The Guardian had two headlines of special interest to me last might:
The two are related, of course, and appropriately so in my opinion.
I have long taken an interest in he economy of Ireland. That's hardly surprising with a name like mine and the fact that I have an Irish as well as a UK passport. But this is not just a matter of economic interest. Whatever the highs and lows of Ireland (and there are ample highs to match its dire tax policies) this is a country transformed by the EU as well as the Good Friday Agreement, and all those gains are now at risk.
I am of a generation where it still seems strange to find oneself agreeing wholeheartedly with Martin McGuiness, but on this I do. If the UK persists with Brexit then the case for giving Northern Ireland a special status is overwhelming.
I hope Europe is big enough to take this issue on and address it proactively.
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Whenever I have been in Eire, the people there tell me (usually after their first pint of Guinness) that Eire would be ‘shite’ if it had not been for EU investment in the country.
I am very impressed with the possible Northern Irish stance too. I pity poor old Wales though – a country that has actually benefited from the EU system too, but seemed to overwhelmingly want to bite the hand that fed it. And when this money goes will Westminster be generous?
Scotland has of course come out with all guns blazing on this issue.
Being Irish though having lived in the UK since 1981 I also keep a strong interest. I carry an Irish Passport and my 12 year old’s arrived Saturday (turn around time 1 week). The place has had its problems but it had strongly pulled out of the 2008 crash. This was a major problem for Ireland: bailing out the banks amounting to between 40-80% of GDP (various figures are bandied around), unlike Britain where it was only about 7.5% and used as an excuse for austerity.
The Irish don’t largely blame the EU for the 2008 crisis; Banks first politicians second and EU third. Indeed when I was in UCD shortly after the Brexit vote; people reckoned that if Ireland votes on a similar referendum to Brexit that it would split about 85% remain and 15% leave; indeed if it was still part of the UK then there would have been sufficient votes to give a remain majority.
Ireland is a good place to live and on most measures scores higher than the UK in international league tables. The UN ranked Ireland as joint 6th best country to live in in 2016 (The UK comes in 14th). They are envious of the NHS and BBC but little else about the UK.
There are two economies in Ireland (a vast oversimplification) and though in 2015 the headline export figures show the UK in 3rd place for the first time afyer the US and Belgium; this is dominated by the multinationals. The home grown economy particular the agri-busness sector relies heavily on UK exports. The mushroom farmers have been particularly badly hit as about 85% of the production goes to the UK. Because of the drop in stirling their margin are completely gone and many are going out of business. Retail near the border will suffer very badly this Christmas as NI is now considerably cheaper than the Republic; though this is swings and roundabouts. It is very difficult to predict in the long term. But in the next few years most economists think Brexit will drop 0.5-1% from the growth rate. I am however optimistic in the long term.
Once the phoney war finishes; if article 50 is triggered, the NI negociations will be very interesting to watch. (Interestingly the New European quotes figures that state 1% of remainers would now vote leave but 6% of leavers would now vote remain — sufficient to give a remain majority. I’m not sure how robust these figures are; but I would expect them to harden as reality dawns). The EU is pretty disgusted with the UK (not the exit vote but the manner in which it was conducted) and getting more so with May’s retoric. However the EU is very simpathetic towards NI and feels considerable ownership of the peace process. Keeping an open border is vital to the NI economy and all sides in Ireland (even the die-hard Unionists) want to keep it open but the Brexiteers want full control of borders — this has not been thought through properly (in common with almost everything else about Brexit).
Economically it makes much more sense for NI to join with the Republic (for the North anyway). It’s interesting that in 1968 we had a civics school trip to Stormont and crossing the border from the Republic everything looked better in the North — roads, houses prosperity. Fifty years later the opposite is true; NI looks run down and impoverished compared to the South.
Politics however is something else and many in the South think of the Northerns as troublemakers. The die-hard Unionists would cut off their nose to spite their face. Interesting times
Thanks Sean
Much to agree with
I think that your observation about the appearance of NI as opposed to Eire now is very telling – a lot of the mainland UK looks knackered and ill kempt and those of us who are wise know why.
I remember moving to London in the mid 1990’s (Labour-ran Lewisham) and was shocked at the state of some of the parks in the Borough that had just been left to go to seed because of budgetary cuts throughout the 80’s.
I have to say though that the housing estates that you see on a grey rainy day as you leave Dublin by train still look like the end of the world. And some of the roads in Eire leave a lot to be desired in places even though new ones have been built. They bring a new meaning to the phrase ‘off road’ that’s for sure.
Regarding the poll quoted by the new European indicating that the Remain side would win if the referendum if it were to be held again,this seems to be it: http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/brexit-britain-british-election-study-insights-from-the-post-eu-referendum-wave-of-the-bes-internet-panel/#.WATF_NxhDZ9.
It covers some different ground to the Joseph Rowntree study and will hopefully be of interest.