The is the South Shields election result:
And at present these are the council election results:
I am not surprised by either. The Labour vote in South Shields stuck in proportionate terms when it should have increased. The Coalition was decimated. UKIP gained. Unsurprisingly, so too did Labour in council results where, also unsurprisingly, the Lib Dems have fared better proportionately than the Tories because they have better organisation on the ground.
I am surprised the Coalition was decimated as much as it was in South Shields. There must be fear in the hearts of many Coalition MPs this morning.
I'm not surprised Labour was returned there.
I'm not surprised Labour is winning council seats.
But most of all I'm not surprised at UKIP. I only have to talk to people here in Norfolk to know how disaffected they are with the government and politics in general. To put it bluntly, they're worried and they need hope and since the Lib Dems now provide no refuge and Labour isn't saying anything of substance they're willing to listen to someone, however bizarre his policies, who seems to offer some certainty in a world there appears to be little.
I hope this is UKIP's moment and they now fade as the reality of their politics (or lack of them) is appreciated as they take some serious offices and have to mount credible political positions.
But most of all I hope Labour realises that without a narrative it too is in the wilderness. Farage delivers one, however incoherent it is. Labour has to deliver one too. The only difference is it must be coherent. And that requires more work.
It's hard to see what can redeem either Coalition party.
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Grant Shapps on T.V this morning trying not to look ashen bleating on about ‘hard working people’ and plugging the immigration thing rather desperately. I worry that the UKIP results are a surge to the right. I agree, unless the Labour party really grasps the nettle they are lost. South Shields tun out was very low which might indicate that many feel ‘disenfranchised’ by the lack of a real alternative to monetarist economics -this is bad as it means more minority Government and lack of democracy which is what we have now.
Actually – I think turn out at 58% was very good for a by election
But you’re right overall
Err, turnout was only 39.28% so just over 60% of people couldn’t be bothered to vote.
My mistake
But by election normal
R
From the table the turnout was 39.28% for yesterday’s election, unless I’m misunderstanding?
My mistake
The parade of Conservatives, Lib Dems, Ukipers and the BBC and Sky News experts all spinning both the South Shields by-election and the currently unknown results for a vast majority of local elections, a veritable smorgasbord of disingenuous commentary.
“However, her majority of 6,505 – on a turnout of 39.2% – was significantly down on the 11,109 achieved by Mr Miliband three years ago.”
Well of course, considering in 2010 Turnout was 36,518 57.7%, but saying Labour only lost a few percent of the vote share was not as useful. Yes, South Shields is a Labour heartland, it’s not a surprise they won, but the fact that most of the local council elections are in what amount to Conservative and Lib Dem “heartlands” do not seem to figure in the reporting thus far, I wonder why?
Now we have Simon Hughes doing his usual rounds and disingenuous commentary, funny he seems to forget there have been more by-elections than just Eastleigh which was not as great a victory as he and his party spun it to be, remind me again Mr Hughes, how many lost deposits now? Mr Hughes, you got less than half the votes the BNP did, and they lost vote share to (I wonder who to?).
Undoubtedly the Tories will see a big lurch to the right as their ‘redeemer’, Richard. Whether that works or not we’ll have to wait and see, but I doubt it – though it will be the cause of more misery and suffering for many poor, unemployed, sick, and less fortunate people between now and May 2015 (and beyond, as whoever forms a government after that will not be able to reverse the wrongs done by the ConDems for many a year).
The Lib Dems are finished as a political force, as you say. Hanging on to Chris Huhne’s seat (by a massively reduced margin) simply provided them with a chimera of hope. In reality there is none. And if any Lib Dem thinks otherwise they really are dangerously niave,stupid, or both. They are now tarred with the same brush as the Tories (as a nasty party), but worse still for them, as an untrustworthy and cowardly, party. And as the Tories lurch to the right they will be dragged with them. Or if they try to resist they will simply be overwhelemed and outmanouvered by the Tory ‘machine’ – as has been the case since the outset of this government.
The sensible, survival strategy would of course, be to use a Tory lurch to the right as the excuse to walk away and leave the Tories as a minority government. Then they’d perhaps have just enough time to reestablish their ‘brand’, distinctiveness and some credibility as a non Tory party. But Clegg and co don’t have the courage or strategic outlook to do that. And in any case, the like’s of Alexander, Laws, and co, are now Tories anyway.
