right relationship on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. That’s where the focus needs to be,’ she said.”
This jumped out because earlier the line was that there would be no border between any part of the UK. The Unionists won’t like it as it will be another step on the slippery slope towards a United Ireland.
Ive been sharing this column with my French passport-holding brother in France and a British friend in Brussels who now has a Belgian passport and dealt with the Commission for many years. They tend to confirm what has been said here that the views in Europe are sad at the UKs departure, baffled and exasperated at at the demonstrable ignorance of what will be involved by leading politicians, and politely offended at the continuing derision and abuse being directed at Europe. However, they have moved on and now have more important issues to tackle. The negotiations will be painful but the EU is rather better prepared than the UK
So I fear the train crash option is the most likely scenario unless something radical changes in the governments approach. At the moment that seems unlikely to happen with the stubborn and unimaginative May being surrounded by ideological Europhobes.
A depressing end to a depressing year. All the more reason to redouble efforts in 2017
Indeed