A week ago Labour lest a council by-election in Sheffield to the Lib Dems on a massive swing and it was dismissed as a freak by Corbyn supporters.
Last night this happened:
Now the swing is exaggerated because the LibDems did not even fight this seat last time, but that also says that they are unlikely to have had a strong local infrastructure to build on either. And they decimated Labour and the Tories, who also lost to UKIP, I suspect.
Once is a freak. Twice does not yet make a trend, but the possibility that Labour really is walking to oblivion does seem to be growing. Some strange things may be happening in UK politics. There are interesting times ahead. Unless, it seems, you're wanting a Labour government.
And the case for a Progressive Alliance grows by the day.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
As I said last week Richard. This should not be a surprise. Labour are currently offering nothing to the floating voter. Yes there is a surge of support on the left for Corbyn but for those in the middle who float between voting for any of the three big parties then the they will just not vote for the current Labour shambles. And why on earth would they?
The Lib Dems are currently the most obvious choice to pick if you dissaprove of the Tories.
Labour currently has absolutely no electoral purpose in Scotland and looks to have been totally killed of by the SNP stealing their left of centre position. The longer the Labour shambles goes on the greater chance their is of the Liberals or someone else taking the left of centre position in the rest of the UK.
As you say, Richard, twice does not make a trend, but it’s an interesting development nevertheless. For Corbyn and his team I think he can at least take some heart from what’s going on with UKIP (see the article in today’s Guardian), which will likely see the party implode over the coming months. Whether Labour will after Corbyn’s second coronation as leader will become apparent by the end of the year I suspect. Then again, if May delivers him the kind of “victory” she handed him at PMQs this week who knows what might happen. Interesting times, as you say.
It’s bizarre that UKIP is as intent on failing as Labour
That May is showing she has no better understanding of why she wants to be PM than Cameron had
That Labour is riven
And Tim Farron can pretend to be an alternative
Oh for Scottish politics where there seems to be an altogether higher degree of comprehension on what they are all about
And to make a pantomime into a farce, I’ve just seen the news that Farage is staying with UKIP to shape its Brexit policy. Clearly the man can’t let go, and clearly their new leader will be lucky to last six months. I suspect there are very short odds on Farage being back in charge for the third time.
Only the tme frame might add some spice
I agree with your last point, we will need a Progressive Alliance if we are to see Social Democracy and the welfare state reinstated. But I’d take issue with one point and ask for clarification on another.
ISSUE. Labour isn’t walking to oblivion, it is being manoeuvred there. Under Blair, Labour was captured and turned into Neolib Plan B. Now that an attempt is being made to return it to the party that brought in the welfare state, the old New Labour rearguard have engineered a position of all-or-nothing. Like a jilted abusive spouse, they are saying ‘If I can’t have you, I’ll make sure no-one else will’. When the public see a Stalinist bureaucracy gerrymandering the vote while its apparatchiks gang up on a democratically elected leader, using smears, gossip and downright fabrication, you wouldn’t blame them for saying no thanks. And if Corbyn is reelected, it won’t stop there, will it?
CLARIFICATION. Are you blaming all those party members, old and new, who voted in Corbyn and may well do again? Because without them we wouldn’t be having a debate about alternatives to austerity and forming a Progressive Alliance. If you believe in Social Democracy, you can’t ignore that inconvenient little D word. And I suspect that for the Lib Dems to be part of a genuine Progressive Alliance, they will have to first fight their own internal battles with the likes of Sir Ed Davey – one minute the country’s Energy Secretary, the next a lobbyist for EDF.
Oh come on, the paranoia is really unnecessary and the accusations unfounded
If you want to believe the whole world is against you feel free
But actually right now Corbyn and McDonnell are offering some pretty inconsequential stuff that the Tories will borrow some time
The reality does not justify your rhetoric
I wouldn’t call pressing the reset button in the political debate from ‘Austerity & TINA’ to ‘Let’s get off this mad Neolib handcart’ inconsequential.
That is now Labour’s position, whoever wins the leadership election. And if the Tories borrowed setting up a national investment bank, renationalising the railways & power companies, and ending the debt peonage of a whole generation, then great – I might even vote for them.
As you say, there are interesting times ahead. So whether it’s just paranoia or not, we’ll very soon find out.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarghhh!!!! No!
Please tell me it is not true!!!
Quite – that’s shocking!
Hoping that there is some extra-ordinary local factor in play here.
Corbyn will be hoping that sitting Labour MPs and councillors don’t embark on a spree of assaulting teenagers as happened in this case. Biting the nose of a local youth is never going to do much for the prospects of whoever fights for your party once you’ve resigned in disgrace.
http://labourlist.org/2016/09/labour-vote-halves-in-shock-council-by-election-loss-to-lib-dems/
Oh come on
People are bigger than that
This was not an explanation
You really are clutching at straws
I’m slightly wary of extrapolating from council by-election results – mainly because in this case the Lib Dems had not contested the ward in the previous set of elections so we have no real way of knowing what their underlying support was.
Looking at the latest national polling from YouGov (see https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/15/voting-intention-conservatives-38-labour-31/), the Lib Dems are on 7% – actually slightly *below* their 2015 election result. So if anything they seem to be stagnating, if not actually fading away. Given the disastrous experience of the coalition govt, this doesn’t massively surprise me.
Interestingly, the YouGov poll also appears to show some shift from the Tories to Labour – which seems strange given the complete dysfunction of Labour at the moment…
Howard
It might be fair to conclude it’s hard to tell what is going on
I have a feeling clarity will be a long time coming
I do not see a perpetual Tory lead as inevitable either: May has the capacity to make a mess of what she’s doing as mcun as she may be a success
Richard
The Orange book Lib Dems, who were instrumental in forging the coalition with the Tories, are still a major force. I would be very wary about supporting a party of strong libertarian beliefs. David Laws, Ed Davey et Al, no thanks.
I share that concern