And so, at the next election they will go the same way as the SDP, with their place in history forever labelled as the party that provided the cover and legitimacy for the most reactionary and nasty Tory government since the 19th century (unfortunately I can’t think of which would be nastier or more reactionary at the moment). Still, no doubt they’ll all find nice, well paid jobs in the city or some related haven of the 1%, for whom they’ve done so much.
Ivan, I’m not sure after re-reading that you are saying the SDP provided the cover for Thatcher? If so, I have-unusually- to disagree. I got involved with the SDP for the 1983 election. I heard many stories from former Labour members who had been forced out by ‘comrades’ who used all sorts of tactics including threats of physical force. They represented another sort of reactionary and backward looking force-a nineteenth century socialism. The Labour Party could have developed into a modern social democratic party like those in the Netherlands or Scandinavia but chose instead to follow a road to a collectivist fantasy. This kept them out of power for another fourteen years.
The SDP/Liberal Alliance in 1983 got about 26% of the vote, with Labour on 27%. if we had had PR I suspect the Alliance would have replaced the Labour as the Centre Left opposition and even won the 1987 election.
Because of our electoral system we need a centre left coalition which will mean a number of rank and file Lib Dems, Greens and Labour plus those like me who are not attached to any one party. Whether Milliband and Labour can provide this leadership remains to be seen.
“The Labour Party could have developed into a modern social democratic party like those in the Netherlands or Scandinavia but chose instead to follow a road to a collectivist fantasy.” Do you mean this type of fantasy (extracts from 1983 Labour Party manifesto – lifted from Labour Briefing):
A massive programme of expansion, a major increase in public investment including transport, housing and energy conservation.
A huge programme of construction ‘so that we can start to build our way out of the slump,’ to ‘halt the destruction of our social services and begin to rebuild’.
An ‘increase in investment in industry with public industry taking the lead’.
Steering investment towards the regions and inner cities.
A crash programme of training and employment.
Holding back price rises by action on VAT, rents, rates and fares.
And the most important (for me):
The scrapping of Trident and other nuclear weapons.
The other controversial proposal was to prepare for withdrawal from the EEC (UKIP, anyone?).
Good summary Richard.
It is so the time for a new thing. And it isn’t UKIP. Barring Coalition implosion, two years next Tuesday the country will go to the polls. In this age of instant communication that is long enough to build something.
You are right, people are “worried and they need hope”. If “they’re willing to listen to someone…who seems to offer some certainty in a world there appears to be little”, then a new thing needs to be offered to draw people away from the poison of UKIP. And there is no sign that Labour are it.
Richard
I agree
Richard
Less than 190 votes for me and easily in last place – representing the Green Party. Tories win easily, but UKIP also gaining ground. Despairing over politics to be honest. Despair over everything actually.
Worrying
And I am sorry for Greens
Why they’re not now the party of protest I do not know
Martin and Richard
I’d say a lot of that has to do with the media in the UK and how it ‘ranks’ and reports on issues. Green issues (in the widest sense) simply don’t get the coverage or ranking that other issues do. They are simply not seen as urgent, threatening or dangerous – as immigration has now been framed as being – and thus not newsworthy, particularly not to a reactionary press, which is what most of the media in this country are and specialise in.
In addition – and Richard blogged about this yesterday re the BBC’s attitude to him and TJN – green issues have been framed over many years as inherently anti business, and thus anti-progressive and thus, ergo – a bit cranky. I know they’re not, but over the last ten years I’ve consistently picked that up from students I teach, and I’m not talking of the 18-22 age group when I say that either.
If it’s any consolation, I too get deeply disheartened about politics in the UK (which is one reason I gave up teaching it) – I’m sure plenty of readers of this blog do. But then I read stuff that Richard blogs about that does actually make a difference (such as UK Uncut taking HMRC to court), and so on, and that shows its worth sticking at.
Thanks
“Why they’re not now the party of protest I do not know”
They mainly appeal to a narrow middle-class elite – no better demonstrated by the fact that they won a parliamentary seat in Brighton. Thats ‘elite’ in terms of background and education, not necessarily personal means.
I don’t say that to criticise, or because I think that’s who they aim at (and I speak as someone who has voted Green, and was a party member for a period). It’s just that almost all the people I know who even talk about them seem to fit that description.
