Today's message from the Conservative party conference is a relatively simple one. For those on lowest income there is very little good news because austerity is going to hit this group very hard indeed whilst for the best off the news is really quite good indeed.
The Huffington Post highlighted the IFS Green Budget which showed the impact of an increase in the the personal allowance to £12,500, which was one of the big announcements today, their diagram being as follows:
As the IFS said of this proposal:
69% (£8.4 billion) of the £12.2 billion per year giveaway would go to working families in the top half of the income distribution...Just 15% (£1.9 billion) would go to working families in the lowest-income half of the population.
It's hard to be clearer than that.
And as for the proposal to increase the point where the top rate of tax kicks in? That's a tax cut for the top 15% or so of tax payers. How much? Hard to tell because of timing, but call that 4 million or so people saving tax at 20% on about £8,500 a year at present and that's coming on for £7 billion a year.
So that's £15 billion a year given away to the top half of the income distribution to be paid for by punishing those in the bottom half.
It's hard to exaggerate how callous this is.
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I am sure the slight reduction will be helpful especially as interest rates will increase and therefore mortgage payments.
But the beauty of it is that given Cameron can rely on the majority of the media not to report who the biggest beneficiaries are, he can get away with claiming this is all about giving to the least well off (which in reality is partially true). And, given that anyone can see that £12,500 is a larger sum than £10,500 he will be believed, and the likes of The Sun and Mail will bang on about it at every opportunity they get.
Combine that with the equally simple trick of claiming that not increasing benefit is all about being fair to those in work. Again, the beauty of the sleight of hand (because we all know its actually about punishing people the Tories believe are the undeserving) is that it’s based on a simple piece of maths that anyone can understand: why should benefits increase more than wages.
And then the final coup de grace. With Labour firmly drawn into the austerity narrative, continue to play the “our cuts are bigger than your cuts” game. A game that, unless Labour politicians want to become out and out Tories (and lets be honest, some may as well be), Labour can never win, and hey-presto, the conference season battle has been won hands down by the Tories. And, worse still, the pre-election battlefield is now not looking good for Ed, not least because the Tory press have a full arsenal of material they can trot out from now until the election.
One final point. Note that Cameron used a lectern for his speech, dispensing even with the left/right invisible glass contraptions. Even I – a person who detest the man almost as much as I did Thatcher – have to admit it made him look statesman like. Contrast that with Ed: wandering about and speaking off the cuff. That might be appropriate for a lecturer whose trying to come across as cool and friendly with his students, but even then a lot of them will think it naff. And that’s because in most cases it is.
Overall then, a pretty dire start for Labour to what is going to be a long and nasty election campaign.
(And I forgot to add that as nobody can out lie Cameron when it comes to what will or won’t happen to the NHS – as we already know from the previous election – even the ‘NHS is safer in our hands’ strategy is probably not going to be that effective)
Depressingly accurate
Including on speaking
I can do impromptu, but not for a big one
One looked like a schoolboy here
One didn’t
And that plus all the lies worries me
With all the ammunition available, this election is Labour’s to lose.
However, from all available evidence, that is exactly what they intend to do.
Lacklustre campaigning, finicky,ineffectual and confusing policies coupled with an astonishing commitment to avoid the real issues of health, living standards and corporate criminality say, to my heavy heart, that this is one they are sitting out.
Besides which by the time the ‘cut’ comes in working 30 hours a week on £12500/yr will be barely enough for most people to get by on when typical living costs are factored in. There will be tax credit and other social security ‘claw backs’. And Universal Credit is going to mean that people will have to work at least 35 hours, with most people having to work much longer.
I think Ed, unlike some of those around him, sees the picture but I’m not convinced he can paint it.
The Scottish referendum made clear something I pointed out a few years ago (when it looked as though the BNP were going to get elected in Preston (or Burnley or somewhere Lanccastrian & provincial) namely that the ballot went up from about 35% to about 75%. I.e its just not true to say that the majority of working class people aren’t interested in politics.
They are profoundly disillusioned & Blair’s Govt, & the language he used to win over what he saw as the majority, made them more than ever disgusted. Given the choice of Labour or BNP the good people of Preston (or Burnley) voted. Given the chance for independence the good people of Scotlanrd voted.
If they can be motivated, all the good people in the UK would vote & they would way outweigh the Tories, but, at present, what is there to get them out?
I fear not
Ivan
For once I find myself not fully in accord with your views.
I think I detest Cameron, and his government, every bit as much as I detested Thatcher and her governments.
Has noone thought to comment that this great-sounding increase (£2500) is over 5 years (by 2020). That’s an average (compound) annual increase of 3.55%.
Over the past 5 years the CPI has averaged 2.99%.
So Cameron’s marvellous promise is a ‘slightly better than zero in real terms’ increase in the tax-free allowance. Keeping place with inflation, but not much more.
Wow. If this wins him the election, Labour don’t deserve to be called an ‘official’ opposition.