George Osborne would have us believe that the economics of the state are the same as the economics of the household. In that sense he’s Thatcher’s true heir.

He is wrong. She is wrong.

I’ve blogged this video before (I think), but it’s worth noting again:

Please watch it.

The message is simple: what’s good for a household is disaster for a state.

Hat tip to the TUC

 

There’s a good feature on Left Foot Forward on VAT – and the political cynicism behind Osborne’s move to make the increase permanent – which will just (again) make the tax system in the Uk yet more regressive and oppressive.

This is their graph on VAT rates since 1973:

It’s only ever gone up under the Tories.

Odd that, isn’t it?

And now the rate is the same is income tax.

No wonder the poor feel worse off.

 

A couple of days the former Bailiff of jersey, Sir Philip Bailhache, wrote a long letter to the Jersey Evening Post saying Jersey was right to resist UK effotrts to impose the findings of the EU Ciode of Conduct for Business Taxation group on the island.

Today the JEP published my reply, which was as follows:

SIR Philip Bailhache (JEP, 14 December) is wrong when he says Jersey’s fight over zero-ten is with the UK. It never has been, and it is not now.

Indeed, until 2009 it is almost certainly true that the UK provided considerable protection for the Crown Dependencies against the impact of the EU Code of Conduct on Business Taxation.

It is well known that Dawn Primarolo MP, who chaired this group for a decade while a UK Treasury Minister from 1997 onwards, took the view Jersey now promotes that personal taxation was outside the scope of the code and as such zero-ten worked despite the continued ring fence created by the enforced distributions of companies being taxable within the personal taxation system even though this was very obviously a blatant ruse designed to undermine the whole purpose of the code.

It was only in 2009 that this position changed in the Treasury, when more enlightened ministers stood back and looked at what they were being asked to support and realised it was akin to blatant and aggressive tax avoidance. They then withdrew their support for the position the Crown Dependencies have maintained. To their credit coalition ministers have supported this view.

Whether or not they did and do, however, is not relevant. It was always going to be the European Commission who reviewed the compliance of the Crown Dependencies with the code and their reviews, undertaken recently and which I have seen, are unambiguous. In terms of overall approach and in respect of three out of the five detailed areas where compliance is required the European Commission has found that the zero-ten systems of each Crown Dependency (including, implicitly, Guernsey) failed to comply with the code of conduct. This was not a UK decision. I stress, the technical analysis was done by EU staff. I have seen their work and the rulings are unambiguous. They have been adopted by EcoFin on behalf of the European Commission as a result.

It is equally unambiguous that the UK must comply with this decision and impose – I stress, impose, even if against the will of the Crown Dependencies – this decision on Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man. But that is not whether or not the Treasury wants to do so; it is because the EU requires the UK to do so because as far as the EU is concerned the Crown Dependencies are, at least for these purposes, part of the UK.

In that case almost all that Sir Philip Bailhache writes is straightforwardly wrong and thoroughly misleading, as is his claim that he is writing in his capacity as a lawyer. I doubt that. I think he is writing as a well-known proponent of Jersey becoming independent from the UK. No doubt in that context he would like a constitutional fight with the UK, but it’s one he can’t win, and nor can Jersey. That is because the costs of independence will be far higher when Jersey’s inability to manage its budget – which has now been ongoing for several years – becomes more starkly apparent as events develop over the next few years and Jersey needs every friend it has got to bail it out.

The reality is then that, as I predicted in 2005, Jersey has created a tax system which was always and very obviously going to fail to meet Europe’s requirements. I knew that at the time because unlike Jersey officials I went to Brussels and bothered to ask them. In which case it is now time for Jersey to stop laying down smoke screens and accept the truth which is that this is the time for it to stop abusing international rules on tax and get on and comply with them.

PS Worth reading TJN take on this, here

 

I’d missed this on the BBC Isle of Man website:

The UK deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, has pledged to support all “transparent” tax jurisdictions.

He was speaking at the 15th meeting of the British-Irish Council held in the Isle of Man on Monday.

Mr Clegg’s statement comes as the European Union examines the effects of the island’s Zero-Ten tax regime.

He said: “Tax jurisdictions shouldn’t create perverse incentives to investors and so deprive exchequers of legitimate income”.

“We will continue to promote and defend the Crown dependencies but only within the context of wider moves within the European Union in order to make sure there is full transparency,” he added.

That looks like support for my Plan B for these places to me.

And for once, that’s an OK ConDem policy.

 

Were he alive today, Jesus would be leading the campaign to crack down on tax-dodging billionaires and multinational corporations according to a really good article in the New Statesman (hat tip: TJN).

I agree.

And I’m not alone. This hymn was sung at the C of E church I attend last Sunday:

1. Inspired by love and anger, disturbed by need and pain,
Informed of God’s own bias we ask him once again:
"How long must some folk suffer? How long can few folk mind?
How long dare vain self interest turn prayer and pity blind?"

2. From those forever victims of heartless human greed,
Their cruel plight composes a litany of need:
"Where are the fruits of justice? Where are the signs of peace?
When is the day when prisoners and dreams find their release?"

3. From those forever shackled to what their wealth can buy,
The fear of lost advantage provokes the bitter cry,
"Don’t query our position! Don’t criticise our wealth!
Don’t mention those exploited by politics and stealth!"

4. To God, who through the prophets proclaimed a different age,
We offer earth’s indifference, its agony and rage:
"When will the wronged be righted? When will the kingdom come?
When will the world be generous to all instead of some?"

5. God asks, "Who will go for me? Who will extend my reach?
And who, when few will listen, will prophecy and preach?
And who, when few bid welcome, will offer all they know?
And who, when few dare follow, will walk the road I show?"