That’s anecdotal, of course.. but the polls seem to back it up.
One problem is that a not insignificant number of liberal, sceptical, middle class, educated, disillusioned former Liberal Democrat and Labour voters are put off the Greens by their association with dubious pseudoscience, for instance in the realms of quack alternative medicine. It’s disappointing to see the Greens main concerns allied with this needless fringe rubbish.
Just a theory, but a lot of people in despair – no jobs, no money. I’m guessing that in times like this people are thinking ‘immediate survival’ – as opposed to long-term survival (the environment, climate change, etc). As pointed out on of the blogs: “They mainly appeal to a narrow middle-class elite — no better demonstrated by the fact that they won a parliamentary seat in Brighton.”
At the end of the day, any political party has to put itself in the shoes of the electorate and answer the question that would be asked of them – “What’s in it for me?” “why should I vote for you?”. At the moment, people are doing it tough and rightly or wrongly, they’re not thinking of the future of the planet.
I haven’t seen the Greens’ campaign material or messages, so correct me if I’m wrong, but it would seem that if the Greens were a little clever, they would be linking (STRONGLY) jobs with environmental protection, new carbon-free industries will mean jobs, etc, etc. And in times like this, the emphasis should be on the jobs bit.
Dear Martin, you have my sympathy. Here in Geriatrica-by-the-Sea I got 333 votes, as against UKIP 999 and a very very nasty tory’s 1700+. I was told by someone from a neighbouing district where ‘she’ had been councillor before that she ‘was a nasty bit of work’. As soon as I set eyes on her I guessed it was she: long blonde hair, nose stuck in the air: miaou. It was even worse than my last glorious defeat in the borough elections when I was squashed by a, what looked like, ninety year old who could hardly stagger to the platform for her victory speech. At least last night there were no speeches.
Sorry to hear of your result, Martin. Must be nearly soul-destroying. If the greens aren’t registering an improvement then we have no progress for any party that puts social justice first. I think we have too many that might support change feeling depressed and apathetic – this is understandable. Voters turning to UKIP is bottom drawer deperation – I would blame a largely supine and immobilised Labour party for this. Perhaps we have to accept that the moral arc towards change is a long and painful one.
Martin, It wasn’t too difficult to work out where you lost. I happen to live just to the north, where an Independent won on a very local planning issue (think you can guess where!) Just a thought…the Greens don’t do a lot to promote themselves year in, year out in this area. They don’t have a high profile in the local press and at grassroots level. It’s “vote for a goat with a blue rosette” territory round here, but there are plenty of people who are looking for an alternative, if only there seemed to be a credible one. Given the profile of the area, there’s a perfect opportunity for politicians who are genuinely interested in socially beneficial growth without damaging the environment. Don’t despair! There’s an embryonic transition movement, which supports many green ideas, if not the Green Party itself.
It was well put by a Lib Dem on the radio this morning: “We’re no longer the ‘none of the above’ party. We’re one of the above.”
In the race to be the *new* none of the above party, UKIP are way out in front. The BNP are back in their nasty little box, and the Greens are invisible in most of the country.
What’s most astonishing is the reluctance of any of the mainstream parties to capitalise on the long-standing disaffection with politics and politicians in general by actually changing their policies and adopting a more representative outlook. I think it speaks volumes of the power a small number of very wealthy, very powerful, and very privileged interests hold that all three of the main parties stick so rigidly to the same dogmatic political consensus.
Agree about the middle class outlook on the Greens. But this part of Essex is wealthy, supposedly one of the best places to live in the UK according to official statistics and I can’t see many of the angry working class looking to vote in these elections. Not in my area then. Hmmmmmm. On second thoughts, no wonder people voted for the right-wing parties!
I can’t help but notice that the Ukip percentage of the vote is pretty much that gained by Beppe Grillo in the Italian GE. I believe that the Grillini are now figuring at about 13% in the opinion polls now as people realise that rather than some alternative their default position is very much to the right.
As I understand it, Germany also has its ‘protest party’ which also comprises a right wing leadership.. and doubtless its the same in other countries across the EU.
It suggests that the Ukip vote reflects the disillusionment with politics and the lack of adequate journalism that was inevitable with the americanisation of European politics and the cleaving to the so-called ‘centre ground’. Ed Miliband needs to take his message from the Attlee government not Blair.
