The FT has an article this morning with the headline:
Conditions for rate rise approaching, says Fed
That's one interpretation of the Fed's minutes for July. I have to say that I think it an optimistic one and believe that Frances Coppola, writing for Forbes on this occasion, is much closer to the mark when saying:
Although the FOMC clearly wanted us to believe that interest rate rises will come soon, normality now appears as far away as ever.
Why? Simply because of the massive uncertainties in the real economy. Let me just list some:
China
Flight from emerging markets that needs to be discouraged
Greece
Low inflation
Poor growth
Underemployment
And that's just for starters in the US, and the UK, come to that.
The Fed could increase rates. I think they'd be reversing them remarkably quickly. The mere playing with the idea and the hint that it provides that bankers still hanker after wha they see as the normality of pre-2008 is the clearest indication as to why wiser counsel than central bank policy committees is sometimes needed on such issues as interest rate setting. The real world has to enter into such decision making.
That's what politics is about. And in the world of wise politics the world pre-2008 is toxic and not to be visited again. The differences between these world views is vital right now. The right one has to prevail.
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Not to mention the impact on the US$ 555 Trillion interest rate linked derivatives market.
Kaboom.
Hi Richard,
Fed to raise interest rates, that’s a joke. If they did that the whole pack of cards comes tumbling down. As Mitch Feierstein says, “you can’t taper a ponzi scheme”. As he quotes the whole banking system is based on ” extend & pretend, Divert, Deflect, Deny & Deceive. Read his book, Planet Ponzi.
The whole of the political and banking system is rotten to the core. Unfortunately Jeremy Corbyn will face the neo-liberal clap-trap of rubbishing him with what he wants to see as a fairer society, he’ll need more than a strong back bone to stand up to what is coming. I wish him all the best in his fight against what is a real evil in this world.
Keep up the good work Richard, I for one am a supporter of what you are trying to obtain.
Thank you