Much to my surprise I noted that the FTSE 100 was recording a level of nearly 6,300 yesterday:
Many will recall that earlier this year, when markets seemed dedicated to exploring new lows on a near daily basis I thought we were heading for an early economic crash. I was far from alone, but it seems that paradise lost has been postponed. I was wrong, and I admit it. I accept that. Forecasting economics is nigh on impossible.
But I will take the risk again. Last week the US delivered much worse employment data than expected: this week the expectation that the Fed will raise rates seems to be disappearing.
Germany has passed a new milestone: its government debt in aggregate now has negative interest rates.
And the UK (and markets as a whole) face turmoil if there is Brexit. The uncertainty about the future of the government will make things tough even if we Remain.
In between all that there has been no real change of policy on austerity anywhere.
And Greece remains a finely balanced disaster still waiting to finally tip over.
It may not be crash time, yet.
But I see no reason for optimism either. And I won't until policy changes.
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I would trust your professorial insight more than I would trust a stockmarket’s ability to read the economic runes. I fear you won’t be wrong for too long, even if your forecasts may have cost people money in the short term. I’m certainly heeding your advice and liquidating part of my pension savings in anticipation of the coming collapse.
I hope after your comments yesterday on the Future of Blogging, that we aren’t going to lose your essential guidance in the future.
Two refinements on your prediction. If the Brexit vote is to stay, there will be a short surge in the markets to even more unsustainable levels before reality returns. If Brexit wins, the crash will start the next day. Similarly, if Clinton wins, a short peak, if Trump wins, immediate crash.
I believe bookies rather than pundits and the bookies are still 2/1 on staying, though the odds are shortening.
I struggle to find Remain voters
Here’s one! My overseas postal vote for Remain was mailed to South Hams (Devon) about a week ago.
I too struggle to find remain voters amongst my colleagues – all London based middle class professionals. not only that, I sense that the outers are much more passionate, and therefore more likely to vote.
it’s important that progressive forces realise what this means and prepare to grab the agenda if there is an out vote. the sort of parliamentary gruella warfare mooted by the guardian over the weekend will be futile and in the long run lead to the election of more and more UKIP MPs.
instead, the left need to be prepared to demand that brexit negotiations are set to deliver for the 99.9% rather than the 0.01%.
I will vote Remain and yes I know that soliciting votes is not the point of your comment. I would love to be wearing a tee shirt that says “ask me why” but I can’t find the soundbites that would help me to convince the ignorant and undecided and I’m not up to verbalising my own gut feelings. That’s why I fear we’re going to loose.
My single question for Brexiters is “What is your Plan B?”. You leave and tear up all these agreements in order to negotiate new ones. What do you do if the terms you are offered are even worse than those you had already? If you have ever bought a used car, you know you won’t get a decent deal unless you are prepared to walk away. Can you walk away? Can the UK operate with no trade agreements at all? If so, how?
Neither capitalism alone or socialism alone are the answer to our economic woes. Most countries have taken from both systems to support one another and muddle through rather like two drunks leaning on each other on the walk home following closing time at the local public house!
All roads lead to the banks. Unless their hegemony is ended once and for all ie the debt based monetary system thrown in History’s dustbin, we will have a worldwide economic collapse.