Agreed!
Agreed. We are at a “revolutionary moment” as Beveridge put it. No one is doing anything other than a patching job on an already discredited system. So yes, someone does need to envoke the Attlee spirit. Maybe some in Labour are up for that, but is the leadership? What would it take for Labour to fracture?
Ken Loach is suggesting it
And has a lot of union backing
There’s a great piece by Marina Hyde on the Guardian website about Nigel Farage’s appeal to voters compared to three main party leaders who “spent the week of the local elections looking like pompous arses, while the affable semi-berk Farage has led Ukip to the biggest surge by a fourth party in England since the second world war”: see http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/nigel-farage-superpower-politics-lightly
I like her
I am happy that the independent candidate won and I know a certain director of an accountancy business will be very happy (I don’t mean Richard). To be honest, the Greens knew we hadn’t a chance in this area – all resources were thrown at Witham and Rochford, and we were successful in these divisions. Anyway, lets hope the independent councillor can add some spice to local politics!
I wonder if I know the same director, who has already made some philanthropic acts ;-). Sorry to everybody else for speaking in riddles, but there are people involved who have craved and deserved privacy.
Seriously, though, I’ve considered becoming involved with the Greens, but there isn’t even a local contact on their homepage. There are plenty of local issues which could galvanise local support – the expansion of Stansted being just one. The Independent win north of Stansted shows that people can be tempted off their sofas to vote, if there is a strong enough campaign – and perhaps some money!
If you start a NW Essex group, I promise I’ll join and help get the show on the road for the next elections. There you are! You’ve just got yourself a supporter! We could show these Ukippers how to be a protest party with some proper policies.
Back in 1979 the most charismatic and electable Labour politician was Dennis Healey, and the party appointed the unelectable Michael Foot, rather than the risk of Healey becoming prime minister. The party were convinced that all they needed to do was to move to the loony left to ensure election.
In 1997, I smiled when the Tories went through an even more extreme process, appointing three successive nonentities as leader, rather than Kenneth Clarke. Again, they believed that a shift to the rabid right was all that was required. I disagree with Clarke on most things, but I respect him for having a mind of his own, and occasionally speaking it.
Now Labour have Ed Milliband. As far as I can see he was appointed purely on a platform of not being Gordon Brown. Maybe a good starting point, but hardly sufficient. Surprisingly, we haven’t had the lurch to the unelectable left. Unfortunately, the only Labour policies seem to be to make opportunistic criticism everything the Government does, and to promise to do almost exactly the same, only not quite so badly.
Currently we have a failing economic policy based on incorrect models and multiple false assumptions. Labour seems only to offer Tory economics lite. Sadly, I think it is more likely they will lurch to the left than that they will begin to offer a credible economic alternative.
It seems to me that UKIP is not that far removed from Golden Dawn in Greece and Grillo’s party in Italy. That is my real concern: that absent a social democratic alternative the far right can paint themselves as the protector of ordinary people, and so gain support.
I am in Scotland. I have moved reluctantly, over a period of years, to full support for independence for this country. This result serves to reinforce that position. I seems from where I am sitting that the english electorate genuinely wish to live in a country governed by the far right: it took me a long time to reach that view, but it is what I see. I realise many do not want that and are looking for social democratic alternative, but they are outnumbered, at least in electoral terms. The Labour party do not appear to consider that will change, and so ride two horses: trying to be tory lite for the majority while promising to mitigate the worst effects for the rest. We have seen what can be achieved even within the narrow constraints of a devolved Holyrood and it is telling that when Labour had a majority there they did next to nothing. The SNP are popular here even amongst unionists.
UKIP’s rise is likely to be a final straw for some in Scotland who are not naturally in favour of indpendence. It bothers me that if UKIP were to gain some power (in a coalition,for example) and if Scotland chose independence, then it would not be long before Farage was portraying Scotland as his “last territorial demand”. UKIP already wish to abolish Holyrood as an entity, and it suprised me they even have a position on that: but only till I thought about it
Generally on-topic, is Tax Research UK in favour of the UK staying fully in the EU -or- some sort of departure (big or small)?
I would stay rather than leave
BUT I think renegotiation I necessary for Europe as a whole to limit h emphasis on the power of capital