Whilst doing my day job (that is, tax research) I noted some odd data on the number of people HMRC think will be paying inheritance tax. This comes from their own spreadsheet on the issue suitably tailored to highlight the issue of concern:
I could just dismiss this as being typically, and wildly, optimistic forecasting of the type that seems to pervade all the HMRC data on tax collection for the next few years, most of which has very obviously been put together to keep political masters seeking a balanced budget happy, but maybe there is another explanation as to why HMRC think both lifetime IHT payments and the number of chargeable estates will rise significantly from 2010-11 on (which is the last year fro which we have any real information). If so, can someone remind me what it is, because right now apart from an optimism about growth I can't think of a good reason. I have checked in the budget statement and apart from freezing thresholds - which supposedly and highly improbably will apparently almost double revenues in six years, there is no hint of a reason.
Any assistance appreciated.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
It must be related to current and expected house price inflation I would have thought. Less probably, the forecasts might factor in a continued concentration of wealth into the hands of the wealthiest.
The numbers do look odd. Rising valuations of houses and other assets (stock market mainly) would presumably account for some of the projected increases but the numbers still look optimistic.
House prices in London are increasing, even if the rest of the UK are still suffering from Browns broken promise.
With many people now entering their 80’s and 90’s years, do to war and sex, we shall see more people dying over the next few years. Its even worse in 10 years for the next generation of children dying.
But nothing technical then?
Is an increase of 10,000 really significant? With an ageing population maybe the questionn is why are the numbers so low?
The CLTs is the odd one. They’re driven by conscious planning/reactions, as opposed to the death liabilities which are (potentially) simply a passive outcome of rising property values. What are people going to be doing more of that they don’t do now – asset transfers to try to avoid care home fees perhaps?