6. Amused in someone’s kitchen, asleep in someone’s boat,
Attuned to what the ancients exposed, proclaimed and wrote,
A saviour without safety, a tradesman without tools
Has come to tip the balance with fishermen and fools.

The hymn is by John Bell (a regular on Radio 4 Thought for the Day) – and I hope he’ll forgive my breach of his copyright – but it seems to me that this is a classic Christian message, bang on the nail – and a theme for those in UK Uncut who need the courage of faith. 

 

The decision has been taken – after 26 years of owning PCs, and 24 years of using MS operating systems I’ve just placed the order to replace my kit with Mac equipment.

I am bored by crashes, things not working and the sheer difficulty of some multimedia interaction that I want to do.

I cam to the conclusion there is only one way forward – and that’s Mac.

It’s a painful up front cost.

And no doubt a bit of a learning curve. But I don’t want to replace kit as often as I do – and people tell me I won’t – and I do want things to all work. And I’ve never yet heard tale of someone who has regretted it.

Of course there’s always a first but I admit the geek in me is just a bit excited about my early Christmas present.

 

There’s a fascinating comment on this blog this morning from someone from Guernsey called Doug. It’s thoughtful and considered and concludes:

I agree that [Low Value Consignment Relief VAT abuse] needs to be examined and the government should stop it because it damages the economy in this country and reduces the chances of a fair market in this country, but are we going to evacuate the people who live there like St Kilda, because I’m not sure there would be much left to do for Guernsey people without tax exploitation.

It’s an extraordinary argument – the so called entrepreneurial hub of the Channel Islands can think of nothing to do to make money bar tax exploitation.

First this gives lie to the claim that this facilitates enterprise. It doesn’t. It harms it.

Second, it blows apart the claim that it is entrepreneurial. It isn’t. It is manipulative.

Third, it shows the poverty of thinking in the governments and amongst the so called business leaders of these islands that they can come up with nothing else.

I have, of course. It’s called Plan B. It’s yours to have. But it would require real entrepreneurial belief and moral leadership to do it. Maybe that’s what’s missing. But don’t ever say I didn’t deliver an alternative. Because almost uniquely I have.

And finally – quietly note that just because there might be nothing else for burglars to do does not mean we don’t want to stop the crime. The analogy with tax exploitation is, of course, remarkably close. I put it to you that your argument is morally bankrupt – as morally bankrupt as tax exploitation.

 

I have been a pessimist on unemployment for a long time – believing that the ConDems will deliver 4 million unemployed before their policies are reversed.

I’m not alone in being a pessimist. The Guardian has a survey of experts on the issue today, and it’s gloomy reading. I quote selectively:

Andrew Goodwin at the Ernst & Young Item Club

These figures confirm that the improvement in the labour market, seen in the middle of the year, has ground to a halt.

[A]ll of the ILO indicators show worrying trends, with unemployment and inactivity rising.

Further evidence of a fragile labour market come from another steep decline in the number of full-time workers, allied to rises in the number of people being forced to accept part-time or temporary work because they can’t find a full-time job.

[R]ecent business surveys suggest that firms remain wary of hiring.

There is little in the way of good news in this release.

Ian Brinkley, associate director of The Work Foundation

The labour market recovery has stalled, but it is premature to talk about a "double-dip" recession.

The bigger concern is that we have still seen no turn-round in full-time jobs.

Until full-time jobs start to increase again the labour market will not be able to absorb large-scale job losses in the public sector. Unemployment in 2011 must then inevitably rise.

Nigel Meager, director of the Institute for Employment Studies

Unemployment stands at 2.5 million, having risen by 35,000, and it is clear that conditions remain very tough for jobseekers, with 5.5 unemployed people for every vacancy.

Charles Davis at the Centre for Economics and Business Research

In many cases, businesses are still too cautious about future prospects to aggressively expand headcount, especially ahead of a year in which the VAT rise and the effect of soaring commodity prices will squeeze households.

David Birne, an insolvency practitioner at HW Fisher

The latest unemployment figures are a taster of what is to come in 2011. This time next year we expect unemployment to be considerably higher than it is at present, as many more of Britain’s companies go to the wall.

For the UK’s businesses and their employees, 2011 is shaping up to be harsher than any of the past three years.

Anyone who thinks the private sector can take up the slack from the public sector is out of touch with what’s happening on the ground.

Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight

The labour market data are pretty disappointing overall and will do little to ease concern that unemployment is likely to rise in 2011 in the face of slower growth and increasing job losses in the public-sector.

Even if inflation expectations rise further, this is unlikely to translate into markedly increased pay awards as workers appear to have little bargaining power given high unemployment and an uncertain labour market outlook. Indeed, with real wage growth negative and the major fiscal squeeze increasingly kicking in from the start of 2011, it is hard to see consumer spending being anything else than limited for an extended period.

Admittedly, most of them aren’t as gloomy as me. But their words don’t fit their numbers in most cases. I stick by 4 million unemployed – I can’t see how it can be much less if there continue to be significant falls in public sector employment and no expansion in the private sector – which all agree is highly unlikely.

Take note George – people think you are wrong.

You’d better keep working on that alternative Gus – your bosses are going to need it.

 

The ConDems are sending some unusual Christmas cards:

At least 100,000 public servants will receive grim news over the Christmas holidays or soon after as councils, police forces and other public services race to meet a deadline of 1 January to formally announce job cuts.

So kind of Dave and Nick.

And not one of these job losses is necessary – and every one will give rise to further job losses in the private sector.

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